Journal

This essay by two SWJ−El Centro scholars looks at the complexities of US-Mexico relations and the need for cooperation based upon mutual respect to address transnational organized crime.

This article provides perspective on Turkish organized crime and its links throughout Europe and Latin America.

This commentary summarizes the author’s presentation to the United States Department of Defense (DoD) Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) Speaker Series at the Pentagon, Washington, DC on 22 August 2024.The author is Executive Director of the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE)

This essay by Colombian scholar provides insight into the bilateral US-Colombia policy challenges as transnational gangs and criminal armed groups threaten Colombian and regional security

In recent weeks the Ukrainians have sustained a division (-) sized offensive deep into Russian territory southeast of Kursk traveling over the same ground that saw some of the largest tank battles in WW2.  This offensive surprised the Russians and they have not been very effective in countering it.  It is the most significant development in the Ukraine war in over a year.  Below are some of my initial thoughts on this. 

This article provides an overview of research on the Tri-border area (TBA) between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay conducted by the authors as part of the Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) at George Mason University project ‘Hubs of Illicit Trade.’

This essay by SWJ−El Centro Fellow Mahmut Cengiz provides perspective on the intersection of Salifi-Jihadist groups and terrorism in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks. This essay examines the fundamental factors behind the frequent association of Islam with terrorism and offers recommendations for addressing this issue.

Let us discuss war as it is, not as we would like it to be. Regulating war is pointless, and our time and energy would be better spent fighting war quickly, decisively, and with single-minded ruthlessness rather than fretting over ethics. Acting as if law applies to war is a foolish hinderance on its conduct. War drives toward extremes. War should go to these extremes as quickly as possible where it is fought in such a vicious manner that it persuades enemies and neutrals alike that war with us is not worth waging.

To debate the past and the future of the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific, Ambassador Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine have agreed to discuss their new book, Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, for this Strategy Debrief.

This essay by SWJ-El Centro Fellow Dr. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera provides perspective on the recent arrests of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López

Este ensayo de la Dra. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, compañera de SWJ-El Centro, ofrece una perspectiva sobre las recientes detenciones de Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada y Joaquín Guzmán López.

Despite the abrupt departure of President Joe Biden from the 2024 election campaign, and the equally abrupt substitution of Vice President Kamala Harris as his effective proxy, many commentators continue to believe that the November contest remains former President Donald Trump's to lose. Should Trump prevail in November, he will inherit the management of American support for two longtime allies, both of them - Israel and Ukraine - currently engaged in costly, prolonged conflicts. A single major policy change from that of the sitting administration could generate the leverage that Trump requires to end both conflicts in manners favorable to America and the respective international partners, while satisfying, at least in part, the isolationist wing of the Republican party.

On Sunday, 21 July 2024, Milton Morales Figueroa, general coordinator for the tactical strategy and special operations unit of the Secretaría de Seguridad Ciudadana la Ciudad de México (Secretary of Citizen Security of Mexico City) (SSC-CDMX), was assassinated in the municipality of Coacalco, Estado de México (Edomex). Morales Figueroa was a key intelligence official in the fight against organized crime.

On Thursday, 25 July 2024, American law enforcement officials arrested Ismael, ‘El Mayo,’ Zambada García and Joaquín Guzmán López in El Paso, Texas. The two men are prominent leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel and were detained in a private airfield. Both suspects, and their criminal cartel are allegedly linked to drug trafficking—especially trade in fentanyl and methamphetamine.

This short essay provides a projection of the future operational environment (2035-2050)—through the fictional Project WICKED—and its impact on US Army warfighting through the lens of Fourth Epoch War theory. This OSINT fusion-based theory has been utilized since the early 1990s to support US LE, MIL, and GOV activities including Minerva (DoD), Futures Working Group (FBI/PFI), and Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (LA Sheriff’s) programs.

SWJ–El Centro Fellow Howard Campbell, an anthropologist, interviews journalist Kurt Hollander on his new book and photography project Cali Caliente that documents the history and culture of violence in that city.

For 2.5 years the Russians have used strategic assets of Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers, along with Black Sea Fleet ships to fire cruise missiles into Ukraine at civilian targets such as power plants, shopping malls, hydro-electric dams, children’s hospitals and many civilian targets.   This sustained bombing campaign represents institutionalized war crimes from a state sponsor of terror and must be stopped.   Instead of providing weapons that might be able to shoot down the inbound missiles, we must provide weapons to deter the Russian bombers and fleet by going directly at them with weapons that can reach them.

The June 2024 arrest of eight Tajiks inside the United States who are believed to have ties to ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) highlights both the vulnerability of the current open borders of the United States and the persistence of the threat by several international Salafist terror organizations capable of attacking the U.S. homeland.

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National Security News Content:

On Easter Sunday, 21 April 2019, the Islamic State (IS) ravaged Sri Lanka with multiple, coordinated attacks targeting churches and three international hotels killing at least 290 people and injuring hundreds. The death toll included at least 45 foreign nationals, three police officers, and eight suicide bombers. The anatomy of this deadly sequence is the focus of Professor Rohan Gunaratna’s text "Sri Lanka’s Easter Sunday Massacre."

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has witnessed a significant shift in Russian tactics, with fighter-bombers now deploying over 100 large "glide bombs" daily against both military and civilian targets. These precision-guided munitions, some weighing up to 3,000 pounds, are causing devastating damage and need to be countered effectively. The immediate provision of MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Ukraine could be a strategic response to this evolving threat.

Who are the ever-elusive U.S. Army Space Cadre? In this article, the Space Cadre force structure is broken down across its categories – FA40As [Space Operations Officers], FA40Cs [U.S. Army Astronauts], and 3Ys [Space Enabler ASI] – and the components of the U.S. Army. Additionally, this article underpins the space capabilities that Space Cadre can provide to the warfighter, as well as contextualizes their formation and utilization in U.S. warfighting operations such as the Gulf War (1990 - 1991) – dubbed as the “First Space War.” Lastly, this article very briefly highlights the future implications of U.S. Army Space Operations. The purpose of this article is to not only inform U.S. Army Commanders of the space professionals in their ranks but to also encourage the growth and maintenance of the U.S. Army Space Cadre as a small, modular force structure capable of bridging institutional gaps relating to space across the Joint Force.

Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is now in its third year. Ukraine successfully repelled most of Russia’s initial strikes in 2022, and the West rallied to provide enormous support for the battle-hardened Ukrainian people. Yet Ukraine now faces serious challenges on and off the battlefield. Russia is advancing at the same time as international support for Ukraine has been thrown into doubt. The implications stretch far beyond Central and Eastern Europe in what some observers are now calling the opening phases of a renewed Cold War and even a possible World War III.

The ”superpower” of the Army War College, as in most professional military education institutions in the United States, is the presence of international officers from allied and partner nations around the globe.   Each year, some 75 countries send their most talented senior officers to spend a year in Carlisle with their families studying, learning, and living among their American peers. This immersion often leads to forming lifelong personal, as well as professional, bonds that reap rewards for the entire international system for years to come

Irregular Warfare (IW) Campaigning is the art of using available resources by the Department of Defense and other Agencies in a series of linked actions, over an extended period, to eventually gain a marked advantage over your adversary, who will also be referred to as peer competitors. This long-term strategy requires continuity of desired end states through both political administrations and military command rotations. This was done by and large during the Cold War, albeit with course adjustments; the key was that the majority of America never questioned that the Soviet Union was our number one enemy. This basic common focus during the Cold War helped facilitate a unity of purpose and effort from different organizations, if not a unity of command and priority of tasks. So, the question is what agency or headquarters should take the lead in IW campaigning in the present multi-polar complex world?

  The ancient struggle between insurgents and counterinsurgents has grown in significance and frequency since the end of the Second World War, leading to increased attention and study of the subject. Guerrilla warfare has become the most prevalent form of warfare in the world. Insurgents have fought to remove imperialist powers to gain independence, while revolutionaries sought to implement Marxist societal change and the redistribution of resources in alignment with their ideological preferences. The United States has fought protracted insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan to support fledging governments, typically prevailing on the battlefield but frustrated by the political challenges. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of historical examples to evaluate when attempting to understand and appraise this type of warfare.

This narrative explores how a chance meeting in a Miami restaurant shaped Rice's involvement in securing vital military support for the Ukrainian Army, while also acknowledging the broader context of the conflict and the collective efforts of various stakeholders in the largest war in Europe in 80 years, and the 3rd largest war in Europe in 150 years, behind World War II and World War I. 

The central focus of this article revolves around conducting a comprehensive analysis of the role played by defense diplomacy in the intricate context of the Ukraine war. By doing so, it seeks to specifically focus on cooperative endeavors between Western nations and the Ukrainian government. Furthermore, the article strives to highlight the challenges faced in the process. By examining these aspects, we aim to address a pivotal question: What were the profound and consequential domains of cooperation in defense diplomacy between Western states and Ukraine that significantly shaped the trajectory of the war's development? The findings show that the crucial areas of this cooperation encompassed military support, military education, intelligence sharing, as well as legal and legislative collaboration.

A "quasi-outside observer" with tremendous insights into military issues, offers a critique that focuses on US military recruiting but actually does a deeper dive into a variety of service leadership issues with some proposed solutions.

SWJ−El Centro Fellow Mahmut Cengiz provides insight on the rise of Türkiye as a key hub in the global cocaine trade in this assessment of emerging illicit flows.

Review of Chris Dalby's "CJNG: A Quick Guide to Mexico's Deadliest Cartel" by SWJ−El Centro Senior Fellow John P. Sullivan.

This article examines the role that the Mexican military has played in combating drug trafficking, organized crime, and violence. It highlights the security policies and utilization of the military during the Felipe Calderón and Peña Nieto administrations. While President Andrés Manuel López Obrador criticized the militarization of the drug war, he created a national guard, which consist primarily of the military, and deployed them to strategic locations. The article then examines the public opinion data, which shows the high levels of trust in the military. It then turns to regression analysis based to analyze factors that may influence trust in the military. Ultimately, this article concludes that the military remains better trusted than other institutions, but the armed forces have been overutilized in recent decades for a litany of internal security issues.

What is the influence of Colombian organized crime in Ecuador’s Armed Conflict? Building on the concepts of post-insurgencies and border effect, this paper assesses the security crisis in Ecuador by studying criminal learning and subcultures among Criminal Armed Groups (CAGs). While analysts and pundits often highlight the impact of Colombia’s criminal world in the Ecuadorian context, few fathom it. Focusing on the trajectories of CAGs, the paper gathers different lessons resulting from Colombian counterinsurgency over the years and what they mean to Ecuador. The paper zooms in on the criminal learning between CAGs in borderland regions of Nariño (Colombia) and Esmeraldas (Ecuador). It argues that criminal learning is fundamental in how Ecuadorian CAGs, particularly Tiguerones, understand and engage in criminal wars. Furthermore, Tiguerones’ case shows how subculture and symbolic power remain important in post-insurgencies and criminal learning. The authors use official data from law enforcement and secondary information from Colombia and Ecuador.

On January 17th, 2024, the United States redesignated the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). In the weeks that have followed, the United States has become increasingly active in the Gulf, shooting down Houthi drones and striking Houthi targets in Yemen. Given the United States’ increasing involvement with the Houthis, this paper seeks to review the conflict to evaluate both the insurgent and counterinsurgent performance to date. In this evaluation, I argue that not only does the insurgency possess key indicators of success, but the counterinsurgency’s weaknesses debilitate the possibility for success.

This commentary summarizes the author’s keynote address to the United States Department of Defense (DoD) FY26-30 Program Objective Memorandum (POM) Counternarcotics and Stabilization Policy Review and Panel Discussions and Conference at the Pentagon, Washington, DC on 8 May 2024. The POM Review was chaired the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Counternarcotics and Stabilization Policy, in the Office for Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, DoD. The author is Executive Director of the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE).

The shadow of Chinese military aggression looms large over Taiwan. While the island nation has invested in conventional military capabilities, the reality is that a conflict with China could be a classic David and Goliath scenario. To effectively deter an invasion and resist occupation, if necessary, Taiwan needs to move beyond its traditional military focus and embrace a multi-layered defense strategy that includes insurgency and resistance.

Last year, an authorization for the use of force against Mexican cartels was introduced in Congress. Several senior US politicians, including a presidential candidate, have advocated for military strikes against criminal actors involved in trafficking fentanyl. What if the United States engaged in unilateral military action in Mexico? In Blackjack, an American working covertly against criminal organizations finds himself trapped when US drones begin engaging cartel targets. He struggles to reach the US−Mexico border as the bilateral situation deteriorates and chaos erupts around him. Blackjack is a work of “useful fiction” as described by August Cole and PW Singer. It brings together an engaging story with research to provide a glimpse of a near future scenario.

In Building Militaries in Fragile States: Challenges for the United States, Dr. Mara Karlin presents a comparative case study of four United States Government (USG) attempts to strengthen partner militaries’ internal defense. Building Militaries opens with a summary of the Islamic State’s defeat of the Iraqi Army in 2014 after the USG trained the Iraqi Army for ten years and provided $20B in assistance. This scene-setter underscores Karlin’s assessment that the USG’s traditional approach of throwing resources and training at fragile states to shore up those states’ internal defense is not working.

On Monday, 22 April 2024 two paramedics in Celaya, Guanajuato were killed when alleged members of a criminal armed group (CAG) attacked ambulances believed to be linked to their rivals. This attack included armed assault and arson. It occurred during a spike in violence between rival criminal cartels. The violent surge also included fatal attacks on police. 

This opinion piece by SWJ−El Centro Fellow Robert Muggah and transnational organized crime scholar Rajeev Gunnar looks at surging criminal violence and gang proliferation in the Caribbean.

The purpose of this paper is to examine foreseeable patterns of social infrastructure collapse, as brought on by severe resource shortage, and to provide a perspective of the subsequent effects upon the nKorean administrative and political systems.  This paper will discuss general, baseline political consequences resulting from these shortages, and link these consequences to a framework of phases leading to the collapse of the nKorean administrative and political systems. This examination employs assessments based in structure-functionalism analyses of the nKorean administrative system coupled with behavioral analyses of historical Korean socio-political patterns (though the details of those analyses are not included in this paper). This paper will avoid discussion of war except as a calculated alternative to prevent irreparable fracture to the nKorean political system, which would be perceived by the current leadership as the end of their regime.

The "Battle of the Straits" catalyzes a new era in international relations as the great powers realize that a prolonged conflict would lead to mutual economic destruction and global destabilization. It prompts a comprehensive reassessment of foreign policy and the introduction of the "3D+C Integrated Statecraft Solutions" approach—an amalgamation of Diplomacy, Development, Defense, and Commerce to address the complex challenges posed by compound maritime insecurity.

This essay by assess potential regional and global responses to current ISIS-K activities.

This near-future vignette posits a scenario where maritime chokepoints become the stages for a new brand of warfare—a conflict fought in the shadows, where the weapons are as likely to be cyber as they are to be traditional arms. It underscores the fragility of global trade networks and the precariousness of geopolitics in a multipolar world where strategic waterways have become the chessboard for Great Power confrontation.  ]

Challenges to maritime security, especially in choke points like the Red Sea, threaten global trade and present complex, ‘compound security’ issues. These challenges include military threats to navigation that affect energy supplies, economic stability, and efforts to address climate insecurity issues, and especially through energy transition. The United States' Operation Prosperity Guardian seeks to safeguard the waters of the Red Sea and the Bab al Mandeb strait but has had limited success. Current military and diplomatic strategies are inadequate to fully protect these vital economic lifelines, hence the need for a multifaceted "3D+C" approach—combining Defense, Diplomacy, Development, and Commercial strategies.

This research note examines the kidnapping and murder of former Venezuelan military officer, Lieutenant Ronald Ojeda by suspected members of the Tren de Aragua gang in Chile.

SWJ−El Centro Associate reviews "Frontera: a journey across the US-Mexico Border" by Sergio Chapa and Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera.

F-16s will soon be arriving in Ukraine.   That is publicly available information.  What is not known, is what armaments packages they will bring- what rockets, missiles, electronic warfare, navigation systems and bombs they will carry.  We have, in the past, sent in weapons platforms with the suboptimal weapons for the Ukrainian mission, and we should not make that mistake again with the F-16s. 

Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) is expanding its reach into Chile. The group, also known in English, as the First Capital Command is reportedly consolidating its expansion into Chile. This expansion is triggering intense political debate in Chile as the Chilean state seeks to come to terms with transnational organized crime’s impact on the local criminal ecosystem and challenges state capacity to address globalized gangs.

USMA: The latest public relations debacle is taking “Duty, Honor, Country” out of the school’s mission statement.