QUOTE OF THE DAY

--Robert Gates, Washington Post

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN

US and Pakistan: Different Wars on Terror - Mark Sappenfield, Christian Science Monitor

Tuesday at the United Nations President George Bush and his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Ali Zardari, reaffirmed the alliance of two nations that, in some respects, are fighting two different wars under the single banner of the war on terror.

The United States has recently stepped up missile attacks against targets in Pakistan as Washington becomes convinced that the Pakistani Army lacks either the will or ability to neutralize domestic terrorists. Yet Pakistanis counter that their Army is currently engaged in two offensives so large that they have displaced 300,000 people in areas bordering Afghanistan.

The different assessments of Pakistan's effort reflect the two nations' different goals in fighting terrorism. Pakistan wants peace within its borders. America prioritizes peace in Afghanistan, where security has deteriorated significantly this year. The two aims are not always congruous, and this disconnect is a fundamental part of rising tensions between the allies.

"Within the broader interest of fighting terrorism, their goals are divergent," says Moeed Yusuf, an analyst at Boston University.

America wants Pakistan to target terrorists that Pakistan has long tolerated. Since militancy emerged in Pakistan in the 1980s – then significantly funded by the US in order to counter the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan – Pakistan has sought to manage certain terrorist networks, not destroy them. Often, these terrorists have no grievance with Pakistan but use Pakistan as a base to attack Afghanistan.

More at The Christian Science Monitor.

Gates Is Pessimistic On Pakistani Support - Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post

Pakistan's leaders and military cannot publicly support US cross-border operations against militant groups in Pakistan's western tribal areas, but such strikes are needed to protect American troops in Afghanistan and defend the United States against its gravest terrorist threat, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said yesterday.

"We will do what is necessary to protect our troops," Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee. Asked whether Pakistan's government would back unilateral US military operations into Pakistan, he said: "I don't think they can do that."

Gates said that despite a growing insurgency in Afghanistan, fueled by fighters from Pakistan, the spring of 2009 is the earliest the Pentagon would be able to send as many as three more US combat brigades there to meet a request of American commanders for about 10,000 more troops.

More at The Washington Post.

Pakistan Military Push Helps US Troops, Gates Says - Julian E. Barnes and Henry Chu, Los Angeles Times

A recent push by Pakistan's army into the country's lawless tribal region has helped American troops fighting in the nearby border areas of Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told US senators Tuesday.

Gates praised the effort in deflecting demands by lawmakers that Pakistan's new civilian government permit more forceful US action against militants who battle American forces in Afghanistan and then flee to Pakistan.

"Regardless of the effectiveness of their operations, their mere presence and willingness to fight has reduced some of the pressure on the Afghan side of the border as the Taliban and others keep more troops at home to watch their backs, as it were," Gates said at a Senate hearing.

Pakistani army officials said Tuesday that the military push had resulted in the deaths of 50 militants and loss of one soldier over two days of clashes in the restive tribal belt. The government has touted its crackdown as proof of its commitment to rooting out Islamic extremism.

More at The Los Angeles Times.

IRAQ

Coalition Has Entered ‘Endgame’ in Iraq, Gates Says - John J. Kruzel, American Forces Press Service

Amid an 80-percent drop in violence and with further withdrawals of U.S. forces in sight, the coalition in Iraq has reached the “endgame,” Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said here today.

“I believe we have now entered that endgame – and our decisions today and in the months ahead will be critical to regional stability and our national security interests for years to come,” he told the Senate Armed Service Committee during a hearing on Iraq and Afghanistan.

Highlighting success in Iraq are reductions in U.S. casualties and overall violence, and the handover of Anbar province this month to Iraqi authority. Anbar, the 11th of 18 provinces now under Iraqi control, once was a hotbed of the Sunni insurgency and the scene of some of the war’s most contentious fighting.

In testimony the secretary submitted to lawmakers, he cited other measures of progress, including “incremental but significant” progress by the Iraqi parliament and -- with the exception of Iran -- an increased willingness on the part of Iraq’s neighboring countries to engage with Baghdad and help to stabilize the country.

But Gates tempered his analysis, saying serious challenges remain, including the failure of Iraq’s parliament to pass an election law, which likely will delay a planned election until December and could increase the possibility of politically motivated violence.

“Our military commanders do not yet believe our gains are necessarily enduring, and they believe that there are still many challenges and the potential for reversals in the future,” he said.

The secretary characterized the situation in Iraq as fragile, but said current conditions mark vast improvements since early 2007, when Gates became Pentagon chief.

More at American Forces Press Service.

Our Generals Almost Cost Us Iraq - Mackubin Thomas Owens, Wall Street Journal opinion

The dominant media storyline about the Iraq war holds that the decisions about how to conduct it pitted ignorant civilians - especially the president and secretary of defense - against the uniformed military, whose wise and sober advice was cavalierly ignored. The Bush administration's cardinal sin was interference in predominantly military affairs, starting with overruling the military on the size of the force that invaded Iraq in March 2003.

But it's not just the media that peddles this story. As Bob Woodward illustrates in his new book, The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008, it also resonates among many senior uniformed military officers.

The plausibility of the narrative rests on two questionable principles. The first is that soldiers have the right to a voice in making policy regarding the use of the military instrument -- that indeed they have the right to insist that their views be adopted. The second is that the judgment of soldiers is inherently superior to that of civilians when it comes to military affairs. Both of these principles are at odds with the American practice of civil-military relations, and with the historical record.

In our republic the uniformed military advises the civilian authorities, but has no right to insist that its views be adopted. Of course, uniformed officers have an obligation to stand up to civilian leaders if they think a policy is flawed. They must convey their concerns to civilian policy-makers forcefully and truthfully. But once a policy decision is made, soldiers are obligated to carry it out to the best of their ability, whether their advice is heeded or not.

More at The Wall Street Journal.

LEBANON / SYRIA

Fears Grow in Lebanon as 10,000 Syrian Troops Arrive on the Border - Nicholas Blanford, The Times

Syria has massed thousands of troops along its border with northern Lebanon in what officials in Beirut fear is a prelude to the first incursion since Syrian forces pulled out three years ago.

Although Damascus insists that its forces are conducting an anti-smuggling operation, the Lebanese Government is eyeing the moves with unease, believing that the unusual scale of the deployment has more to do with tensions between the two countries over recent sectarian clashes in northern Lebanon.

The Lebanese media report that between 8,000 and 10,000 Syrian special forces have taken up positions along some of the hills overlooking the Kabir.

Their surprise deployment comes after several months of clashes in Tripoli, northern Lebanon, pitting the majority Sunnis against the minority Alawites, an offshoot of Shia Islam.

More at The Times.

IRAN

What Drives Ahmadinejad's Combative Rhetoric - Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor

Amid the combative rhetoric expected from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday at the United Nations, he will almost certainly renew his call for the quick return of the Shiite Messiah to vanquish oppressors and bring perfection to the world.

For Shiite Muslims, the eventual return of the Imam Mahdi is an article of faith – equivalent to the second coming of Christ for many Christians. While few Iranian politicians so publicly embrace this Messianic worldview, Mr. Ahmadinejad and his aides have stated more and more frequently that their administration is governed by the Mahdi.

Such beliefs guide Ahmadinejad in both domestic and international affairs and help explain his stance on Iran's nuclear program, his unwillingness to succumb to US demands to curb enrichment, and why his government continues to back anti-Israeli and anti-American militants in the region.

President Bush, who will also speak Tuesday at the gathering of world leaders in New York, will probably lash out at Iran for precisely this stance and call for additional UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

Critics in Iran – many of them clerics – charge that Ahmadinejad's conviction that the "end of times" is near has brought Iran dangerously close to war with the US and Israel.

More at The Christian Science Monitor.

US FOREIGN POLICY

Report Seeks Engagement With Muslims by Diplomacy - Laurie Goodstein, New York Times

After 18 months spent examining the deteriorating relations between the United States and the Muslim world during the Bush administration, a diverse group of American leaders will release a report in Washington on Wednesday calling for an overhaul of American strategy to reverse the spread of terrorism and extremism.

The report recommends more diplomatic engagement, even with Iran and other adversaries, and a major investment in economic development in Muslim countries to create jobs for alienated youth. It calls on the next president to use his Inaugural Address to signal a shift in approach, to immediately renounce the use of torture, and to appoint a special envoy within the first three months to jump-start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

The report, “Changing Course: A New Direction for US Relations with the Muslim World,” was produced by 34 leaders drawn from religious, business, military, foreign policy, academic, foundation and nonprofit circles. The group included Democrats like Madeleine K. Albright, who was secretary of state under President Bill Clinton, and two former Republican congressmen, Vin Weber and Steve Bartlett.

It also included Thomas Dine, a former executive director of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and Ingrid Mattson, president of the Islamic Society of North America. One-third of the group were Muslim Americans. The members were selected by the sponsoring organizations, Search for Common Ground and the Consensus Building Institute, which both promote nonviolent conflict resolution.

More at The New York Times.

MODERN NATION-STATES

Onward to a Hollow State - John Robb, Global Guerrillas blog

The modern nation-state is in a secular decline, made inevitable by the rise of a global market system. Even developed nations, like the US, are not immune to this process. The decline is at first gradual and then accelerates until it reaches a final end-point: a hollow state. The hollow state has the trappings of a modern nation-state ("leaders", membership in international organizations, regulations, laws, and a bureaucracy) but it lacks any of the legitimacy, services, and control of its historical counter-part. It is merely a shell that has some influence over the spoils of the economy. The real power rests in the hands of corporations and criminal/guerrilla groups that vie with each other for control of sectors of wealth production. For the individual living within this state, life goes on, but it is debased in a myriad of ways.

More at Global Guerrillas and ThreatsWatch.

NEWS & OPINION NOTES

Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas

US Unable to Spare Afghan Troops - BBC News
'Better-armed' Taliban Tests French - Agence France-Presse
Afghan Defense Minister Recommends Border Region Task Force - AFPS
Pakistan: 60 Suspected Militants Killed in Recent Fighting - Voice of America
Pakistanis Say Suspected US Drone Shot Down - Associated Press
Palin Meets with Afghan Leader - Washington Times
Failing Afghanistan - Washington Post opinion
Mission Creep Dispatch: John Nagl - Mother Jones blog
Local vs. National Security - Intel Dump blog
Pakistani Military Fires on US Helicopters at Border - Long War Journal blog
Kidnapping, Pakistani Taliban-style - Military Watch blog

Pakistan Terrorism

Gates: Terror Groups in Pakistan Greatest Threat - Voice of America
Pakistan Hit by More Attacks - The Australian
Pakistan Unrest Raises Fresh Calls for US Aid - Reuters
Tough Talk, but Can Pakistan Deliver? - Long War Journal blog
Hamid Gul: Al-Qaeda's Man In Pakistan - ThreatsWatch blog

Iraq

Iraqi Trade Officials Ousted in Corruption Sweep - New York Times
$13 Billion Wasted or Stolen in Iraq - Washington Post
Dear Iraqi Friends - New York Times opinion
Maliki the Nationalist - Abu Muqawama blog

Iran

Ahmadinejad Blames Bush for Financial Woe - The Times
At UN, Protesters Target Iran On Rights - Washington Post
Russia Won’t Meet With US on Iranian Nuclear Program - New York Times

The Long War

Sept. 11 Plotter Turns Tables on Military Judge - Los Angeles Times
9/11 Mastermind Takes Lead Role in Gitmo Courtroom - Associated Press

US Department of Defense

Green on Green - Intel Dump blog

US Army

Does LTG Bill Caldwell Read this Blog? - Abu Muqawama blog

US Coast Guard

The Technology and Culture of a Generation Gap - Information Dissemination blog

United Nations

UN Chief Calls for 'Global Leadership' - Agence France Presse
In UN Speech, Bush Focuses on Terrorism - Washington Post
UN Delegates Note Bush's Shift to Collaboration - International Herald Tribune
Bush Attacks Iran and Syria in Final United Nations Speech - Daily Telegraph
Bush: World Must Stand United Against Terrorism - Associated Press
Bush Chides Syria and Iran at UN - BBC News
General Assembly Required - Boston Globe editorial

Africa

South Africa in Crisis as 11 Minsters Resign - The Times
S. African Leader's Cabinet Resigns - Washington Post
Resignations Rock S. Africa Government - BBC News
South African Cabinet Upheaval Was False Alarm - New York Times
Mbeki's Ouster New Hurdle as Zimbabwe Deal Stalls- Associated Press
Jacob Zuma's Challenge - The Times editorial

Americas

Hurricanes Shift Debate On Cuban Embargo - Washington Post
Like Venezuela, so Ecuador? - Washington Times opinion
Russia / Venezuala: The Sea Hype of the Week - Information Dissemination blog

Asia / Pacific

2008 Not a Lucky Year for China - Los Angeles Times
Burma Releases Longest-Serving Political Prisoner - Voice of America
Burmese Junta Releases Dissident - The Times
Japan Party Leader Confirmed as Premier - New York Times

Europe

Italy Deploys Troops after Mafia Violence Near Naples - Los Angeles Times
Macedonian Quandary - Washington Times opinion
Russian Civil-Military Relations: Putin’s Legacy - Kings of War blog

Middle East

Lebanon Watches its Salafis - Christian Science Monitor
Tourists Kidnapped in Egypt Held in Sudan - Voice of America
Israel's Slipping Democracy - Christian Science Monitor opinion
Red On Red: Hamas v. al-Qaeda - ThreatsWatch blog

South Asia

Terrorism’s Impact Grows as Indian Election Nears - New York Times
Anti-Christian Attacks Flare in India - Christian Science Monitor
'Pain' of Sri Lanka Aid Pullout - BBC News

BOOKS

In a Time of War - Bill Murphy

The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.

Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor

This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.

The Strongest Tribe - Bing West

From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.

Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson

After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.

We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway

In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.

3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.

6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.