Small Wars Journal

22 December SWJ Roundup

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 7:07am
Afghanistan

Petraeus Promises Will Rebuild Afghan Village Destruction - Stars and Stripes

Afghan Government Disbands Dozens of Private Security Firms - VOA

Afghan Air Force Gets its Wings, NATO Commander Says - AFPS

Afghan Official Blasts NATO for Civilian Deaths - Associated Press

Covering Marines at War, Through Facebook - New York Times

The Costs of War - Washington Post opinion

Pakistan

U.S., NATO Not Planning Ground Ops in Pakistan, Officials Say - AFPS

U.S. Denies Reports of Planned Pakistan Raids - Voice of America

NATO Denies U.S. Plans Ground Raids into Pakistan - Los Angeles Times

Pakistan's Flawed Ideology - Washington Times opinion

Korean Peninsula

U.S.: North Korea Must Change Behavior Before Talks Can Resume - VOA

South Korea Remains on High Alert - Voice of America

South Korea Begins New Round of Military Drills - New York Times

South Korea Begins Massive New Military Drills - Los Angeles Times

South Korea Braces for Surprise Attack - Los Angeles Times

S. Korea to Stage Firing Drills Near Land Border - Associated Press

S. Korea Begins Routine Naval Drills Amid Tension - Associated Press

South Korea Army to Hold Huge Drill, North Silent - Reuters

Iraq

Iraqi Parliament Approves New Maliki Government- Voice of America

Iraqi Parliament Approves New Unity Government - Washington Post

After Months, Iraqi Lawmakers Approve a Government - New York Times

Iraqi Parliament Approves New Maliki Government - Los Angeles Times

Iraqi Parliament OKs New Government - Washington Times

Iraq Approves New Government With Maliki as PM - Reuters

New Iraqi Government Sworn In, at Last - Associated Press

Iraq's Maliki: Strongman or Merely Strong? - Washington Post

Escalating Violence, Hostility Emptying Iraq of Christians - Associated Press

Al-Qaida in Iraq Threatens Attacks on Christians - Associated Press

Iran

U.S. Tightens Sanctions On Iran - Voice of America

U.S. Adds to Iran Sanctions Shortly After Nuclear Talks - New York Times

Iranian Filmmaker Panahi Receives Prison Sentence - Washington Post

Iranian Filmmaker Sentenced to Six Years in Prison - Los Angeles Times

Iran: Following Price Hike, Truckers Stay Off Roads - Washington Post

Energy Policy in Iran Leaves Many Gasping - New York Times

6.5 Earthquake Kills at Least 11 in Iran - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Offers Condolences, Help After Iranian Quake - Reuters

WikiLeaks

CIA Launches Task Force to Assess Impact of Cable Leaks - Washington Post

Sex and WikiLeaks - Los Angeles Times editorial

U.S. Department of Defense

Is Combat Experience Making Ranger School Unnecessary? - Stars and Stripes

Potential Recruits: Nearly 1 in 4 Fails Military Exam - Associated Press

Colleges Rethink ROTC After 'Don't Ask' Repeal - New York Times

Bring ROTC Back to Elite Campuses - Washington Post opinion

A New Meaning for 'Brothers in Arms' - Washington Times opinion

United States

U.S. Senate Moves Toward Final Vote on Arms Treaty - Voice of America

Arms Treaty With Russia Headed for Ratification - New York Times

Nuclear Arms Pact with Russia Clears Senate Hurdle - Washington Post

GOP Senators Help Arms Pact Clear Hurdle - Washington Times

Senate Poised to Pass Nuclear Treaty - Los Angeles Times

Political Divide Undermines Obama's Nuclear Goals - New York Times

Obama Administration Readies Indefinite Detention Order - Washington Post

Detainee Review Proposal Is Prepared for President - New York Times

10 Books to Help You Hone Your Leadership Skills - Washington Post

Right Decision on Targeted Killings - Washington Post editorial

United Kingdom

U.K. Terror Plot Aimed at British Landmarks, Shopping - Associated Press

Scotland 'Pressured over Libyan Bomber Megrahi' - BBC News

Africa

U.N. Chief Warns Ivory Coast Risks Return to Civil War - Voice of America

U.N. Chief Warns of Ivory Coast War - BBC News

U.N. Chief Warns That Ivory Coast Risks Civil War - Associated Press

"Blockade" Of U.N. In Ivory Coast Gets Critical - Reuters

U.S. to Increase Pressure Until Gbagbo Yields Ivory Coast Presidency - VOA

Ivory Coast's Gbagbo Says World Can Review Poll - Reuters

Sudan's South Faces Economic Challenges Ahead - Voice of America

U.N.: 2.8m at Risk if Violence Breaks Out in Sudan - Associated Press

Arab Countries Hold Talks Ahead of Sudan Vote - Associated Press

Kenya and Uganda Bolster Security - Washington Post

African Farmers Displaced as Investors Move In - New York Times

Americas

International Court Rules Against Mexico's Army - Los Angeles Times

Family's Triple Tragedy Highlights Mexico Impunity - Associated Press

Mass Kidnap Of Migrants Reported In Mexico - Reuters

Mexico Migrant Abduction Disputed - BBC News

Freed Mexican Pol: Kidnappers Had Political Motive - Associated Press

Death Toll From Mexico Crude-Oil Blast Rises to 29 - Associated Press

Venezuela to Make Lawmakers Vote With Their Parties - Reuters

Death Breathes Political Life into Argentina's President - Los Angeles Times

Ex-Argentine Dictator Says Terrorists Run Country - Associated Press

Corruption "Rampant" In Dominican Republic - Reuters

Asia Pacific

China: East Meets West, but It Takes Some Practice - New York Times

6 Are Held in Attack on Chinese Investigative Journalist - New York Times

China Replaces Top Foreign Ministry Official - Associated Press

Thailand Ends State of Emergency in Bangkok - Associated Press

Filipino Gunmen Free 2 Malaysians After 10 Months - Associated Press

Europe

Russia: Kremlin Poker-Faced as U.S. Senate Mulls Arms Pact - Associated Press

Russia: Putin Makes Symbolic Visit in Ethnic Strife - New York Times

Young Russians Turn to Islam - Washington Post

Clashes in Belarus Show Resilience of Both Sides - New York Times

Italy: Defective Bomb Found on Rome Subway - New York Times

Czech Government Survives No-Confidence Vote - Reuters

U.K. Offers Troops, E.U. Seeks Answers for Snow Chaos - Associated Press

Middle East

Israel Plans Public Appeal to Ask U.S. to Free a Spy - New York Times

Palestinians, Israelis Trade Rockets, Airstrikes - Associated Press

The U.S. Needs to Get Tough with Israel - Los Angeles Times opinion

Saudi King Exits New York Hospital, Report Says - Reuters

South Asia

Russia Last of Major Powers to Seal Valuable Deals with India - Washington Post

Warm Russian, Indian Ties Outlive Cold War - Reuters

India Anti-sleaze Protests Held - BBC News

Starbuck Threefer

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 4:53am
Crispin Burke, Wings over Iraq, has a three part series posted at the Swiss blog Offiziere.ch entitled "America's All-Volunteer Force: The Right Choice, Despite Stress of Two Wars". Part One can be found here, Part Two here, and Part Three here.

BLUF: "In recent weeks, many American writers, such as former Washington Post correspondent Tom Ricks, have advocated some form of national service program, whether military, or a combination of military and civil service. While a national service program is beyond the scope of this document, it's safe to say that America's All-Volunteer Force serves the US best, based on America's social, political, strategic, and military policy. Though the All-Volunteer Force is not without significant flaws, it's the best choice for the United States. Nevertheless, we would be wise to take notes of the limitations of such a force. It's a smaller military, and can be prone to overstretch. It also requires a significant investiture of money and time to grow a well-trained force. Finally, and most importantly, an All-Volunteer Force is often "out of sight and out of mind" for many Americans. Taking steps to rectify this particular issue won't be easy. But it's safe to say that a draft isn't the proper way about it. For now, America's All-Volunteer Force, despite drawbacks and the stress of two wars, is the right force for America's defense."

Bigotry as Opportunism

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 4:23pm
In the holiday spirit, Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen wrote that the Commandant of the Marine Corps "is one step short of being a bigot." Cohen, who strongly supports homosexuals in the military, insisted that the Commandant be fired because he held a different view. According to the dictionary, 'a bigot is one who is strongly attached to his view of politics and intolerant of those who differ.' It is Cohen, not the Commandant of Marines, who defines the word bigot.

Cohen is also cunning in arguing that gays should join a Marine Corps that, in his judgment, should dismiss its own leaders. His column is a clarion call to incite the very divisiveness the legislation was intended to expunge. That is a sure way to cause chaos and anger -- and increase readership by slyly encouraging controversy of the Jerry Springer style. Cohen's screed has already rocketed around the military-related web sites.

The best way to treat a bigot is to ignore his opportunistic self-promotion. Let the Washington Post correspondents who risk their lives alongside Marines deal with Cohen and his warped journalistic ethics.

(Richard Cohen, Marine Corps commandant has to go, Washington Post, Dec 21, 2010)

JFQ 60 Posted Today

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 1:57pm
The latest issue of Joint Force Quarterly has just been posted to the National Defense University Press web page.

Here's the executive summary with individual article links:

In this issue's Forum section, Joint Force Quarterly examines several issues of contemporary prominence and theoretical concern for counterinsurgency (COIN) operations. Some of the author issues are conceptual and some are operational. Each one impacts the ongoing national security debate regarding America's ability to effectively conduct, much less succeed in, our present wars and in the kinds of conflict we anticipate in the future.

We begin this issue's Forum with an article from Stephen Melton of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. Professor Melton takes exception to the broader notions of American military jointness and interagency coordination that have increasingly underwritten overseas U.S. military operations since World War II. He questions the wisdom of strategic-level planning for military operations now conducted within theater-level commands such as U.S. Central Command, calling for a return to pre--Goldwater-Nichols Act days when Service staffs and Joint Staff were the preeminent fashioners of campaign strategy and the operational framework for field commander execution. Melton challenges, directly and indirectly, the recent chorus of policymaker voices championing nonmilitary, interagency leadership in expeditionary operations such as reconstruction, development, governance, and law enforcement. A skeptic of other government agencies in wartime activities, Melton lionizes U.S. military leadership in the successful reconstruction and development efforts in post--World War II Germany and Japan. Bucking the present Washington rhetoric in favor of both more military jointness and a broader interagency mandate and better capacity to lead in complex contingency operations, Melton argues that we would do better to take a step back in organization, doctrine, and policy if we wish to organize, plan, and operate in a manner best able to secure American "victory" in future conflicts.

Next, Sebastian Gorka and David Kilcullen weigh in on the debate between American COIN proponents and their most ardent critics. They find the parameters of ongoing debate to be narrow and confining, noting that the contemporary American practice of COIN in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq is but one of many historic approaches taken by established states to combat asymmetric threats and irregular military formations. Gorka and Kilcullen assert that the conspicuous American post-9/11 formulation of COIN traces to a construct framed by RAND in 1958, developed by American thinkers and practitioners during the turbulent period of the Vietnam War in the 1960s, and limited to serious study of no more than two dozen anticolonial insurgencies out of nearly 200 irregular warfare events documented in the 20th century, most of which were fought for reasons other than anticolonialism. In this context, they assess contemporary COIN to be but a subset of the far older and much richer vein of strategic thought and practice called counterinsurgency: the art of effectively countering irregular foes. Their appeal? Beware the contemporary COIN formulation as the only, much less the correct, template for modern counterinsurgency. Counterinsurgent states must clearly establish the context of the conflict and define the characteristics of the irregular opponent. Only then can they choose the doctrine and apply the tactics most likely to prevail.

Then, prominent George Washington University sociologist Amitai Etzioni offers some thoughts on the complexities associated with contemporary counterinsurgency operations. Professor Etzioni reminds us that external party participants in COIN operations— such as the United States in Iraq and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization International Security Assistance Force (NATO--ISAF) in Afghanistan—face a host of cultural, religious, ethnic, and subnational challenges. These make objective realization of counterinsurgency goals challenging. The challenges exist within the country of conflict and from the interest group alignments found in the polity of the external participants. Assessing the "perspectives gulf" between these diverse sets of subnational actors to be underappreciated, Etzioni chronicles a host of important, yet seemingly innocuous, areas where divergent perspectives can decisively frustrate the most well-intentioned counterinsurgency aims. His Iraq- and Afghanistan-based examples should resonate with American strategists and practitioners, as they include samples of cognitive divergence in concepts including corruption, gender roles and rights, judicial fairness, and the role of religion. Etzioni's caution is one of prudence in aim, for third-party over-ambition in objectives can only doom to failure the inherently complex undertaking of counterinsurgency.

This Forum also presents two articles addressing a major challenge faced by the United States in its protracted counterinsurgency ventures in Iraq and Afghanistan: civilian contractors and approaches toward local contracting in conflict zones.

T.X. Hammes of the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University presents conclusions from his recent INSS Strategic Forum on the topic of contractors in conflict zones. He chronicles the multifaceted implications—good and bad—presented by the phalanx of contractors working astride U.S. military forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, and states across the Near East and South Asia. Dr. Hammes confirms the indispensable role performed by contractors in support of American military operations since 9/11, including the manner in which their expansive presence has alleviated pressures for a wider American military mobilization to prosecute ongoing wars. But he also catalogues the plethora of issues arising from the roles performed and the relationships established by contractors in America's ongoing COIN efforts. These issues run the gamut from those of contractor accountability, to host-country perceptions of contractor behavior in relation to U.S. strategy and its legitimacy, to the potential for understatement of human and financial costs in American military planning for future contingency operations. Hammes's recommendations for new policies and procedures that maximize the value and minimize the risks from contractors in conflict zones might not sit well with those wedded to the present system. Yet they should resonate with the millions who have served as, or have directly worked with, U.S. contractors in the expansive areas supporting Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Forum section concludes with U.S. Army Captain Jonathan Pan offering a personal review and a policy critique of U.S. and NATO local contracting efforts in Afghanistan. Informed by his experiences as an economic development officer for the Army's 5th Brigade/2d Infantry Division Stryker Brigade Combat Team deployed near Kandahar in 2009--2010, Captain Pan paints a vivid picture of the adverse tactical effects from standard NATO contracting practices in that city and its surrounding area. Pan highlights the challenges from standard Western contracting practices and procedures applied to the unique, Spartan environment of southern Afghanistan. His vignettes stand as testimony to frustrations experienced by a legion of nongovernmental and governmental organizations attempting to do contract business in incredibly poor countries with few skilled workers, still fewer qualified companies, and a culture of local strongmen profiteering from outside financial investment. Captain Pan points out the desperate need for a coherent NATO contracting policy in Afghanistan, one clearly absent during his time there. For Pan, any viable policy should first recognize the inherent, and uncomfortable, tradeoff faced by local contracting agents between accomplishing time-sensitive contracted outcomes (brick and mortar as well as those to do with human services) with the often negative second- and third-level governance and economic effects from the contracting process itself. Captain Pan's recommendations seem to be in line with the thinking of NATO--ISAF senior leaders, for they empowered a special contracting task force during the spring of 2010 to resolve growing concerns that Western contracting was exacerbating local Afghan corruption. It remains to be seen if that task force can get to the heart of the challenges chronicled—and fulfill the recommendations made—by Captain Pan.

In the Features section, JFQ offers four articles that speculate directly and indirectly about the possibilities and "what-ifs" that America and its allies might face in the event of some future military confrontation with China. U.S. national strategy remains focused on dialogue, engagement, and the prevention of such a clash. The May 2010 U.S. National Security Strategy calls for deeper cooperation with China, India, and Russia, naming them as three of the important emerging centers of influence in the 21st century. In its 2010 report to Congress on China, the Department of Defense highlighted that it continues to prioritize exchanges with the Chinese military to help build cooperative capacity, foster understanding, and develop common views on the international security environment and related security challenges. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met with his Chinese counterpart, Liang Guanglie, on the side at an October 2010 Southeast Asian Defense Conference in Hanoi, Vietnam. There, the Secretary accepted Liang's invitation to visit China in 2011, thawing a chill in military-to military relations that had dominated 2010 after the January announcement of additional U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan. At the same time, American defense policymakers and China experts remain broad-minded in thinking about and planning for unwelcomed outcomes. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review observes that "China has shared only limited information about the pace, scope, and ultimate aims of its military modernization programs, raising a number of legitimate questions regarding its long term intentions." Our civilian and military Features authors write concerning these questions. JFQ readers might best consider their thoughts as insights into what the future may hold if American aims for a collaborative future with China go unrealized, not from a conclusion that such an outcome is desired or inevitable. JFQ

SWJ Note: In the Joint Doctrine section be sure to read Evidentiary Validation of FM 3-24: Counterinsurgency Worldwide, 1978-2008 by Christopher Paul and Colin P. Clarke. BLUF: "So the principles in FM 3--24 showed strongly in insurgencies worldwide over the past 30 years, not just ambiguously in wars of independence more than 40 years ago, as Colonel Gentile argued. While the details of FM 3--24, like all doctrine, should be subjected to continuing scrutiny and refinement based on operational experience, there appear to be no grounds in the past 30 years of insurgency worldwide for any attack on the core principles of FM 3--24. Similarly, firepower need not be wholly eschewed in COIN, but the record of history suggests that victory over the long term is much more likely to go to those who are judicious in their application of force."

There's much more in the latest issue of Joint Force Quarterly.

21 December SWJ Roundup

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 7:40am
Afghanistan

Life and Death Decisions Weigh on Junior Officers - New York Times

Gauging the Price Tag for Afghanistan's Security - Washington Post

Waste In U.S. Afghan Aid Seen At Billions Of Dollars - Reuters

NATO Fails to Deliver Half of Trainers Promised for Afghanistan - Globe and Mail

AF Gov.: West Hasn't Adequately Armed Afghan Forces - Los Angeles Times

Afghanistan to Convene Parliament, Reacts to U.S. Policy Review - VOA

Afghanistan's Belated, Muted Criticism of War Review - Washington Post

Afghan, Coalition Forces Kill Insurgents, Find Weapons - AFPS

Russia Was Misled Over Fuel for U.S. Use, Report Says - New York Times

Pentagon, State Blasted on Kyrgyz Jet Fuel Deals - Washington Post

U.S. Contractor Jailed in Afghanistan - Washington Post

Pakistan

U.S. Military Seeks to Expand Raids in Pakistan - New York Times

NATO Denies U.S. Military Pushing for Pakistan Raids - Associated Press

ISAF Denies News Report Of Raids Into Pakistan - Reuters

Korean Peninsula

North Korea Will Allow Return of Nuclear Inspectors - Voice of America

North Withholds Fire After South Korean Drills - New York Times

Seoul Arms Test Draws No Flak - Washington Times

North Korea Makes Some Gestures Toward Calm - Washington Post

South Korea Braces for a Response from the North - Los Angeles Times

S. Korean Troops Prepare for Possible N. Korean Attack - Associated Press

South Korea Defends "Strong Response" to North - Reuters

Richardson Says N. Korea Trip Is Opening for Talks - Associated Press

U.S. Cautious about North Korean Commitments to Richardson - VOA

China Urges North Korea to Accept Nuclear Inspectors - Reuters

Iraq

Maliki Postpones Iraq Government Plans - Washington Post

Iraqi Prime Minister Announces Cabinet Choices - Voice of America

Ministers Proposed for Iraqi Cabinet - New York Times

Iraq MPs to Vote on New Cabinet - BBC News

Iraqi Prime Minister Announces New Cabinet - Associated Press

Iraqi Prime Minister Announces New Cabinet - Associated Press

Iran

Iran Hangs 11 Sunnis Convicted of Attacks - Associated Press

WikiLeaks

Assange Concerned over 'Natural Justice' in Sweden - BBC News

U.S. Department of Defense

DARPA Goal for Cybersecurity: Change the Game - AFPS

U.S. Southern Command Opens New Headquarters - AFPS

DOD 'Carefully' Plans 'Don't Ask' Repeal Implementation - AFPS

Gay Service Members Advised to Wait Before Coming Out - Washington Times

United States

Obama Urges GOP to Vote for START - Washington Times

Mullen Calls on Senate to Pass START Treaty - Washington Post

Senate Support Builds for Pact on Arms Control - New York Times

Vote on Nuclear Treaty May be Defining Moment for Obama - Los Angeles Times

Fear vs. Reason in the Arms Control Debate - New York Times opinion

TSA's Embrace of Technology Questioned - Washington Post

U.S. Seeks to Expand Gun Checks - Associated Press

United Kingdom

British Police Arrest 12 Terror Suspects - Voice of America

British Police Round Up 12 in Counterterrorism Raids - New York Times

12 Arrested in British Terrorism Raids - Associated Press

World

Jane's: Economy Squeezes Armies Worldwide - United Press International

Africa

U.N. Security Council Extends Ivory Coast Peacekeeping Mission - VOA

U.N. Security Council Extends Ivory Coast Mission - Associated Press

Ivory Coast Crisis: Gbagbo Ally Warns of U.N. Rebellion - BBC News

Ivorian Supporters say They Will 'Fight to Death' for Gbagbo - Voice of America

Ivory Coast's Leader Tightens Vise on Man Who Defeated Him - New York Times

Humanitarian Organizations in Sudan Prepare for Referendum Aftermath - VOA

Bomb Blast at Nairobi Bus Station Kills Three - BBC News

Zimbabwe: U.N. Chief Offered Mugabe Deal to Step Down - Reuters

Merger of Somali Militants Could Mean More Attacks - Associated Press

Americas

Mexican Politician 'El Jefe' Diego Freed - Washington Post

Kidnapped Mexican Politician Released After Seven Months - Los Angeles Times

Former Mexican Candidate Freed by Kidnappers - Associated Press

Mexico Crime Activist's Relative Also Found Dead - Associated Press

27 Die in Oil Pipeline Explosion in Mexico - Los Angeles Times

Fatal Oil Blast Spotlights Mexico's Fuel Thieves - Reuters

U.S.: Venezuela's Rejection of Envoy Will Have 'Consequences' - VOA

U.S.: Chavez's Rejection of Diplomat to Have Impact - Associated Press

Guatemala Launches Siege to Reclaim Violent North - Associated Press

Study: Nearly Half of Weapons in Brazil Illegal - Associated Press

Cardinal Hopes Cuba Will Release 11 Dissidents - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

Thailand to End State of Emergency in Bangkok - Associated Press

Europe

Belarus Leader Shrugs Off Accusations of Election Fraud, Violence - VOA

Belarusian Leader Says he Won Election - Washington Times

Belarus Police Arrest Opposition Leaders - New York Times

Cables Shed New Light on Ex-K.G.B. Officer's Death - New York Times

Germany Investigating Bribes at Its Embassies - New York Times

Middle East

Israeli Ministers Float Limited West Bank Pullout - Associated Press

Violence Escalates Along Gaza-Israel Border - Associated Press

Israeli Air Strikes Target Gaza After Rocket Fire - Reuters

The Captive Arab Mind - New York Times opinion

South Asia

India Leader Offers to Testify in Scandal Inquiry - New York Times

Russian President Seals Indian Defence Deals - BBC News

India, Russia Reaffirm Strategic Partnership - Associated Press

Russia Supports India U.N. Seat Quest, Seals Deals - Reuters

Lessons Learned from U.S. Government Law Enforcement in International Operations

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 7:39pm
Lessons Learned from U.S. Government Law Enforcement in International Operations by Dilshika Jayamaha, Scott Brady, Ben Fitzgerald, and Jason Fritz. From the summary of this U.S. Army Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute paper:

Law enforcement (LE) aspects have been an increasingly prominent feature within the U.S. Government's (USG's) commitment to international operations. Beyond the deployment of police personnel to interim policing missions, LE agencies may also be involved in international operations to enforce U.S. domestic law; for capacity building; and/or in support of U.S. military forces. This analysis examines lessons from three operations: Panama (1989-99), Colombia (1989-Present), and Kosovo (1998-Present). This analysis was supported by an extensive range of interviews and in-country field research in Colombia and Kosovo. The lessons learned were developed and validated in a series of workshops with subject matter experts. The results show the pervasive and complex role that law enforcement and related issues have played in contemporary international operations. Despite the unique circumstances and history of each operation, there were key findings that are common to all operations considered and have implications for broader USG law enforcement efforts in support of current and future international operations.

Read the entire paper here.

'Small war' in Korea is postponed

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 2:20pm
Today, South Korean marines proceeded with an artillery training exercise on Yeonpyeong Island. Instead of delivering "brutal consequences beyond imagination" if the exercise went ahead, the North Korean government instead concluded that it was "not worth reacting" to the 94-minute drill.

South Korea called the North's bluff and the North folded its hand, at least for now. The South boosted its leverage in several ways. First, it evacuated civilians on the island and in other forward locations. Second, it waited for clear weather and put F-15 fighter-bombers in the air, presumably in preparation for counter-battery strikes against North Korean artillery positions. Finally, about 20 U.S. soldiers participated in the exercise as observers, or more accurately as "trip-wires" for a U.S. retaliatory response against the North. The North's leaders likely concluded that in this case they did not possess escalation dominance. The North has exposed itself as a bluffer and will have to run much greater risks in the future to reestablish its reputation for ferocity.

This weekend's drama was a breakthrough for the South Korean government. Previous sable-rattling by the North typically resulted in multilateral negotiations, which usually concluded with some kind of payoff for the North in exchange for promises of future good behavior. The South Korean government now has an opportunity to break from that pattern.

China is another loser from this episode. It vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have condemned the North for its artillery attack last month on Yeonpyeong Island. China doubled-down on its support for the North, hoping that the South would blink and refrain from its artillery exercise. China's gambit failed. China's redoubled (and fruitless) backing for North Korea has further damaged its reputation and will likely lead to greater alarm in the region about China's judgment and intentions.

We should assume that North Korea's goal was to reconvene the six-party talks for the purpose of working out a deal that would resume outside aid to the North. South Korea, the United States, and Japan have resisted this maneuver and have now called North Korea's bluff. The North has quickly adapted by taking up a new tack; they have communicated through the visiting Bill Richardson that they are —to reopen the Yongbyon nuclear complex to IAEA inspectors. The North also seems —to discuss a sale of 12,000 plutonium fuel rods to the South, which would remove from the North this potential source of bomb-grade material.

No matter how much the North needs cash, it strains credulity to believe the North would sell off its greatest trump card, its presumed status as a nuclear weapons state. The North's interest is to get a negotiation started by whatever way it can and then bargain for a transitory deal. Its attempt at coercion failed so it is now trying a different approach but with the same ultimate goal, a resumption of aid to the North. With the North's bluff having failed, the South is under no pressure to make a response.

After the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, the South Korean government took a risk when it pursued a brinkmanship strategy. That strategy has succeeded; it now has more leverage than it has had in a long time. The North's actions display internal anxiety. The South by contrast can take its time to evaluate its next moves. For the South, military preparation and strong nerves are paying off.

20 December SWJ Roundup

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 7:19am
Afghanistan

Biden Says U.S. to be Out of Afghanistan by 2014 - Associated Press

Militants Kill Afghan Soldiers in 2 Attacks - New York Times

Taliban Show Reach, Kill 13 Afghan Troops - Associated Press

Karzai to Open Afghan Parliament By January 20 - Reuters

Germany's Merkel Pays Visit to Afghanistan Troops - New York Times

Afghan War Just a Slice of U.S. News Media Coverage - New York Times

Pakistan

Biden Says Al Qaeda in Pakistan Is Weaker - New York Times

Chinese Premier Praises Pakistan's Fight Against Terrorism - New York Times

Militants Destroy 2 NATO Tankers in NW Pakistan - Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

U.N. Security Council in Emergency Talks on Korean Tensions - VOA

At Security Council, a Stalemate Over Blame - New York Times

U.N. Fails to Take Action on Korea Tensions - Associated Press

Seoul Undertakes Effort to Measure North Korea's Longevity - Washington Post

South Korea Concludes Artillery Drill, Scrambles Jet Fighters - VOA

Firing Drill Increases Tensions in Korea - Wall Street Journal

South Korea Conducts Live-Fire Drills Near the North - New York Times

S. Korea Holds Live-fire Drills Despite Threats - Los Angeles Times

War Games Increase Korea Tension - BBC News

S. Korea Conducts Firing Drills from Border Island - Associated Press

North Korean Guns Silent as South Conducts Drill - Reuters

Iraq

Allawi Comments Boost Iraq Government Prospects - Washington Post

Iraq to Reveal New Government, End 9-month Political Gap - Reuters

Iraq Govt Formation Hits New Snag - Associated Press

Infighting Delays New Iraq Government - Reuters

Cleric's Anti-U.S. Forces Poised for Gains in Iraq - New York Times

Iran

Iranian Police on Alert as Government Cutbacks Begin - Voice of America

Gas Prices Soar in Iran as Subsidy Is Reduced - New York Times

Iranians Brace for Fuel Subsidy Cuts - Los Angeles Times

Police Patrol Cities as Iran Hikes Prices of Gas, Other Staples - Washington Post

Ex-Iranian FM Criticizes President for Sacking Him - Associated Press

WikiLeaks

New Details Reveal More About Problems Assange Faces - Wall Street Journal

Careful When Shooting the Messenger - New York Times

U.S. Department of Defense

Contractors Behaving Badly Mean Headaches for U.S. - Associated Press

'Double-dipping' Probe Targets Calif. Air National Guard Pilots - Sacramento Bee

DADT Repeal: A How-To Guide for a New Military - New York Times

Focus Shifts to Implementing Plan to Let Gays Serve Openly - Stars and Stripes

Marines Backing 'Don't Ask' Repeal, With Reservations - New York Times

At Long Last, Military Honor - New York Times editorial

A Win for Fairness and Decency - Washington Post editorial

Time Magazine's Person of the Year

Person of the Year: SSGT Salvatore Giunta - New York Times

United States

Democrats Scramble to Save Votes to Ratify Nuclear Pact - New York Times

Monitoring America: Domestic Intelligence - Washington Post

Remembering America's Most Innovative Diplomat - Bloomberg News

United Kingdom

12 Men Arrested in U.K. Anti-terror Raids - BBC News

12 Arrested in British Terrorism Raids - Associated Press

U.K. Police Arrest 12 Men In Counterterrorism Raids - Reuters

Canada

Canada and U.S. Near Border Security Pact - Wall Street Journal

Africa

Islamic Sudan Envisioned if South Secedes - New York Times

U.N. Refuses to Pull Troops from Ivory Coast - Washington Post

U.N. Says More than 50 Killed in Ivory Coast - Voice of America

U.N.: Reports of Abductions in Ivory Coast Grow - Associated Press

Media Fight Rages Between Ivory Coast Rivals - Associated Press

Militia in Somalia Abandons Key Positions to Radical Group - New York Times

2 Main Somali Islamist Insurgent Groups to Merge - Associated Press

Americas

Venezuela: Chavez Defends Plan for Internet Regulations - Associated Press

Venezuela and U.S. in Envoy Dispute - BBC News

Venezuela: A Chance for Democracy - Washington Post opinion

Guatemalan Military Seizes Drug-Plagued Province - Associated Press

Haitians in U.S. Brace for Deportations to Resume - New York Times

Asia Pacific

Chinese Envoy Arrives in Taiwan for Talks - Associated Press

Europe

Lukashenko Wins Belarus Presidential Election, Mass Protests Follow - VOA

Belarus Opposition Attacks Government Building After Election - VOA

'Hundreds of Protesters Arrested' in Belarus - BBC News

After Belarus Vote, Riot Police Attack Protesters - New York Times

Middle East

PLO Signals Flexibility on Security - Washington Times

Palestinian Leader Has 60 Israelis to Lunch - New York Times

Why Egypt's Power Has Dimmed - Reuters

Egypt Arrests 4 Citizens Over Spying for Israel - Associated Press

WikiLeaks: Yemen Nuclear Material Was Unsecured - Associated Press

South Asia

Indian Party's Leader Stands by Singh - New York Times

India PM Offers to Answer Corruption Allegations - Reuters

19 December SWJ Roundup

Sun, 12/19/2010 - 8:11am
Afghanistan

U.S. Afghan Troop Surge Buys Time But Not Victory - Associated Press

New Violence Grips Afghanistan as German Leader Visits - Voice of America

Germany's Merkel Makes Unannounced Visit to Afghanistan - BBC News

NATO Kills 20 Insurgents in Eastern Afghanistan - Associated Press

Twin Attacks Target Afghan Security Forces - Los Angeles Times

Militants Kill Afghan Soldiers - New York Times

Bomb Kills 2 Afghans in Attack in Kandahar - New York Times

Foreign Troop 2010 Toll Hits 700 In Afghanistan - Reuters

In Arghandab, Standing Guard While Government Takes Root - Stars and Stripes

Reassuring Hands: Crew's Urgent Flight Into the Afghan Desert - New York Times

The War's Real Report Card - Los Angeles Times opinion

Pakistan

Pakistan Denies Outing U.S. Spy - Voice of America

Pakistan Says It Didn't Tell Spy's Identity - New York Times

Pakistan Denies ISI Revealed Name of CIA Station Chief - Washington Post

Naming of CIA Agent to Cause U.S.-Pakistan Friction - Los Angeles Times

Pakistan Spy Agency Denies it Exposed CIA Chief - Associated Press

China Counters U.S. Criticism Of Pakistan as PM Ends Visit - Reuters

Korean Peninsula

U.N. Security Council Emergency Meeting to Discuss Korea - Wall Street Journal

U.N. Security Council to Meet Over Korea Crisis - Reuters

China Steps Up Pressure on Koreas - Voice of America

U.S. Envoy Bill Richardson Warns of Korea Tinderbox - BBC News

Seoul Unfazed by North Korea's Threats over Military Drills - Los Angeles Times

Bad Weather Delays Drill by South Korea - Associated Press

South Korea Plans to Proceed with Military Drill - New York Times

South Korea Not Scrapping Drill Despite Threat - Reuters

Iraq

Politics in Iraq Casts Doubt on a U.S. Presence After 2011 - New York Times

Iraqi PM to Name New Cabinet Monday - Voice of America

Parliament Vote Puts Iraq Closer to a New Government - New York Times

Iraq's Main Sunni Bloc to Participate in Government - Washington Post

U.N. Reports Christians Flee Central Iraq in Thousands - BBC News

Grim Xmas for Iraqi Christians as Many Flee North - Associated Press

Iraq Entices Investors to Bid for Power Profits - Associated Press

Iran

Mullen: U.S. `Very Ready' to Counter Iran on Nukes - Associated Press

New Iranian FM: Improving Ties to Islamic Countries a Priority - VOA

Iran Fetes New Foreign Minister Ahead of Nuclear Talks - Los Angeles Times

Sacked Iran FM Unaware He Was to Be Fired - Associated Press

Iranian President Announces Start to Subsidy Cuts - Associated Press

Police in Iran Streets as Subsidies Are Cut - Associated Press

Confirmed: Suspicion of Iran is Universal - Washington Times opinion

WikiLeaks

Swedish Police Report Details Case Against Assange - New York Times

Bank of America Stops Handling Wikileaks Payments - BBC News

Now Comes Don't Read, Don't Tell - Stars and Stripes opinion

U.S. Department of Defense

U.S. Senate Moves to Repeal Ban on Gays in Military - Voice of America

Senate Votes to Repeal 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' - Stars and Stripes

Senate Repeals 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' - New York Times

Senate Repeals 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' Policy - Los Angeles Times

Senate Repeals 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' - Washington Times

Senate Votes to Repeal 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' - Washington Post

DADT Repeal: Political, Cultural Fights Remain - Wall Street Journal

President Hails Vote to Repeal 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' Law - AFPS

'Don't Ask' Remains in Effect as Gates, Mullen Tackle Plan - AFPS

Navy and Marine Corps Green Revolution - New York Times opinion

Time Magazine's Person of the Year

Person of the Year: SSGT Salvatore Giunta - New York Times

United States

Obama Urges Swift Approval of START Treaty - Voice of America

Arms Control Treaty Proceeds as Language Remains Intact - New York Times

Obama Promises START Treaty Won't Limit Missile Defense - Washington Post

Obama Vows to Press on as Senate Blocks DREAM Act - Voice of America

Defeat of Immigration Measure Reveals Failed Strategy - Washington Post

Dream Act Vote Rebuffs Immigration Policy - New York Times

Dream Act's Failure in Senate Derails Immigration Agenda - Los Angeles Times

Senate Rejects Legalization for Illegal Immigrant Students - Washington Times

Richard Holbrooke, Thirsting for a Role in History - New York Times

So Now it's Terrorism? - Washington Times editorial

Africa

Ivory Coast President Gbagbo Orders U.N. Peacekeepers Out - VOA

Ivory Coast Strongman Orders Out U.N. Force - New York Times

Gbagbo Orders Peacekeepers to Leave Ivory Coast - BBC News

Ivory Coast's Gbagbo Tells U.N. To Leave, Ban Refuses - Reuters

Sudan President Accused of Hiding Billions of Dollars - Voice of America

ICC: Sudan's President Bashir 'Siphoned Off Millions' - BBC News

Prosecutor: Sudan's Al-Bashir Stole Billions - Associated Press

Fighting In Sudan's Darfur Forces 12,000 to Flee - Reuters

Zimbabwe's Mugabe: Party Ready to Regain Dominance - Associated Press

Mugabe Threat to Nationalise U.S. and U.K. Zimbabwe Firms - BBC News

Zimbabwe Health Care, Paid With Peanuts - New York Times

Western Sahara Foes Still At Odds But to Speed Up Talks - Reuters

Americas

Mexican Drug Cartels Find Youths to be Easy Prey - Los Angeles Times

Mexico: Anti-Crime Crusader's Family's Business Torched - Associated Press

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is Granted Decree Powers - Washington Post

U.S., Venezuela at Odds on Ambassador, Chavez Powers - Associated Press

Bolivia Charges 39 over Alleged Plot to Kill Morales - BBC News

Raul Castro Says Cubans Must Back Economic Reforms - BBC News

Haiti Election Results Could Be Delayed for Weeks - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

Is China (Finally) Building an Aircraft Carrier? - Wired

China Pressed to Account for Uighurs' Fate - New York Times

Europe

Obama Reaffirms Deployment of Long-range Missile Defenses - Washington Times

Russian Military to Participate in NATO Drills Next Year - Xinhua

Moscow Police Arrest 500 to Deter Protests - Associated Press

Lukashenko Dominates Belarus Election Day - Voice of America

Strongman Lukashenko Aims to Win Another Belarus Poll - BBC News

Belarus' Authoritarian Leader Seeks New Term - Associated Press

Belarus: Veneer of Pluralism Emerges with the West in Mind - New York Times

Kosovo PM Named in Human Organ Scandal - Voice of America

Judges Reinstate Travel Ban for Kosovo Ex-Leader - New York Times

Middle East

U.S., Bahrain Discuss Regional Security Issues - Voice of America

U.S. Commander Mike Mullen Reassures Gulf States on Iran - BBC News

Israeli Airstrike Kills Militants in Gaza - New York Times

Israeli Air Strike Kills Five in Gaza Strip - BBC News

HRW: Palestinian Communities Stifled by Israel - Associated Press

South Asia

Sri Lanka Ends Ban on U.N. War Crimes Probe Team - BBC News

Sri Lanka Lifts Ban on U.N. War Crime Panel Visit - Reuters

Peacebuilding and Counterinsurgency

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 6:09pm
SWJ friend and Advisory Board member Dr. David Ucko has a new post up at Kings of War entitled Peacebuilding and Counterinsurgency: Two Sides of the Same Coin?

BLUF: "...the recollection of the 'easier' operations of the 1990s, and of the principles derived from these experiences, is deeply flawed and that the requirements for effective third-party engagement in war-to-peace transitions will, whatever we call them, reproduce many of the challenges and requirements encountered in Afghanistan and Iraq. Problematically, these requirements and challenges tend to exceed the ambition and desire to intervene of most European nations."

The post is an offshoot of a recent article, Peace-building after Afghanistan: Between Promise and Peril, by Dr. Ucko that was published in Contemporary Security Policy.