QUOTE OF THE DAY
Before we rush more troops into Afghanistan, we must answer basic questions about our strategy for the region and how our efforts in Afghanistan support that strategy. Good tactics and more troops are not a substitute for a strategy – and in fact can significantly raise the cost of a bad strategy. Both candidates need to explain the strategy that justifies such a commitment.
--TX Hammes, Small Wars Journal
AFGHANISTAN
Progress in Afghanistan Gets Rockier - James Kitfield, National Journal
After two tour extensions the 24th MEU is scheduled to leave Afghanistan this month. Until the Pentagon can follow through on recently announced plans to deploy an additional 4,500 troops to Afghanistan early next year -- still well short of the 10,000 urgently requested by US commanders here -- there are no fresh US or NATO units to take the place of the Marines. That fact highlights an inconvenient reality: NATO and the United States remain chronically short of troops and equipment in Afghanistan. Taliban commanders understand that, too.
Heavy pressure from the US to squeeze additional forces out of NATO at last spring's Bucharest Summit netted only about 2,000 troops; and badly needed helicopters donated by the Czech Republic are still languishing in that country because NATO lacks the money to transfer them to Afghanistan.
The plan now is for the 24th MEU to pass along the mission of "holding and building" in Garmsir to the Afghan army and the national government in Kabul. Yet Afghanistan's 63,000-man army is woefully inadequate to sustain security gains in a country of 30 million people, a majority of whom are illiterate and live at subsistence level.
Six years after taking power, a weak central government in Kabul struggles to extend its control beyond the capital. Afghanistan has few roads and some of the most challenging terrain in the world. Government corruption is so pervasive that one knowledgeable Afghan official in Kabul privately estimated that government employees siphon the equivalent of $5,000 per Afghan citizen from the pool of international aid each year. Afghan's 79,000 national police, meanwhile, are better known as shakedown artists than law enforcers.
More at The National Journal.
IRAQ
US Officials Warn Against Leaving Iraq Forces On Their Own Too Soon - Julian E. Barnes and Tina Susman, Los Angeles Times
As Iraq's government presses Washington for a deadline to withdraw American troops, top US military officials Monday cautioned against pushing Iraqi forces to take control too quickly -- a warning underscored by bombs that killed at least 35 people.
The attacks, on the eve of Army Gen. David H. Petraeus' hand-over of command of US forces in Iraq to Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, were a reminder of the challenges ahead as Odierno tries to hold on to security gains with fewer US troops amid clear signs that insurgents remain active.
Odierno will be elevated to full general before the hand-over today, which comes 19 months after Petraeus arrived in Iraq and instituted counterinsurgency tactics credited with leading the turnaround in violence.
Odierno's No. 2 commander, Army Lt. Gen. Lloyd Austin, warned Monday that just as security gains were lost in 2005 when Petraeus' predecessor hurried Iraqi security forces to stand on their own, more recent gains also were fragile.
"I am not sure pushing them forward is the right thing to do," Austin said of Iraqi security forces. "We tried that once before, and it didn't work."
At a meeting with journalists, Austin said Iraqi forces might be ready to stand on their own by 2011, which Iraq's government would like set as the deadline for US troop withdrawal, but events "could slow down their evolution."
US officials have noted that the Iraqi forces, though greatly improved, still suffer a lack of logistical, intelligence and other support expertise. "You have to work with them to ensure they have the competence and confidence that will guarantee success in the future," Austin said. "There is still some work to be done."
More at The Los Angeles Times.
Iraq's Nouri Maliki Breaking free of US - Ned Parker, Los Angeles Times
Once dependent on American support to keep his job, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has consolidated power and is asserting his independence, sharply reducing Washington's influence over the future of Iraq.
Iraq's police and army now operate virtually on their own, and with Washington's mandate from the United Nations to provide security here expiring in less than four months, Maliki is insisting on imposing severe limits on the long-term US military role, including the withdrawal of American forces from all cities by June.
America's eroded leverage has left Iran, with its burgeoning trade and political ties, in a better position to affect Iraqi government policies.
It also means that whichever US presidential candidate is elected -- Republican John McCain, who insists on what some see as a vaguely defined American victory in Iraq, or Democrat Barack Obama, who has long called for a timeline for withdrawing US combat troops -- will have less ability to sway Baghdad than did the Bush administration.
"If the next president waits too long, our diminishing leverage will likely disappear altogether, leaving us with two strategic options: resign ourselves to 'ride the tiger' -- that is, accept that we have to simply accept what the Iraqi government does and, at most, mitigate or help buffer the consequences -- or jump off the tiger altogether," said Iraq expert Colin Kahl of the Center for a New American Security.
The Maliki government's assertion of power has brought an end to the aggressive approach of the US during its troop buildup last year. American forces frequently intervened in warfare between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. They even challenged Maliki's Shiite-led government by striking alliances with former Sunni insurgents and arresting Shiite police and army commanders implicated in sectarian violence. Since enhancing his strength in a successful spring offensive against a rival Shiite militia, Maliki has insisted that all American troops leave by 2011, unless Iraq requests otherwise. Shiite officials give mixed signals on whether they would ask US military advisors to stay.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
RUSSIA / GEORGIA
Georgia Offers Fresh Evidence on War’s Start - Dan Bilefsky, C. J. Chivers, Thom Shanker and Michael Schwirtz, New York Times
A new front has opened between Georgia and Russia, now over which side was the aggressor whose military activities early last month ignited the lopsided five-day war. At issue is new intelligence, inconclusive on its own, that nonetheless paints a more complicated picture of the critical last hours before war broke out.
Georgia has released intercepted telephone calls purporting to show that part of a Russian armored regiment crossed into the separatist enclave of South Ossetia nearly a full day before Georgia’s attack on the capital, Tskhinvali, late on Aug. 7.
Georgia is trying to counter accusations that the long-simmering standoff over South Ossetia, which borders Russia, tilted to war only after it attacked Tskhinvali. Georgia regards the enclave as its sovereign territory.
The intercepts circulated last week among intelligence agencies in the United States and Europe, part of a Georgian government effort to persuade the West and opposition voices at home that Georgia was under invasion and attacked defensively. Georgia argues that as a tiny and vulnerable nation allied with the West, it deserves extensive military and political support.
Georgia also provided audio files of the intercepts along with English translations to The New York Times, which made its own independent translation from the original Ossetian into Russian and then into English.
More at The New York Times.
Georgia: West Heads for New Confrontation with Russia - Bruno Waterfield, Daily Telegraph
NATO served notice on the Kremlin that it would offer every support to Georgia's ambitions to join the Western Alliance despite the continued presence of Russian troops in the country's breakaway regions.
In a high-profile visit to Georgia's capital Tbilisi, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, NATO's secretary general, condemned the Russian occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, even as Moscow continued to insist that both regions were no longer part of Georgian territory.
But he also helped Russia's neighbour to take a significant step towards its controversial membership of NATO. He said that the launch of a new NATO-Georgia commission to co-ordinate Georgia's bid would "function to enhance and accelerate our co-operation and integration."
He added: "The NATO delegation has come to support Georgia and to support its ambition and wish for euro-Atlantic integration.
More at The Daily Telegraph.
US Envoy Says Conflicts With Enclaves Shouldn’t Keep Georgia Out of NATO - Dan Bilefsky and Stephen Castle, New York Times
The West should not use Georgia’s conflicts with the Russian-backed breakaway enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as an excuse to keep Georgia out of NATO, the United States ambassador to the alliance said Monday.
The NATO charter stipulates that potential members must resolve outstanding border issues before joining, which could block Georgia’s aspirations. But the American ambassador, Kurt Volker, said in an interview that allowing Russia’s actions to affect Georgia’s chances of joining the alliance would be tantamount to the West’s “giving Russia a veto over Georgia’s future.”
In a two-day visit here, the NATO secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, and ambassadors from the 26 member nations inaugurated a NATO-Georgia commission, which Georgia hopes will help clear a path for its eventual membership.
But the war between Georgia and Russia has exposed deep fissures within NATO over how to respond to a newly assertive Russia, and Mr. de Hoop Scheffer made no commitment on when Georgia would be invited to join.
More at The New York Times.
IRAN
Nuclear Agency Says Iran Has Improved Enrichment - Elaine Sciolino, New York Times
Iran has substantially improved the efficiency of its centrifuges that produce enriched uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday, indicating that the nation has overcome some of the technical challenges that had plagued its enrichment program.
In a six-page report, the agency charged the Iranians with continuing to stonewall about what some Western governments suspected was Iran’s past research on designing a nuclear weapon. The agency acknowledged that it had failed “to make any substantial progress” in its investigation.
“We seem to be at a dead end,” said a senior official with links to the agency. “We would describe it as a gridlock.”
The report is another setback to an agency initiative begun last summer that gave Iran fixed deadlines to resolve questions about nuclear activities in the past two decades and asked the United States and other countries for patience in pursuing new sanctions.
In another revelation, the agency said for the first time that a foreign expert or group of experts may have helped Iran with experiments on a detonator that could be used in the implosion of a nuclear weapon.
More at The New York Times.
Nuke Inspectors at 'Dead End' in Iran. More Sanctions Ahead? - Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor
Iran has stopped providing information to United Nations nuclear inspectors about allegations that it harbors a secret weapons program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Monday.
"Iran so far has not been forthcoming in replying to our questions, and we seem to be at a dead end there," said a senior UN official on Monday.
The report comes as speculation persists about an Israeli, or even American, strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure to set back a program they insist aspires to build an atomic bomb. Iran says its sole ambition is to produce nuclear power.
"The IAEA has no interest in provoking a US confrontation with Iran," says Natalie Goldring, at the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University in Washington, noting the IAEA's history of detailed factual work.
"The unfortunate aspect of this sort of report is that it does encourage the hardliners of the Bush administration who would like 'do something' about Iran before leaving office."
In May, Tehran provided the UN with what it called a "final" 117-page presentation to address charges that it says resulted from forgeries to show weapons-related work in Iran. Since then, lack of Iranian cooperation has led to the impasse with the IAEA.
More at the Christian Science Monitor, Washington Post and Jerusalem Post.
IMPERIAL HUBRIS?
Rethinking US Role - Bruce Fein, Washington Times opinion
If the United States neglects to rethink its purpose informed by the genius and practice of the Founding Fathers, it is destined to self-destruct like every other empire from hubris and overreach. At present, the Republic is undergoing a metamorphosis into executive despotism featuring escalating taxes and permanent warfare because of staggering ignorance of the nation's birth certificate among officeholders, candidates and the public.
The Constitution's preamble explains that the national interest of the United States lies in providing for the "common defense" and "secur[ing] the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity." The Founding Fathers denied that the United States was saddled with either a moral or legal responsibility to implant freedom throughout the planet.
None ever hinted at a national duty to overthrow the French Bourbons, the Russian Romanovs, or the Ottoman Sultans. Nor did they believe Americans would be made either safer or freer by attempting to cram American democracy down the throats of feudalistic, tribal, sectarian or autocratic foreign political cultures, for example, Afghanistan, Iraq, Russia or China. The exercise would be futile because the knowledge needed to pluck the flower of democracy from the nettle of longstanding tyranny is beyond human grasp.
More at The Washington Times.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Iraq
Gates Praises Petraeus on Eve of Duty Transfer - New York Times
Gates Notes Shift in Mission as Iraq Command Changes Hands - AFPS
Gates in Iraq to Mark New Phase of Conflict - Voice of America
Gates Foresees Narrower US Combat Role in Iraq - Associated Press
Successful Anbar Model Validates Approach in Iraq, Admiral Says - AFPS
Iraq Bombings Leave 30 Dead - Washington Post
Bombs Kill 34 People in Iraq as US Defense Chief Visits - Voice of America
Female Suicide Bomber Kills 22 in Iraq - Daily Telegraph
Iraqi-led Operation Nets 63 al-Qaida in Iraq Suspects - AFPS
The Times They Are A-Changing - Wall Street Journal opinion
The Bush Doctrine - Think Tank blog
Iraq’s Bravest - Contentions blog
Pawns And Politics? - ThreatsWatch blog
Getting The Genie Back In The Bottle - Strategy Page blog
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
General David Petraeus Takes on Afghanistan - The Times
Defense Department Announces New Forces for Afghanistan Mission - AFPS
Pakistan Allegedly Repulses US Raid - Washington Post
24 Militants Killed in Border Action Lauded by US - Associated Press
Afghan National Army Air Corps Increases Capability - AFPS
Afghans Free Son of Pakistani Al-Qaeda Suspect - Washington Post
Willing To Win in Afghanistan? - Washington Post opinion
3/8 Marines Head for a Deteriorating Afghanistan - Military Watch blog
Afghanistan Mission Getting Even More Precarious? - Kings of War blog
The Taliban Calls Out The Canadians - Strategy Page blog
Russia / Georgia / NATO
Georgians Blame Russia for Forest Fires - Washington Post
Grand Theft Auto: Russian Army - Intel Dump blog
Who Deals Better with Putin? Sarkozy or Adam Smith? - Westhawk blog
Iran
UN Nuclear Watchdog Says Iran Blocking Arms Probe - Associated Press
The Long War
Australia: Defence to Move to Countering Terror - The Australian
Al Qaeda Goes Dark - Strategy Page blog
Public Diplomacy
War of Ideas Update - Abu Aardvark blog
World
Global Slavery at a High, but Reasons for Hope - Christian Science Monitor
United Nations
Nicaraguan Priest, Former FM Taking a Top UN Post - Los Angeles Times
Africa
Mugabe Signs a Deal to Share His Power - New York Times
Power-Sharing Deal in Zimbabwe - Washington Post
Power Shifts as Zimbabwe Deal Signed - Los Angeles Times
Zimbabwe Political Rivals Sign Landmark Power-Sharing Deal - Voice of America
Zimbabwe Rivals Sign Power Pact - The Australian
Zimbabwe: Can Rivals Make Pact Work? - Christian Science Monitor
US and EU Keep Zimbabwe Sanctions - BBC News
Zimbabweans Hail New Era - Daily Telegraph
Zimbabwe Opposition Supporters Brave a Public Rally - Los Angeles Times
Pay for Land, Zimbabwe Leaders Tell Britain - The Times
Not-Yet-After Mugabe - Wall Street Journal editorial
Zimbabwe's Gamble - The Australian editorial
Rock-Paper-Scissors in Zimbabwe - Christian Science Monitor editorial
Zimbabwe Faces Quite a Challenge - Daily Telegraph opinion
Nigerian Militants Follow Up Threats - Voice of America
S. Africa: Thabo Mbeki Faces Troubles at Home - The Australian
Militants Kill 12 Mauritanian Soldiers in Ambush - Associated Press
Somalia: France Frees Sailors from Pirates - BBC News
Shabaab Vows to Close Mogadishu's Airport - Long War Journal blog
Americas
Bolivian Rivals See Progress in Talks to End Violence - Christian Science Monitor
South American Leaders Hold Emergency Session on Bolivia - Los Angeles Times
Summit of Leaders Aims to End Crisis in Bolivia - Associated Press
Bolivia on the Brink - Washington Post editorial
US Urges Cuba to Accept Aid - Washington Post
Kearsarge Delivers More Relief Supplies to Haiti - AFPS
Asia / Pacific
Burma's Junta Eases Restrictions on Opposition - New York Times
Europe
Ukraine Government Falls Apart - BBC News
Middle East
Departing Olmert Urges Palestinian Deal - United Press International
Olmert Accuses Settlers of 'Pogrom' Against Palestinians - Voice of America
Syrian Group: Mashaal's Deputy Killed - Jerusalem Post
South Asia
'India's bin Laden' Named as Bomb Suspect - The Times
New Delhi Bombings Seen as Declaration of 'War' - Christian Science Monitor
Manhunt for Indian Bomb Suspect - The Australian
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
16-18 September - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.
17 September - The Iranian Puzzle Piece: Understanding Iran in the Global Context (Public Event - Symposium). Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the by the Marine Corps University (MCU) and the Marine Corps University Foundation to enhance the overall understanding of Iran, exploring its internal dynamics, regional perspectives, and extra-regional factors and examining its near-term political and strategic options and their potential impact on the course of action of the United States and the USMC.
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.
