The Next Iraq Phase - David Ignatius, Washington Post

... The question is whether this Iraqi renaissance can continue as the United States reduces its surge of combat troops. The Iraqi military is still far from ready to take over the country's security. The military's transport systems won't be finished until the summer of 2009, and it could be two years before Iraq's military can operate fully independent of U.S. forces.

Gen. David Petraeus and other top military officials have begun debating what the post-surge level of U.S. troops should be. The commanders want a pause for assessment after July, when the last of the five additional combat brigades that made up the surge is withdrawn and the U.S. troop presence returns to its prior level of 15 brigades, or about 130,000 soldiers.

The debate centers on how long this pause should last and whether it should be followed by more troop cuts. Petraeus, who as field commander doesn't want to risk losing his hard-won gains, is said to favor an assessment period of more than three months, and perhaps leaving the full 15 brigades in place through the end of 2008. President Bush, who would like to leave office next January with Iraq as secure as possible, may also oppose further troop reductions after July...