Purpose

The new administration confronts an unusually long and daunting list of pressing foreign policy problems: ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the continuing threat of global terrorism, a brewing crisis in Pakistan, unresolved nuclear standoffs with Iran and North Korea, Russia's new aggressiveness toward its neighbors, and the lingering aftereffects of a global financial meltdown. All will demand urgent attention and timely action. The president-elect will be lucky if he has a moment to savor his victory, let alone to pause and reflect on the longer-term trends that are reshaping the world.

Yet such reflection is badly needed. As important as they undoubtedly are, all of the issues listed above are being played out against the backdrop of something even bigger: a massive, rapid shift in the distribution of global wealth and power toward Asia. This process has been gathering momentum for more than thirty years; if current projections are borne out, in the next thirty Asia's rise will fundamentally alter the structure of the international system and the character of great power politics.

It is difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of what is taking place. The changes now underway are comparable in scale, and potentially in historical significance, to the "rise of the West"--the emergence of Europe as the world's leader in wealth and military power--or the rise of the United States to global preponderance that began in the nineteenth century.

Such a profound shift will eventually require the reexamination, and ultimately the reorientation, of many aspects of America's foreign, economic, and defense policies. These changes may be forced by events. Or they could be shaped by a clear and coherent national strategy, a plan of action that looks beyond today's turmoil, sets broad goals, and identifies the tools and policies that will be necessary to achieve them.

The purpose of this report is to put forward an American strategy for Asia. While it is motivated by an awareness of long-term trends, the emphasis of this report will be on the concrete and practical. We intend not only to identify goals, but also to specify the steps that a new president should take over the next four to eight years to bring them closer to realization.

Our report differs from others on related subjects in two important ways. First, it is focused rather than comprehensive. Instead of touching lightly on every conceivable subject relevant to Asia, we have chosen to concentrate on those that we believe to be of greatest strategic importance. Second, our report is more candid than is typically the case about the challenges that are likely to emanate from Asia and, in particular, about those that may result from the rise of China. Our intention is not to be provocative, but rather to be clear. Ritualized "happy talk" about where China is headed will do little, if anything, to alter Beijing's course. But unwarranted optimism on the part of our leaders may make it harder to maintain public support for the policies necessary to keep the peace and secure American interests, and it could set the stage for future disappointment and overreaction if exaggerated expectations of Sino-American friendship are not met. We have been reminded in recent years how important it is not to overstate the magnitude and imminence of threats to our nation's security, but it is at least as important to be clear and honest in acknowledging their existence.

An American Strategy for Asia

Internal documents indicate the January 7 morning session was scheduled to cover current defense actions and planning, with remarks by Gates and Mullen. That was to be followed by an afternoon agenda built around the theme of "A Balanced Defense Strategy," the title of Gates' recent Foreign Affairs article.

Gates was slated to kick off the afternoon meeting by discussing the fiscal year 2010 budget, as well as potential supplemental funding for FY-09 and FY-10. Gates has told Congress he needs roughly $70 billion more in FY-09 to finance the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

Next up was a discussion of the upcoming 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review led by the Pentagon's policy shop. That was supposed to be followed by a session on current force planning and future requirements, including the status of the defense planning scenarios and future scenario requirements.

In another Inside the Navy article Zachary Peterson reports that The Marine Corps' Strategic Vision Group is busy briefing US military combatant commands around the world, think tanks and congressional committees on the service's vision for the future, which includes returning to Navy ships and a focus on hybrid warfare, the colonel who heads the strategy group tells Inside the Navy.

Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway has called for Marines to return to their expeditionary roots, which means shipborne operations in close-to-shore areas around the globe. The briefs, presented by Col. Steven Zotti and his team, outline how the Marines see the future and their role in protecting U.S. national security interests abroad in the decades to come.

SWJ friend and Marine brother-in-arms Frank Hoffman is quoted as follows:

"These distinctions may no longer be as relevant as they were in the past," according to an information paper on the topic authored by retired Lt. Col. Frank Hoffman, a research fellow at the Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities, a division of the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory in Quantico, VA.

Much more - for those who subscribe to Inside Defense - to include their interpretation of the roles and missions of the Marine Corps Training and Advisory Group (MCTAG), which has small teams deployed to Africa and South America and, according to Inside Defense, how the MCTAG would fold into a larger effort to form Security Cooperation Marine Air-Ground Task Forces aimed at training and civil-military operations on a task-oriented basis.

Update: For more see Warfighting, Peacemaking, and Hybrid Warfare at Sea at Information Dissemination.

Chance Phelps was wearing his Saint Christopher medal when he was killed on Good Friday. Eight days later, I handed the medallion to his mother. I didn't know Chance before he died. Today, I miss him.

Now, he was home to stay and I suddenly felt at once sad, relieved, and useless. It had been my honor to take Chance Phelps to his final post. Now he is on the high ground overlooking his town.

A Soldier's Story: "Taking Chance" - Caitlin A. Johnson, CBS News, 15 April 2007

After they are brought to Dover Air Force Base, all fallen soldiers, Marines, airmen, and sailors are escorted home to their families and loved ones by a uniformed member of the U.S. armed forces. In mid-April 2004, 38-year-old U.S. Marine Lt. Col. Michael R. Strobl, a manpower analyst assigned to the Combat Development Command in Quantico, Va., accompanied the body of a young Marine killed in Iraq to his final resting place in Wyoming. Strobl wrote the following description of his journey to Wyoming in a small, spiral notebook on his way back to Virginia.

"Taking Chance" - A personal narrative by Lieutenant Colonel Michael R. Strobl, CBS News

Chance Phelps was wearing his Saint Christopher medal when he was killed on Good Friday. Eight days later, I handed the medallion to his mother. I didn't know Chance before he died. Today, I miss him.

Over a year ago, I volunteered to escort the remains of Marines killed in Iraq should the need arise. Thankfully, I hadn't been called on to be an escort since Operation Iraqi Freedom began. The first few weeks of April, however, had been tough ones for the Marines. On the Monday after Easter, I was reviewing Department of Defense press releases when I saw that a Private First Class Chance Phelps was killed in action outside of Baghdad. The press release listed his hometown as Clifton, Colorado — which is near where I'm from. I notified our battalion adjutant and told him that, should the duty to escort PFC Phelps fall to our battalion, I would take him.

Lance Corporal Chance Phelps - Wikipedia

Taking Chance - LtCol Michael Strobl, PBS

Taking Chance Home - Blackfive

The Marine Corps is a special fraternity. There are moments when we are reminded of this. Interestingly, those moments don't always happen at awards ceremonies or in dress blues at Birthday Balls. I have found, rather, that they occur at unexpected times and places: next to a loaded moving van at Camp Lejeune's base housing, in a dirty CP tent in northern Saudi Arabia, and in a smoky VFW post in western Wyoming.

Semper Fi.

Michael J. Carden

American Forces Press Service

Peace and stability in Afghanistan are incomplete without improving relations among the country and its neighbors, the top U.S. military commander in the region said here yesterday.

Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, U.S. Central Command commander, told an audience at the Washington Convention Center that the road to success in Afghanistan involves commitment and comprehensive coordination from Pakistan, India and possibly Russia and Iran to combat the spread of terror and extremism in central Asia.

"It's not possible to solve the challenges internal to Afghanistan without addressing the challenges, especially in terms of security, with Afghanistan's neighbors," Petraeus said in an address to the U.S. Institute of Peace. "A regional approach is required."

Petraeus spoke as part of a conference highlighting some of the foreign policy challenges facing President-elect Barack Obama's administration, citing complexities of the war in Afghanistan and his perspective on the way forward to bring peace to the region.

"There has been nothing easy about Afghanistan," he said. "Indeed, nearly every aspect has been hard, and that will continue to be the case in 2009 and the years beyond."

The past seven years in Afghanistan have seen some accomplishments, the general said. Establishing a national government, construction of infrastructure, improving education and growing the Afghan National Army all are notable improvements for a country that has been ruled by warlords and ravaged by conflict for more than 30 years.

The past year saw a downward spiral of security, with the reconstitution of the Taliban and al-Qaida and the emergence of other extremist groups, Petraeus said. Extremist safe havens and lack of security across Afghanistan's border with Pakistan aided in 2008 being the war's deadliest year. More than 150 U.S. troops were killed.

"It is imperative that Afghanistan does not become a sanctuary for transnational, violent extremists," Petraeus said. "It's for that reason that the United States took action in Afghanistan over seven years ago, and that basic objective remains valid today."

The winning strategy in Afghanistan, Petraeus said, will look much different than Iraq but will work under the same basic counterinsurgency principles. While violence in Afghanistan last year reached record highs, December was Iraq's quietest month since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

"We and our Afghan and coalition partners have a tough fight in Afghanistan, and the natural tendency will be to look to the ways progress was achieved in Iraq for possible answers," he said. But it's important, he noted, to understand that "Afghanistan is not Iraq."

The principles of counterinsurgency operations, such as the importance of security and serving the population and the necessity of living among the people, remain active in Afghanistan, he said. These principles, nonetheless, have to be adapted to the unique cultural and political geographic and terrain of Afghanistan.

"In this regard, it's important to realize a key point in counterinsurgency operations: that every case is unique and requires a carefully designed approach that is appropriate to the specific situation," he said.

The two wars and countries differ in almost every aspect. Iraq has experience under a strong central government. Afghanistan hasn't in recent years. Afghanistan lacks in natural resources, infrastructure and provisional services, such as electricity, clean drinking water and education, in most areas, he said.

"While Iraq this past year generated nearly $60 billion in money-export revenue alone, Afghanistan's total revenue was well under $1 billion," he said. "In Afghanistan, it is important to remember that we're helping them construct infrastructure, not reconstruct."

Petraeus said the many challenges will require not just a comprehensive commitment, but a dedication that will achieve a community of efforts between Afghan and coalition and regional elements, together with international and nongovernment organizations, he said.

"We have to demonstrate commitment to sustain comprehensive, coordinated approaches and build and execute a regional strategy that includes Pakistan, India, the central Asian states and even the army in Russia along with, someday, perhaps at some point, Iran," the general said.

... We have observed before that it is the responsibility of the people and government of Iraq to progress on reconciliation, and that the Marines can help only marginally in this endeavor and certainly don't belong in the middle of internecine struggles at this point in the counterinsurgency and reconstruction effort.

... Rather than being in the middle of internecine struggles, the Marines have led by example. This is counterinsurgency at its very best, and represents the closing of an era in Anbar. It's the final phase of the campaign, and while troops will remain in Iraq for some time to help ensure border sovereignty, proper training of Iraqi Security Forces and robust actions against remaining hard core al Qaeda in Iraq fighters, General Kelly has every reason to be proud of his Marines and his own effort.

Today is the first installment of "This Week at War," a new weekly feature at Foreign Policy, reviewing what's hot in small wars, and at Small Wars Journal...

Yep.

The U.S. Army Center of Military History is soliciting papers for the 27 - 30 July 2009 biennial Conference of Army Historians, to be held in the Washington, D.C., area. This biennial conference has traditionally featured presentations on joint and combined military history as well as papers presented by civilian historians from government and academia. As such, we are very pleased to invite members of the international and academic communities to both attend and present papers on the 2009 theme of "Exiting War: Phase IV Operations."

"Phase IV Operations," a term used by the U.S. military and the U.S. Department of State, is used to describe all post-conflict operations and efforts, including reconstruction. As such, papers may deal with any aspect of the U.S. Army's role in post-conflict operations, including but not limited to: peace-keeping, nation-building, reconstruction, counter-insurgency, occupation, and withdrawal. Special attention will be given to topics that focus on the current Global War on Terror.

Presenters should be prepared to speak for twenty minutes. Should the Center of Military History decide to publish the conference papers, those speaking will have an opportunity to submit a formal paper for consideration.

Further information on the conference location will be forthcoming on the Center of Military History Website.

Prospective participants should send a detailed topic proposal and formal CV no later than 16 January 2009 to Conference of Army Historians, U.S. Army Center of Military History, ATTN: DAMH-FPF, 103 Third Avenue, Fort McNair, DC 20319-5058 or via email at CMHHistoriansConf@conus.army.mil.

In criticizing the use of contractors in Iraq, some observers cite Blackwater as the tip of the contractor iceberg. It's a fair analogy, but it deserves to be taken a step further. As with an iceberg, you may be able to shave some off the tip, but hacking away at the body is pointless...

Word just came to me that Paula Lloyd died. The word came from a close mutual friend who currently is in Afghanistan. Godspeed to Paula. Those who knew Paula said many great things. I was told she was engaged to be married. Now Paula is with God.

Paula Lloyd, a Human Terrain Team member in Afghanistan, was attacked last November in the southern village of Maywand by a man who doused Lloyd in a flammable liquid and set her on fire.

We join Michael in offering our condolences to Paula's family, friends and co-workers.

Update: More from Noah at Danger Room.

If you feel compelled to comment here or at the Council on either post keep it professional and in context of the issues presented by Ricks -- personal attacks won't cut it. Thanks much.

Ex at Abu Muqawama is also tracking...