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The London Times, Associated Press and Reuters are reporting that al-Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri has been captured by Iraqi troops in Mosul. The capture was also reported on Iraqi television though there has been no official denial or confirmation from Multi-National Forces-Iraq or the Pentagon. Al-Masri took over al-Qaida in Iraq after Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed 7 June 2006 in a US airstrike northeast of Baghdad. From the reports:

"The leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, has been arrested, the Arabic television station al-Arabiya reported on Friday, quoting the Iraqi Defense Ministry."

"Arabiya said Muhajir had been detained in a joint Iraqi-U.S. operation in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. The US military said it had no information on the reports at this stage..."

"US officials said al-Masri joined an extremist group led by al-Qaida's No.2 official. He later joined al-Qaida training camps in Afghanistan in 1999 and trained as a car bombing expert before traveling to Iraq after the US-led invasion in 2003."

James Joyner at Outside the Beltway probably has it right as to the significance of al-Masri's capture:

I doubt this will make any terrific difference. We’ve captured or “otherwise dealt with” more number twos and number threes than you can shake a stick at over the years and buried this guy’s predecessor under a ton of rubble. Still, if true, it at least means the Iraqi security forces are getting better.

News Links

Al-Qaeda in Iraq Leader Arrested In Mosul - Freeman and Sabah, Washington Post
Al-Qaeda in Iraq Leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri Captured - James Hider, London Times
Iraqis Report Capture of al Qaeda in Iraq Leader - CNN News
Iraqi Army Says Iraqi al-Qaida Leader Arrested - Associated Press
Al Qaeda's Leader in Iraq Arrested - Reuters
Al-Qaeda Iraq Leader 'Arrested' - BBC News

Blog Links

Abu Ayyub al-Masri Arrested - James Joyner, Outside the Beltway
Al-Masri the Egyptian Falls - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club
Favorable Indicators - Jules Crittenden, Forward Movement
Abu Ayyub al Masri Reported Captured - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
AQI # 1 Busted - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama

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Guerrilla Warfare and the Indonesian Strategic Psyche
by Emmet McElhatton, Small Wars Journal

Download interim version of article as PDF

Some analysts of Indonesian affairs have tried to rebut “the conventional wisdom that Indonesia is simply a violent society” and reject “arguments that locate the origins of violence in cultural characteristics that highlight the irrationality of the Indonesian crowd”, asserting instead that military and political elites, predominantly Javanese by implication, use this convenient cultural epithet to mask their role in the instigation, manipulation and coordination of politically expedient violence. Of course all national or ethnic cultures have violent facets, a reflection of both their humanity and their will to survive the depredations of other cultures – even that most civilised of cultures, the Melians of Thucydides’, defended themselves heroically when crunch, in the form of Athens, came calling. This accepted, then Indonesians should not be singled out with a “more violent” tag any more than other comparable societies. Also a reading of all but the most partisan histories of post-war Indonesia demonstrate clearly that the many violent episodes that blot the collective memory are a series of power struggles between opposing elites with the common denominator an Indonesian Army unrestrained in its willingness to use extreme violence to maintain its notion of order.

Acknowledging this, we need also note that there are some aspects to Indonesian social, and particularly martial, culture that do indicate a different approach to violence and its utilisation than the strategic culture of, for example, New Zealand would countenance. For the purposes of this brief survey I will consider the notion of Javanese culture as the dominant force in Indonesian strategic culture and then examine this through a consideration of Indonesian guerrilla warfare theory.

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UK Troops and US Marines Join Forces to Tackle the Taliban in Garmsir

By MoD Defence News via British Defence Staff - United States (BDS-US)

UK troops working as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in southern Afghanistan have been taking part in a joint operation with US Marines aimed at disrupting Taliban activity in the volatile Garmsir area of Helmand province...

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Are you deploying to an Iraq Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) or embedded Provincial Reconstruction Team (ePRT)? If so, then the State Department’s Foreign Service Institute has a course you should take. The Iraq PRT Orientation course provides members of Iraq Provincial Reconstruction Teams, and associated personnel, with critical skills needed to function in an interagency organization in a combat environment. The Small Wars Journal has posted a course brochure received earlier today via e-mail. The brochure contains a course outline, dates for the 5-day course (yes only 5 days, but better than no days we guess) and contact information. The FSI web page contains information on additional courses you may be interested in.

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13 May 2008 - After the Iraqi Offensive: An Address by Colonel H. R. McMaster (Public Event). Washington, D.C. Sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute. The government of Iraq has made great strides both militarily and politically over the past year and a half. After dramatically reducing al Qaeda in Iraq’s operational capability, the Iraqi Security Forces have successfully undertaken operations to reclaim segments of Basra and Sadr City from Shiite extremist elements. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al Maliki has won increasing support from the major Sunni, Kurdish, and Shiite blocs due to his leadership in this offensive. Moreover, in a sign of bottom-up reconciliation, nearly 90 percent of Sunnis polled declared their intention to participate in the October provincial elections. How will Iraqi political dynamics evolve as operations against Shiite extremists continue? How will the security situation in Iraq evolve as the July drawdown in U.S. forces approaches? How have recent events in Iraq influenced our understanding of nation-building strategy? Having recently returned from working with Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General David Petraeus in Iraq, Colonel H. R. McMaster will address these and other questions at AEI on May 13. Following his address, Michèle Flournoy of the Center for a New American Security and AEI’s Thomas Donnelly will join Colonel McMaster for a discussion of these issues.

15 May 2008 - Ground Truth: The Future of U.S. Land Power (Public Event). Washington, D.C. Sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute. In Ground Truth: The Future of U.S. Land Power (AEI Press, May 2008), AEI scholars Thomas Donnelly and Frederick W. Kagan pose a series of urgent questions for policymakers: What is the strategic role of American ground forces? What missions will these forces undertake in the future? What is the nature of land warfare in the twenty-first century? What qualities are necessary to succeed on the battlefields of the Long War? What is the ideal size and configuration of the force--and how much will it cost? On Thursday, May 15, Donnelly, Kagan, and Kathleen Hicks of the Center for Strategic and International Studies will discuss these and other questions about the size, shape, and costs of the land forces the United States will require in the years ahead.

17-19 June 2008- 3rd Annual North American Security Colloquium: Wars Without Borders (Public Event). Kingston, Ontario. Sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Queen's Centre for International Relations, Defence Management Studies at Queen's University, and the Canadian Forces Land Doctrine and Training System. The conflicts today in Iraq and in Afghanistan are examples of what some leading scholars and many commanders have termed “continuous wars among the people.” This type of conflict is developing or occurring in other regions of the world, in Africa and in Latin America for example. In many of these situations traditional and legal borders no longer define or contain the conflict, nor do obvious sovereign entities control belligerents. International commitments to control these conflicts necessarily demand complex, multi-dimensional diplomatic, military, police, and humanitarian responses. What has been learned about such conflicts from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may to some degree be transferable to conflicts in other regions. Assuming that the international community may well face future operations characterized by regional, borderless “wars among the people”, the centres at Queen’s University and their partners propose convening a distinguished group of approximately 200 experts from academic, military, governmental, and international institutions to examine how best to prepare commanders, military units and governments to plan for and conduct complex, multi-dimensional stability campaigns in this new environment.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.

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National Public Radio's Guy Raz has a combination article, audio report / interview and link to a recent Army AAR (The King and I) that has been circulating via e-mail throughout the military community.

From Army Focus on Counterinsurgency Debated Within:

An internal Pentagon report is raising concerns about whether the Army's focus on counterinsurgency has weakened its ability to fight conventional battles. The report's authors — all colonels with significant combat experience — say the Army is "mortgaging its ability to (successfully) fight" in the future.

The report, recently obtained by NPR, is the latest twist in an ongoing debate within the Army over whether it is now too focused on counterinsurgency training. The counterinsurgency doctrine emphasizes the use of minimal force, with the intent of winning the hearts and minds of a civilian population...

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates sent a subtle but firm message to the Army a couple of weeks ago when he announced that Gen. David Petraeus — a staunch counterinsurgency advocate — has been nominated to take the helm of Central Command, where he will oversee the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The post is arguably the highest-profile assignment in the U.S. military today.

"I would say that Gen. Petraeus' promotion is an affirmation of the fact that the counterinsurgency doctrine he wrote and the counterinsurgency strategy that he implemented in Iraq was successful," says Lt. Col. John Nagl, one of the Army's top experts on counterinsurgency doctrine...

Col. Sean MacFarland was among the first to successfully apply counterinsurgency doctrine in Iraq in 2006. And yet he was a co-author of the recent internal Army report suggesting that the Army is far too focused on counterinsurgency training. This singular focus, he writes, is weakening the Army.

The report cites field artillery as an example of an area that has suffered from inattention. Since 1775, artillery units have served as the backbone of the U.S. Army. But today, a stunning 90 percent of these units are unqualified to fire artillery accurately — the lowest level in history.

MacFarland declined to be interviewed for this story. But views like his have been amplified publicly by an iconoclastic, Berkeley-educated officer, Lt. Col. Gian Gentile.

"Due to five years in Iraq and six years in Afghanistan, I believe that the U.S. Army has become a counterinsurgency-only force," Gentile said recently during a public lecture in Washington. He also declined to comment for this story.

Gentile, who served two tours in Iraq, is perhaps the most outspoken internal critic of what he calls the Army's dangerous obsession with counterinsurgency...

In a recent posting on a counterinsurgency blog, Col. Peter Mansoor, a top aide to Petraeus who also helped write Field Manual 3-24, accused Gentile of "misreading the history of what's happening in Iraq...

Much of this debate has played out here on SWJ and the Council. Expect more in the coming months...

Discuss at Small Wars Council

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Inside Defense (subscription required) is reporting the Defense Department is forming seven working groups to examine "priority" roles and missions issues, a few of which could plunge the military services into bitter internecine turf battles and give the Bush administration's Office of the Secretary of Defense a parting opportunity this summer to realign the defense bureaucracy.

The priority issues include ISR / Unmanned Aerial Systems, Intratheater Airlift / Joint Cargo Aircraft, Cyberspace Operations / Information Operations, Irregular Warfare, Excessively Overlapping Service Capabilities, DOD Governance Roles and Responsibilities, and Supporting Interagency Roles and Missions.

On Irregular Warfare Inside Defense had this to say:

The fourth issue group will focus on irregular warfare. It will be led by Michael Vickers, assistant secretary of defense for special operations / low-intensity conflict and interdependent capabilities; Marine Corps General James Mattis, commander of U.S. Joint Forces Command; and Lieutenant General John Sattler of the Joint Staff, also a Marine.

This group will examine irregular warfare capabilities that are common to special operations forces and general purpose forces in order to explore opportunities to forge greater integration and interoperability between the two, according to the draft document.

"What DOD organizational structure would provide the best oversight for irregular warfare, maximize efficiencies across DOD components, better balance risk and investment priorities, enhance future capabilities development and ensure effective operations?" asks the draft document.

With the Army and Marine Corps shouldering the bulk of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, this issue group will examine how "to develop air and maritime capabilities for counterinsurgency and foreign internal defense," according to the document.

For those who subscribe to Inside Defense there is much more on roles and missions issues and the upcoming review. Good read...

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New Army Handbooks Focus on First 100 Days of Combat by Navy Seaman William Selby.

American Forces Press Service

The U.S. Army has published three new handbooks to help soldiers prepare for the first 100 days of combat, officials said on a teleconference with online journalists and “bloggers” yesterday. (Transcript).

Army Col. Steven Mains, director of the Center for Army Lesson Learned, and Milton Hileman, a senior military analyst, explained that there was a small but clear rise in the number of casualties early in a combat deployment, concentrated in the first 100 days.

“It’s not a new phenomenon that … we just figured out and nobody had ever seen before, but it’s something we could clearly show was the case in Iraq,” Mains said.

“And so it drove us to say, well, what do they know at day 250 that they really need to know during those first 100 days?”

After an extensive interview process with approximately 1700 soldiers, Mains and Hileman said that there were three key elements to surviving the first three months; avoiding complacency, good decisions made by junior leaders, and the efficient staff processes at the battalion and brigade level for commanders...

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