By Jon Tishman and Dan Schoen
A discussion of threats to U.S. Army (and U.S. military as a whole) night operations, from everyone from near-peer adversaries to irregular actors.
Full Article: https://mwi.usma.edu/we-dont-own-the-night-anymore/
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Opinion | China threw down the gauntlet to the Biden team on day one
2. “The President Threw Us Under the Bus”: Embedding With Pentagon Leadership in Trump’s Chaotic Last Week
3. U.S. to resume processing thousands of stalled visas for Afghans who aided Americans
4. White House Orders Assessment on Violent Extremism in U.S.
5. Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pick for Secretary of Defense, Approved by Senate
6. Day One Message to the Force From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III
7. New Officials Sworn-In at the Department of Defense
8. Want to Stop the Next Crisis? Teaching Cyber Citizenship Must Become a National Priority
9. Pandemic Numbers Are (Finally) Tiptoeing in the Right Direction
10. The True Power of Social Media Restrictions
11. Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan
12. Military and Police Investigate Members Charged in Capitol Riot
13. The Covid-19 Origin Investigation
14. China is hitting back at criticism of its vaccines with a dangerous disinformation campaign
15. Counter-Terrorism and the Rule of Law
16. Sen. Tom Cotton campaigned on his "experience as an Army Ranger"
17. Order from Chaos: The Architecture of American Renewal Comes from a Mindset of Grey-Zone Superiority — a Great Power monograph
1. Opinion | China threw down the gauntlet to the Biden team on day one
The Washington Post – by Josh Rogin - January 21, 2021
Conclusion: China’s opening salvo leaves no room for doubt: Contentious competition will be the focus of the U.S.-China relationship for the next four years. Beijing’s greatest fear is that the Biden team will be better at it than Trump.
2. “The President Threw Us Under the Bus”: Embedding With Pentagon Leadership in Trump’s Chaotic Last Week
A long and fascinating story about former Acting SECDEF Chris Miller. Chris was the "man in the arena."
Vanity Fair · by Adam Ciralsky – 22 January 2021
3. U.S. to resume processing thousands of stalled visas for Afghans who aided Americans
The Washington Post – by Savannah George - January 21, 2021
Excerpts:
“Because this is a multistep process ... if one step is put on hold, it’s inevitable that a bulge will form at that point in the system,” Alagesan said. She and other refugee advocates believe the backlog created by the 2020 slowdown will be felt for years to come unless the Biden administration makes dramatic changes.
All Special Immigrant Visa applicants already hold some kind of security clearance that allows them to work closely with U.S. military or government personnel but are vetted again by multiple U.S. security and intelligence agencies. Applicants are also required to sit for multiple interviews and a rigorous medical examination. In all, 14 steps are required before an applicant and his or her immediate family is cleared to travel.
As security deteriorates in many parts of Afghanistan, that wait time is putting Afghan applicants at greater risk.
4. White House Orders Assessment on Violent Extremism in U.S.
The New York Times · January 22, 2021
Necessary but this is also a potential minefield that could contribute to increased recruitment and radicalization if there are significant missteps. And there needs to be a strong IO plan to accompany this and protect the action. The majority of this "fight" is going to take place in the information domain and we will need to be able to operate effectively in that domain.
5. Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pick for Secretary of Defense, Approved by Senate
thetablet.org · by Bill Miller · January 21, 2021
A fairly comprehensive story about our new SECDEF.
Of course I would highlight this excerpt:
As the Vietnam War raged, patriotic attitudes prevailed in Thomasville, Austin said.
He recalled his fascination with his father’s World War II experiences, a retired postal worker, who served with the U.S. Army Air Corps in the Philippines. Another influence was an uncle who joined the U.S. Army Special Forces.
“He’d come home wearing a green beret and those airborne wings,” Austin said. “He was just really squared away. He talked to me about what he was doing, the ability to serve your country, and that sort of business. Despite the fact Vietnam was a war raging at the time, it was clear to me that one of the things that I really felt that I needed to do was to find a way to serve in the military.”
6. Day One Message to the Force From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III
defense.gov - Jan. 22, 2021
I am honored to have this chance to serve again and to do so alongside you and your families. My wife, Charlene, and I know all too well the sacrifices you make to keep this country safe. That safety is job one, and I promise to work as hard as you do at it.
The way I see it, my job as Secretary of Defense is to make you more effective at doing yours. That means ensuring you have the tools, technology, weapons, and training to deter and defeat our enemies. It means establishing sound policy and strategy and assigning you clear missions. It means putting a premium on cooperation with our allies and partners. And it means living up to our core values, the same ones our fellow citizens expect of us.
Right now, of course, doing my job also means helping our country get control of the pandemic, which has killed more than 400,000 Americans. You have already come to the aid of our Nation's health care professionals. You can expect that mission to continue. But we must help the Federal Government move further and faster to eradicate the devastating effects of the coronavirus. To that end, we will also do everything we can to vaccinate and care for our workforce and to look for meaningful ways to alleviate the pressure this pandemic has exerted on you and your families.
None of us succeeds at this business alone. Defending the country requires teamwork and cooperation. It requires a certain humility, a willingness to learn, and absolute respect for one another. I know you share my devotion to these qualities.
I am proud to be back on your team.
The Day One Message to the Force memo can be found here.
7. New Officials Sworn-In at the Department of Defense
For those tracking these officials.
8. Want to Stop the Next Crisis? Teaching Cyber Citizenship Must Become a National Priority
TIME · by P.W. Singer and Michael McConnell – 22 January 2021
Excerpts:
How do we better equip the next generation of American citizens, so that they won’t suffer our generations’ fate?
Here is what the research shows. When the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace recently gathered 85 proposals made by 51 different organizations exploring what needed to be done to battle against the online forces of mis- and disinformation that contaminate and poison truth, by far the most frequently recommended policy action was to raise the digital literacy of those who consume that information.
Sometime also described as “media literacy” or “cyber citizenship,” digital literacy is about having the skills to succeed in an increasingly digital world. It is not just about being able to find information online (which is all too easy), but also to be able to analyze and evaluate it for everything from its sourcing to whether someone is trying to manipulate you or not. Or, as a RAND Corporation report on the value of such skills as an essential tool to battling misinformation or “truth decay” summed, it is about “teaching participants how to think without dictating what to think.”
And yet, the vast majority of the policy, media, and civil society have focused on remedies that do not involve this priority. Instead, we keep looking for silver bullets through rewriting the legal codes that govern social media or the software code they use to run their networks. Each approach is certainly worthy of attention.
9. Pandemic Numbers Are (Finally) Tiptoeing in the Right Direction
defenseone.com · by The COVID Tracking Project
Do not jinx us. Hopefully this trend will continue.
10. The True Power of Social Media Restrictions
The National Interest · by Eric Farnsworth · January 22, 2021
A "knotty issue?" Perhaps that is an understatement.
Finally, there is the knotty issue of which individuals specifically should be prevented from access to social media, and whether such categories won’t expand to include officials from regimes that Washington simply doesn’t like or those who may be promoting policies that may not rise to the level of criminality or crimes against humanity but rather amount to little more than differences on social issues, say, or climate change and the environment, or other areas of disagreement, no matter how intense. There must therefore be strict policies and guidelines that focus on those who are credibly accused of legally-sanctionable behavior. A presidential “finding” or Congressional action may be warranted to define the specific, narrow, and very rare instances when the social media sanction should be applied in furtherance of U.S. foreign policy goals.
The True Power of Social Media Restrictions
The way in which authoritarians use social media is somewhat akin to the manner in which Adolf Hitler used the then-emerging radio technology to appeal to the German people above the heads of the traditional media of the time. Without radio, he still might have become chancellor, but at least it would have been more difficult.
11. Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan
WSJ · by Trefor Moss
Excerpts:
“The stuff the government says in the media—I don’t believe a word of it,” he said, echoing the protests that greeted Ms. Sun, the vice premier, on her visit last year. “Personally, I think the Covid situation could still be serious.”
Mr. Zhu blames officials for the deaths of his relatives. He said they lied about the epidemic in its first weeks, putting millions of people in danger to safeguard their own careers. He expressed outrage that the government had seemingly learned nothing from the 2003 outbreak of a similar novel coronavirus known as Sars that infected over 8,000 people, mostly in China, amid an attempted government coverup.
“They still operate in exactly the same way—suppressing, blocking news, covering things up,” he said.
Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan
12. Military and Police Investigate Members Charged in Capitol Riot
WSJ · by Deepa Seetharaman, Zusha Elinson and Ben Kesling
13. The Covid-19 Origin Investigation
WSJ · by The Editorial Board
This needs more attention and focus in the news and within the international community and international organizations.
14. China is hitting back at criticism of its vaccines with a dangerous disinformation campaign
CNN · by James Griffiths
Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations.
15. Counter-Terrorism and the Rule of Law
warontherocks.com · by Deborah Pearlstein · January 22, 2021
Rule of law must prevail always.
Conclusion: "Where one can find them, such bipartisan expressions of a commitment to shared principles are essential in helping to shore up slipping confidence in governmental institutions. They enable officials to rebuild some muscle memory of what it is like to govern across partisan lines and to reinforce normative beliefs in law’s ability to constrain power. And they offer some cause for hope that when the inevitable next set of rule violations arise, there remains a rule-of-law system still able, over time, to correct itself."
16. Sen. Tom Cotton campaigned on his "experience as an Army Ranger"
Salon · January 23, 2021
Wow. Salon.com takes on the Ranger qualified versus US Army Ranger debate. I would not expect it from this media outlet but I guess it suits their purpose to be able to criticize Senator Cotton.
But the lesson for all of us is: don't exaggerate (and it goes without saying, don't lie) about your military service.
17. Order from Chaos: The Architecture of American Renewal Comes from a Mindset of Grey-Zone
https://www.greatpower.us/p/autocracy-ascends-the-cracks-of-democracy - by Molly McKew
Superiority — a Great Power monograph
I missed this when it was originally published. Now 5 parts have been published and can be accessed at the links below. The introduction us pasted below.
A lot to parse from this. So can we gain "grey-zone superiority."
Excerpts:
Currently, we lack the mindset, vision, organization, or mobilization capacity to overcome these deficits — and we have lacked the leadership and political will to reorient in the right direction. We don’t even really assess them apiece — as a common failure in mobilizing our resources toward the correct set of problems. We need a unified approach to enhance resilience at home and abroad — which means we need to compete in, and have operational and intelligence capabilities in, all the grey spaces where our adversaries attack us, collect on us, infiltrate us, or can count on us being absent or flat-footed.
At home and abroad, we are challenged along the seams — and in these grey spaces, attribution can be murky, authority for action unclear, right-sized capabilities hard to determine. Right now, the way we organize and mobilize diminishes rather than unleashes formal and informal American capabilities that would be sharp in these domains. Transforming our mindset on this entire conception of strength and power is a necessary first step toward creating the resilience that will begin to alter this terrible math where the West is strong — economically, militarily — but seems to be fractious and declining while autocracies that are systemically fragile seem to be cohesive and ascending.
"Insurrection by means of guerrilla bands is the true method of warfare for all nations desirous of emancipating themselves from a foreign yoke. It is invincible, indestructible."
- Giuseppe Mazzini
"In such a society as ours the only possible chance for change, for mobility, for political, economic, and moral flow lies in the tactics of guerrilla warfare, in the use of fictions, of language."
- Kathy Acker
"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence - true friendship is a plant of slow growth."
- George Washington
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. From the Jerusalem of the East to a Totalitarian Regime: North Korea’s History Behind Christian Persecution
2. National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness
3. N. Korea has consistent direction, changing tactics to develop nukes: U.S. official
4. N. Korean nuclear activities pose serious threat to peace: Psaki
5. North Korean Defectors Want Biden to Be Forceful with Kim Jong Un
6. 'No likelihood of North Korea collapse with Kim in complete control'
7. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state
8. Why Does Gov't Persist in Peddling N.Korea Fantasies?
9. Singapore deal Moon wants Biden to inherit was flawed: US experts
10. North Korea sees talks as way to advance nuclear program, says US intel official
11. North Korea Directs Companies to Eliminate ‘Import Disease’ and Pursue Self-Reliance
12. North Korean Trade Officials Scramble to Import Chinese Construction Materials
13. North Korea diplomacy is only used to advance nuclear programme, says top US official
14. Opinion | Kim Jong Un likes to provoke new U.S. presidents. Biden’s team should be prepared.
15. Post-Party Congress Clean-up in Pyongyang
16. Kim Yo Jong Stays in the Picture
1. From the Jerusalem of the East to a Totalitarian Regime: North Korea’s History Behind Christian Persecution
nkhiddengulag.org – 21 January 2021
Excerpt: There are multiple reasons as to why the Kim regime would feel particularly threatened by Christianity. Along with its historically strong connection with North Korea’s enemy, America, Christianity has had a transformational effect on Korea both politically and ideologically along with the promotion of social change on the peninsula.
2. National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness
JANUARY 21, 2021 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES
Excerpt:
(c) COVID-19 Sanctions Relief. The Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of HHS and the Administrator of USAID, shall promptly review existing United States and multilateral financial and economic sanctions to evaluate whether they are unduly hindering responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and provide recommendations to the President, through the APNSA and the COVID-19 Response Coordinator, for any changes in approach.
I am concerned about the above paragraph and what it might mean for north Korea. It is possible that the White House could decide to lift sanctions for humanitarian reasons based on NSD-1. I recommend against that because as I have mentioned the Korean people in the north are suffering because of the deliberate policy choices Kim Jong-un has made and continues to make. He has sufficient resources to relieve the suffering but he has prioritized resourcing the military over the welfare of the people. He provided evidence to this effect on October 10th at the military parade for the 75th anniversary of the Korean Workers Party and during the 8th Party Congress that took place last week. He showed us the modern military equipment he has chosen to invest in. I would also argue that the regime is sanctioned because of its malign activity - its nuclear and missile programs, its proliferation activities, its global illicit activities, its cyber activities, and its human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. If we lift sanctions on any of these activities we are no longer holding the regime accountable for that malign activity. I would ask anyone who advocates lifting sanctions to state which of these activities do they wish to condone? And of course, Kim could have sanctions lifted if would simply comply with the requirements of the sanctions. The bottom line is it is Kim who is causing the suffering of the Korean people in the north, not the US or international sanctions.
3. N. Korea has consistent direction, changing tactics to develop nukes: U.S. official
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 23, 2021
Good analysis from our National Intelligence Officer for north Korea.
At the party congress, Kim said the country has successfully developed "tactical" and submarine-launched nuclear weapons.
"What we see in the eighth party congress readout is a strategic snapshot of what we have been seen all along," said Seiler. "It really doesn't give us, you know, extremely helpful insight into what the next provocation is, or what the timing of Kim's next diplomatic outreach reach might be, but we can see in it that the fundamentals of North Korea aren't really changing."
He also noted the North's new "tactical" nuclear weapons pose a direct threat to South Korea.
4. N. Korean nuclear activities pose serious threat to peace: Psaki
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 23, 2021
As an aside I am really enjoying the White House press briefings.
Key point: Psaki said the administration will come up with a strategy to deal with the North, but will first review available options, including diplomacy, through consultation with U.S. allies, including South Korea.
However, I do have criticism for Ms. Psaki. Her comments about the north Korean nuclear threat are of course correct; however, by making those comments we are reinforcing the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un. He interprets those comments as the world fears him as the leader of a nuclear power. Obviously, we have to talk about the nuclear threats. But whenever we do talk about the threat, we also need to balance that with comments that Kim Jong-un is the worst human rights violator in the modern era and that he denies the human rights of the Korean people in the north solely to remain in power. and it is his pursuit of nuclear weapons that is causing the great suffering inside north Korea. He has chosen to prioritize nuclear weapons over the welfare of the people. Such comments will be picked up by VOA and RFA (as they conduct their mission to explain US policy to populations in information denied areas) and broadcast into north Korea for the Korean people. It is important that the human rights message be repeated over and over again and every time we talk about the nuclear program we need to talk about the crimes against humanity Kim Jong-un is guilty of.
5. North Korean Defectors Want Biden to Be Forceful with Kim Jong Un
voanews.com · by Hyun Suk Kim, Yanghee Jang – 21 January 2021
We should pay attention to escapees.
6. 'No likelihood of North Korea collapse with Kim in complete control'
The Korea Times · January 22, 2021
By all accounts Kim is in control. But given the current conditions that could change and we must be vigilant for the indicators of potential instability. The actions Kim is taking to ensure he remains in power could result in blowback like there has never been such blowback before.
7. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 22, 2021
I cannot imagine too many people more qualified than Sung Kim for EAP.
Excerpt: Still, it was not clear whether Kim would be formally nominated to become the assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, which requires Senate approval, or if he is temporarily filling the post vacated by David Stilwell, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump.
8. Why Does Gov't Persist in Peddling N. Korea Fantasies?
Fantasies? Simply erroneous strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. The Moon administration assumptions have been proven wrong time and again over the past four years. When your assumptions are wrong you have to change your policy and strategy.
9. Singapore deal Moon wants Biden to inherit was flawed: US experts
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 22, 2021
We should look at the Singapore agreement through the lens Syd Seiler describes. The regime uses negotiations to advance its nuclear program. Every agreement will be less than perfect of course. We must recognize the Kim is conducting his form of political warfare and we need to conduct a superior form of it.
Here is my summary of the regime's political warfare strategy that I think was reaffirmed at the 8th Party Congress:
•Political Warfare
•Subversion, coercion, extortion
•“Blackmail diplomacy” – the use of tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions
•Example: Kim Yo-jong threats in June – ROK anti-leaflet law in December
•Negotiate to set conditions - not to denuclearize
•Set Conditions for unification (domination to complete the revolution)
•Split ROK/US alliance
•Reduce/weaken defense of the South
•Exploit regional powers (e.g, China and Russia)
•Economics by Juche ideology – the paradox of “reform”
•Illicit activities to generate funds for regime
•Deny human rights to ensure regime survival
•Continue to exploit COVID threat to suppress dissent and crack down on 400+ markets and foreign currency use
•Priority to military and nuclear programs
•For deterrence or domination?
So when we want to tout the Singapore deal (and we should hold it up to Kim Jong-un to remind him of his commitment to denuclearize as Frank Aum recommends) we need to understand how Kim uses it to support his political warfare strategy.
10. North Korea sees talks as way to advance nuclear program, says US intel official
The Korea Times · January 23, 2021
The National Intelligence Officer speaks and the Korean press listens and parses every word!
11. North Korea Directs Companies to Eliminate ‘Import Disease’ and Pursue Self-Reliance
This is why I call Kim Jong-un's policy "economics by Juche."
Some descriptions of Juche:
Han S Park. ed. North Korea: Ideology, Politics, Economy, (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall,1996), p. 15 in which Han S. Park describes Juche as theology. See also the Korea military news paper “KuK Pang Ilbo” editorial on 15 MAR 99, p. 6. Chuje’s (Juche) basic concept is this: “Man rules all things; man decides all things.” “The Kim Il Song Chuche ideology is based on these precepts: In ideology Chuche (autonomy); in politics, self-reliance; in economics, independence; and in National Security: self-defense.” See also Mattes Savada, ed., North Korea: A Country Study (Washington: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1994), p. 324., “Kim Il Sung’s application of Marxism-Leninism to North Korean culture and serves as a fundamental tenet of the national ideology. “Based on autonomy and self-reliance, chuch’e has been popularized since 1955 as an official guideline for independence in politics, economics, national defense and foreign policy.”
12. North Korean Trade Officials Scramble to Import Chinese Construction Materials
Hardly an example of self-reliance.
13. North Korea diplomacy is only used to advance nuclear programme, says top US official
The Guardian · January 23, 2021
Again, Syd Seiler's comments are getting a lot of press (and that is a good thing). Every US and ROK official needs to commit these words to memory and put them in the forefront of their minds when they are developing policy and strategy toward north Korea.
Excerpts:
Sydney Seiler, the US national intelligence officer for North Korea, told the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank earlier that Pyongyang’s weapons development had been a consistent policy for 30 years.
“Every engagement in diplomacy has been designed to further the nuclear programme, not to find a way out … I just urge people not to let the tactical ambiguity obstruct the strategic clarity about North Korea that we have,” he said.
In my words: we must understand and deal with north Korea's political warfare strategy.
14. Opinion | Kim Jong Un likes to provoke new U.S. presidents. Biden’s team should be prepared.
The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · January 22, 2021
It is interesting the Washington Post Editorial Board chooses this as the subject two days after the inauguration and when the initial focus of the Biden Administration must be on COVID-19 and the economy. Perhaps they are Sun Tzu acolytes: "Never assume your enemy will not atack, make yourself invincible."
15. Post-Party Congress Clean-up in Pyongyang
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · January 22, 2021
16. Kim Yo Jong Stays in the Picture
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · January 22, 2021
A key point: "The Party Congress, along with other political events during the last half of 2020, is shifting North Korean policy priorities away from foreign affairs and diplomatic engagement toward bolstering the country’s defense industry and the developing missiles and WMDs."
Not mentioned in this good analysis is her continued role in the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) and the Propaganda and Agitation Department. I would argue that she has more power in the OGD than she would derive from a Politburo title.
"Insurrection by means of guerrilla bands is the true method of warfare for all nations desirous of emancipating themselves from a foreign yoke. It is invincible, indestructible."
- Giuseppe Mazzini
"In such a society as ours the only possible chance for change, for mobility, for political, economic, and moral flow lies in the tactics of guerrilla warfare, in the use of fictions, of language."
- Kathy Acker
"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence - true friendship is a plant of slow growth."
- George Washington
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. National Guard allowed back into Capitol complex after lawmakers erupt at banishment to parking garage
2. Austin to scrub US Pacific posture; more bases, troops likely
3. Biden should focus Defense Production Act on fixing the COVID supply chain
4. Chinese sanctions on former US cabinet members send powerful deterrent message
5. Beijing sanctions Pompeo, other anti-China hawks, sets 'bottom line' on bilateral ties
6. At Voice of America, a sweeping ouster of Trump officials on Biden’s first full day
7. Cut loose by tech giants, will far-right extremists be adrift?
8. Biden’s ‘big four’ to refine Trump’s China policy
9. Biden orders sweeping assessment of Russian hacking, even while renewing nuclear treaty
10. Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride
11. The last chance for American internationalism
12. US charges Indonesian extremist Hambali in 2002 Bali bombings
13. Nearly 1 in 5 defendants in Capitol riot cases served in the military
1. National Guard allowed back into Capitol complex after lawmakers erupt at banishment to parking garage
CNN · Oren Liebermann & Besty Klein · January 22, 2021
No doubt this looks bad and there was some bad planning and communication. But this begs the question: why is the National Guard still deployed? Is it because they do not have a redeployment plan? Doubtful.
Or is it because there is still credible intelligence that a threat remains? Or is there a fear that, as soon as they are redeployed, another incident will occur?
2. Austin to scrub US Pacific posture; more bases, troops likely
Breaking Defense · Colin Clark · January 21, 2021
FDD recommendations for INDOPACOM (and all theaters) are here: "Defending Forward Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad"
3. Biden should focus Defense Production Act on fixing the COVID supply chain
Defense News · Jeffrey P. Bialos · January 21, 2021
Like the old adage from the 1990s, “It's the economy, stupid!" Here, it is, "it's the supply chain, stupid!"
4. Chinese sanctions on former US cabinet members send powerful deterrent message
Global Times · Yu Jincui · January 21, 2021
Well, the Chinese Communist Party is clearly articulating its intent through its propaganda mouthpiece, The Global Times.
5. Beijing sanctions Pompeo, other anti-China hawks, sets 'bottom line' on bilateral ties
Global Times · Chen Qingqing et al · January 21, 2021
More from the CCP mouthpiece. Their intent could not be clearer.
They are paying for being members of the Trump administration and for implementing anti-Chinese policies.
They are warning members of the Biden administration that they too will pay for anti-Chinese policy making.
6. At Voice of America, a sweeping ouster of Trump officials on Biden’s first full day
Washington Post · Paul Farhi · January 21, 2021
Now we will see if this new team can effectively accomplish the USAGM/VOA/RFA/RFE/RL mission in support of US national security. This is one of the most important organizations in support of our information instrument of national power.
7. Cut loose by tech giants, will far-right extremists be adrift?
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · Alicia Wanless · January 19, 2021
Is the deluge of political disinformation really waning?
8. Biden’s ‘big four’ to refine Trump’s China policy
Asia Times · Richard Javad Heydarian · January 22, 2021
9. Biden orders sweeping assessment of Russian hacking, even while renewing nuclear treaty
New York Times · David E. Sanger & Julian E. Barnes · January 21, 2021
Absolutely necessary.
Frankly, I am more worried about the cyber threat than the nuclear threat. Obviously we still must modernize our nuclear forces and deter nuclear war as it is the most dangerous threat. But cyber is the most likely threat and it can do tremendous damage in ways that could be extremely deadly.
10. Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride
Asia Times · MK Bhadrakumar · January 22, 2021
An Indian perspective. Here is the author's bio, which is worth a read all by itself.
11. The last chance for American internationalism
Foreign Affairs · Hal Brands · January 20, 2021
12. US charges Indonesian extremist Hambali in 2002 Bali bombings
South China Morning Post · Agence France-Presse · January 22, 2021
The CT fight must continue.
13. Nearly 1 In 5 defendants in Capitol riot cases served in the military
NPR · Tom Dreisbach & Meg Anderson · January 21, 2021
Of course, not every former military person there was radicalized or had any intent of attacking the democratic process at the Capitol. I know most military members who supported Trump are not radicalized and believe in supporting and defending the Constitution. We need to be careful about painting all military personnel and al Trump supporters with a broad brush.
But the question is asked: does this mean there is a radicalization problem in the military? I was asked about this issue by a journalist recently. Here is my response.
This is probably one of the most complex and difficult issues the military must address.
On the one hand, extremism in the ranks absolutely cannot be tolerated. On the other hand, the appearance of witch hunts and purges and unfounded and mistaken allegations will undermine good order and discipline of military units as much as radicals in the ranks.
This problem is a leadership issue, a law enforcement investigation issue, and even a counterintelligence issue. Leaders at all levels must know the signs of extremism and deal with military personnel who are acting in accordance with extremist beliefs. The problem is drawing the line between what may be legitimate political views (which may be distasteful to some) and what is deemed extremist activity. The chain of command can only act when someone is violating the UCMJ or other laws. And if the military embarks on a campaign to identify those with extremist beliefs and makes mistakes or overreaches, it will not only undermine trust and confidence in military leadership. It will play right into the propaganda narratives of extremist organizations.
I do not know if the reserve components are more vulnerable than active-duty personnel. Frankly, I doubt there is that much difference. Ideology and beliefs do not halt at military gates and checkpoints, especially in the information age.
And another issue would be if the military ever started trying to monitor online activity of service members. Again, this would serve to really disrupt military organizations and, again, play into the extremist propaganda narrative and would contribute to radicalizing more personnel.
If I was advising a foreign intelligence organization, I would start creating and providing false information about servicemembers' beliefs. I would create deep fakes to implicate service members in extremist activity to cause overreactions by unit chains of command. This would be one of the most subversive actions that could be taken against modern military organizations in western democracies.
Again, we cannot tolerate extremist activity in the ranks. But if we over-react to it, we will damage the military and contribute to the radicalization and recruitment of more personnel.
There are no easy answers, but leaders, law enforcement investigators, and counterintelligence personnel are going to have figure this out without playing into the hands of the extremists.
The bottom line: an extremely complex and dangerous problem with no easy answers.
"We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.”
- Judge Learned Hand
"Science gives us knowledge, but only philosophy can give us wisdom."
- Will Durant
"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."
- Hans von Seeckt.
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state
2. Unification ministry announces guidelines on leafleting ban to clarify 'scope of application'
3. Bon voyage
4. New virus cases under 400 again; alert in place against potential upticks
5. USFK issues movement restriction order for Kunsan base over virus cases
6. North Korea’s new sub missile is first step toward a new ICBM
7. 'Outrageous': North Korea lashes out at Australia's 'violations'
8. South Korea remains on guard for provocations from North
9. Moon to accept Britain's invitation to G-7 summit, official says
10. U.N. Report: more than 45% of North Koreans undernourished
11. North Korea begins human testing of its own COVID-19 vaccine
12. The ins and outs of North Korea's smartphone security authentications bypass program, Bidulgi
13. Ex-US envoy calls China 'malign influence,' urges Seoul to join new alliance
14. No cases? No chance. The truth about North Korea and Covid-19
15. After Trump setbacks, Kim Jong Un starts over with Biden
1. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state
Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · January 22, 2021
A good man.
Now who will be the US Special Representative to North Korea and the US Ambassador for North Korean Human Rights?
2. Unification ministry announces guidelines on leafleting ban to clarify ‘scope of application’
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 22, 2021
We need a comprehensive sophisticated information and influence activities campaign for the ROK/US alliance.
3. Bon voyage
Korea Joong Ang Daily · NEWS1 · January 22, 2021
4. New virus cases under 400 again; alert in place against potential upticks
Yonhap News Agency · 주경돈 · January 22, 2021
It is only through the implementation of aggressive public health measures that the numbers be reduced.
5. USFK issues movement restriction order for Kunsan base over virus cases
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · January 22, 2021
While it appears that South Korea is making improvements in the COVID fight, USFK is experiencing real challenges despite being under a very severe lockdown (shelter in place).
There will be impacts on readiness. Not all work can be done from home. Of course, the only thing that might be worse is the situation in North Korea. Hopefully as long as the North has to deal with COVID measures, it will not be able to execute its campaign plan against the South.
6. North Korea’s New Sub Missile Is First Step Toward a New ICBM
Foreign Policy · Morten Soendergaard Larsen · January 21, 2021
7. ‘Outrageous’: North Korea lashes out at Australia’s ‘violations’
Yahoo News Australia · Olivia Lambert · January 21, 2021
North Korea; admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations.
Here are some counter accusations.
8. South Korea remains on guard for provocations from North
UPI · Elizabeth Shim · January 21, 2021
As we all must. But one thing in our favor may be the COVID situation in the North.
9. Moon to accept Britain's invitation to G-7 summit, official says
Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · January 22, 2021
South Korea: a strong middle power.
10. U.N. Report: more than 45% of North Koreans undernourished
UPI · Thomas Maresca · January 21, 2021
The buried lede: as bad and as tragic as things are in North Korea, it is only the worst in the Asia-Pacific region, not the world. There are actually others suffering worse than the Koreans living in the North.
11. North Korea begins human testing of its own COVID-19 vaccine
Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · January 22, 2021
So, to test the vaccine you would think they would have access to COVID. I wonder if they will do "live agent testing" and deliberately directly expose vaccination testers to the virus. I fear they have about 120,00 test "volunteers" from their gulags.
12. The ins and outs of North Korea's smartphone security authentications bypass program, Bidulgi
Daily NK · Mun Dong Hui · January 22, 2021
My guess this is an intelligence collection tool. Anyone downloading files will likely be able to be tracked.
It could be that the North Koreans are becoming more and more dependent on information technology. As this dependence increases, more vulnerabilities will be created, which will present opportunities for everything – intelligence collection, offensive cyber operations, and penetration of systems to support information and influence activities.
13. Ex-US envoy calls China 'malign influence,' urges Seoul to join new alliance
Korea Times · Yi Whan-woo · January 22, 2021
Exit interview for Ambassador Harris.
This last sentence is spoken like a true diplomat. We do need South Korea to join other countries (did not say Quad) to counter Chinese malign influence. South Korea has been one of the chief victims of Chinese malign influence (some would say for about the past 2 or so thousand years).
14. No cases? No chance. The truth about North Korea and Covid-19
Wired · Matt Burgess · January 22, 2021
Two words: "Yeah, right."
15. After Trump setbacks, Kim Jong Un starts over with Biden
Associated Press · Kim Tong-Hyung · January 22, 2021
It is the last point in the last sentence that we need to make sure Kim understands: if he screws up, he will suffer more.
"We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.”
- Judge Learned Hand
"Science gives us knowledge, but only philosophy can give us wisdom."
- Will Durant
"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."
- Hans von Seeckt.
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Announces Sanctions on Pompeo and Others
2. Read the full text of Amanda Gorman's inaugural poem 'The Hill We Climb'
3. Army falsely denied Flynn's brother was involved in key part of military response to Capitol riot
4. Beijing Fills the Mideast Vacuum
5. Defined By Scandal At Voice of America, CEO Resigns At Biden's Request
6. QAnon believers struggle with inauguration.
7. President Biden's Tech To-Do List
8. Amazon offers Biden resources for COVID-19 vaccine rollout
9. China revives conspiracy theory of US army link to Covid
10. Irregular Warfare (IW) - Commentary (Jan 2021) | SOF News
11. 'Really quite shocking': Inside the ugly transition at the Pentagon
12. 'Are you QAnon?': One Trump official's brush with an internet cult gone horribly wrong
13. SecDef nominee pledges to evaluate information operations
14. Perspective | The media can be glad for the Biden White House's return to normalcy. But let's not be lulled.
15. Biden is inheriting a nonexistent Covid-19 vaccine plan from Trump administration, sources say
16. EXC: Biden Just Picked A CIA Director With a 7-Year-Long Relationship with Chinese Communist Party Fronts
17. EXC: Biden Personnel Chief Served At Chinese Intel Org Flagged By FBI For Recruiting Western Spies
1. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Announces Sanctions on Pompeo and Others
This action seems to be an attempt to punish these former officials. Is this intended to try to make them unemployable with any company or organization that has ties to China? This is just not about banning them from traveling to China, Hong Kong or Macao
Is this a form of Chinese Lawfare? (Legal warfare for China, like artillery, prepares the 'terrain' for further action. Chinese legal warfare is designed to weaken the will of domestic and foreign populations, and to diminish their trust in law as well as in their leaders - all with the purpose of building support for China's interests. China's long-term approach is effective in building its narratives and furthering its efforts to achieve legitimacy. https://sites.duke.edu/lawfire/2020/02/02/guest-post-andres-munoz-mosqueras-and-nikoleta-chalanoulis-essay-china-an-active-practitioner-of-legal-warfare/)
More importantly is this intended as a message to the policymakers in the Biden Administration? If you mess with China you will be unemployable after you leave the administration?
2. Read the full text of Amanda Gorman's inaugural poem 'The Hill We Climb'
cnbc.com By Jennifer Liu
For those who missed it, Miss Gorman's brilliant recitation can be seen at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whZqA0z61jY&fbclid
It is worth watching. I think this poem will be studied in English classes for years to come.
3. Army falsely denied Flynn's brother was involved in key part of military response to Capitol riot
The Washington Post · January 21, 2021
Hmmm....
4. Beijing Fills the Mideast Vacuum
WSJ · by Robert D. Kaplan
A provocative subtitle.
Conclusion: “For centuries British foreign policy was aimed at preventing any one power from dominating continental Europe. Similarly, American foreign policy should now aim at preventing any one power from dominating Afro-Eurasia-what the great British geographer Halford Mackinder labeled the "World-Island." By linking Europe with East Asia through the Middle East, China would eventually develop the ability to threaten North America economically and militarily. This is ultimately what Belt and Road is all about. The Biden administration must focus on stopping it.”
5. Defined By Scandal At Voice of America, CEO Resigns At Biden's Request
NPR · by David Folkenflik · January 20, 2021
Certainly not unexpected.
6. QAnon believers struggle with inauguration.
The New York Times · by Kevin Roose · January 20, 2021
Wow!
Again, it is difficult for me to believe how anyone can take QAnon seriously. I wonder if the QAnon "influencers" actually believe the BS they spew?
Excerpts:
“Others expressed anger with QAnon influencers who had told believers to expect a dramatic culmination on Inauguration Day.
"A lot of YouTube journalists have just lost one hell of a lot of credibility," wrote a commenter in one QAnon chat room.
Still others attempted to shift the goal posts, and simply told their fellow "anons" to hang on and wait for future, unspecified developments.
"Don't worry about what happens at 12 p.m.," wrote one QAnon influencer. "Watch what happens after that."
And some appeared to realize that they'd been duped.
"It's over," one QAnon chat room participant wrote, just after Mr. Biden's swearing-in.
"Wake up," another wrote. "We've been had."
7. President Biden's Tech To-Do List
The New York Times · by Shira Ovide · January 20, 2021
Excerpts:
What else? Mr. Biden's economic revival plan includes suggestions to "launch the most ambitious effort ever" to modernize U.S. cyberdefenses. Maybe this is the year for a federal data privacy law? And there are rifts among Democrats on special employment treatment for "gig" workers.
The most urgent priorities for the new administration are to end the pandemic and help Americans recover from the damage. But how the U.S. government handles these complex tech questions will also have a big effect on Americans and others around the world.
8. Amazon offers Biden resources for COVID-19 vaccine rollout
TechCrunch · by Brian Heater
9. China revives conspiracy theory of US army link to Covid
The Guardian · by Helen Davidson · January 20, 2021
Excerpts:
“Tit-for-tat accusations of the virus beginning in a lab have bubbled since at least mid-2020, after China's attempts to cover up the initial outbreak. In recent months Chinese officials have ramped up efforts to suggest the virus began outside of China, airing theories without evidence linking it to US military personnel, and there has been blanket state media coverage of virus detections on frozen food imports and ice-cream.
WHO's director of the health emergencies programme, Michael Ryan, said it was "highly speculative" to argue that coronavirus came from outside China, and investigations should start where the first confirmed human cases emerged.”
10. Irregular Warfare (IW) - Commentary (Jan 2021) | SOF News
sof.news · by John Friberg · January 20, 2021
11. 'Really quite shocking': Inside the ugly transition at the Pentagon
Politico· January 20, 2021
Not a good look for the Pentagon.
12. 'Are you QAnon?': One Trump official's brush with an internet cult gone horribly wrong
Politico· by Josh Gerstein · January 19, 2021
A study in disinformation and active measures? But by who? This is a fascinating story.
13. SecDef nominee pledges to evaluate information operations
Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · January 20, 2021
We need this done beyond DOD. We need a national level effort to effectively employ this critical national instrument of power.
The Washington Post · by Margaret Sullivan· January 21, 2021
A very interesting and important critique.
Excerpt:
"If you believe that now with Trump gone you can go back to the way things were, you will be complicit in allowing miscreants to avoid the blame and focus they deserve, and create more ground for lies and bombast," wrote Norman Ornstein, an emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, in a powerful Twitter thread.
He's right. By the end of the Trump administration, the national press was doing things differently, and better. More than in the past, some journalists (certainly not all) were standing up for democracy without embarrassment, without fearing they'd be called partisan. Some had figured out how to present an election not as a mere horserace, but as a question about substance, character and the nation's future.
15. Biden is inheriting a nonexistent Covid-19 vaccine plan from Trump administration, sources say
CNN · by MJ Lee
How can this be? A leadership failure on an unprecedented scale if this is accurate.
16. EXC: Biden Just Picked A CIA Director With a 7-Year-Long Relationship with Chinese Communist Party Fronts
Hmmm...This is also an attack on the Carnegie Foundation.
17. EXC: Biden Personnel Chief Served At Chinese Intel Org Flagged By FBI For Recruiting Western Spies
--------------
"Nobody can decide for himself whether he is going to be a human being. The only question open to him is whether he will be an ignorant, undeveloped one or one who has sought to reach the highest point he is capable of attaining."
- Robert M. Hutchins
From T.S. Eliot's essay "The Perfect Critic" for the literary journal Athenaeum in 1920: The vast accumulations of knowledge - or at least of information - deposited by the nineteenth century have been responsible for an equally vast ignorance. When there is so much to be known, when there are so many fields of knowledge in which the same words are used with different meanings, when everyone knows a little about a great many things, it becomes increasingly difficult for anyone to know whether he knows what he is talking about or not. And when we do not know, or when we do not know enough, we tend always to substitute emotions for thoughts.
"The primary purpose of the Rolex is not as a timepiece but rather as a life insurance policy. When the situation goes pear-shaped and you've somehow made it to the airport, the Rolex buys you a seat on the last flight out of Heart of Darkness International Airport. As your aircraft circles the city, you look down at the rising columns of black smoke and imagine the scene downtown in the city square where they're chopping the few remaining Westerners up into monkey meat, you look at your wrist where your treasured timepiece used to be and you think 2 things: A) 'Well I guess the Rolex finally paid for itself,' and B) 'I can always buy another watch ... ' "Unknowndfa
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Biden's speech signals better ties with Seoul, less drama with Pyongyang
2. South Korea's President Moon: 'America Is Back'
3. Moon vows close cooperation with Biden for Korea peace process
4. Foreign Ministry's top priority is talks with Pyongyang
5. Sovereignty and alliance cannot be haggled (Korea)
6. Unification minister vows to restart Korea peace process in cooperation with Biden administration
7. Defense ministry vows push for regular inter-Korean military talks, swifter OPCON transfer
8. Analysts weigh in on Moon-Biden partnership
9. Blinken says U.S. is 'better positioned' to deal with N. Korea when working with allies
10. Moon Sacks Loyal Foreign Minister
11. Blinken indicates changing course in North Korea policy
12. Understanding N. Korean capabilities important part of intelligence: DNI nominee
13. N. Korea tightens antivirus campaign as party congress, military parade end
14. U.S. expert voices skepticism over N.K. push for nuke sub
15. Restrictions on movement in North Korea are causing "severe side effects"
16. North Korea allows some people with relatives overseas to write letters asking for help
17. Seoul to procure enough COVID-19 vaccines for North, South Korea
1. Biden's speech signals better ties with Seoul, less drama with Pyongyang
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 21, 2021
This is quite an interpretation. We should note that President Biden did not mention a single foreign country (that jumped right out to my wife as we watched the speech). South Korean media parses every word (or omitted word) for meaning for and impact on Korea.
2. South Korea's President Moon: 'America Is Back'
Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse
President Moon wins the award for the best tweet by a foreign leader.
We should remember that the only OpEd President Biden wrote in the foreign press during the election process was published by Yonhap and it discussed the ROK/US alliance and the Korean peninsula. That made a statement more than the words in any speech. "Special contribution by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden" https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201030000500325
3. Moon vows close cooperation with Biden for Korea peace process
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · January 21, 2021
Peace at any cost. President Moon is doubling down on his peace vision and working to shape the information environment to influence the Biden administration to support a vision which is based on the false assumption that Kim Jong-un shares his vision and will seek peace on mutually acceptable terms. Kim Jong-un only wants peace on his terms and that means that he dominates the Korean peninsula.
I think President Moon is misguided if he thinks the Biden administration will support concessions and sanctions relief without any substantive action from the regime. But the most important thing for the ROK ?US alliance is to re-examine strategic assumptions and ensure they are sufficiently aligned. They were not sufficiently aligned during the Trump administration and they are not now during the Biden administration.
4. Foreign Ministry's top priority is talks with Pyongyang
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim
The ROK will double down on its peace vision. Peace at any cost.
Excerpt: In the report, the Foreign Ministry outlined its plans to continue diplomatic efforts to realize peace on the Korean Peninsula, play a role as a middle power to bring together countries globally and practice people-centered diplomacy.
5. Sovereignty and alliance cannot be haggled (Korea)
donga.com · January 20, 2021
A critical Oped.
Conclusion:
“Such a nonsensical comment was made because President Moon has not shaken off the illusionary feelings about the summit in Pyongyang three years ago. He said Kim still has a clear willingness for peace, dialogue, and denuclearization. This is why the president gave a naïve answer that all can be resolved when the peace process becomes successful in response to North Korea’s threats to enhance its nuclear capabilities. The efforts for dialogue and military exercises share the same goal. However, the two should go together. If one of them is neglected, it will lead to submission or dissolution.
6. Unification minister vows to restart Korea peace process in cooperation with Biden administration
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 21, 2021
Who is in charge of the "peace process" with north Korea -Foreign Affairs or Unification? Who is in charge of denuclearization negotiations: Foreign Affairs or Unification?
And of course one of the issues in the ROK/US alliance is there is no US counterpart for the Ministry of Unification which makes things complicated when the Minister makes these kinds of statements:
7. Defense ministry vows push for regular inter-Korean military talks, swifter OPCON transfer
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 21, 2021
I wish the press would get this right. There is no OPCON transfer. There is no transfer of OPCON front he US to the ROK. The US does not have OPCON of US forces and when the transition process is complete with a general officer assuming command of the ROK/US CFC the ROK will not have OPCON of US forces. Both governments will provide forces to the ROK/US CFC (should they choose to).and the commander of the ROK/US CFC will answer to both nations through the MIlitary Committee and the Security Consultative process. Both countries have established the ROK/US CFC and have tasked it with the mission to deter north Korean attack and if the north does attack it is charged with the defense of the ROK and the defeat of the nKPA. But as long as the bi-national ROK/US CFC exists it will answer equally to both countries through the Military Committee. So there is no transfer of OPCON from Washington to Seoul.
This is also, why we need a comprehensive information campaign to inform political leaders, pundits, the press, and the public about what is OPCON transition and how it works.
8. Analysts weigh in on Moon-Biden partnership
Another example of the ROK's shaping operation for the Biden Administration. However, these are some interesting statistics among foreign affairs experts:
“However, according to a group of 34 foreign affairs and security experts surveyed by the JoongAng Ilbo, only one responded that the Biden administration could consider partially easing sanctions on North Korea without progress in its denuclearization for the sake of improving inter-Korean relations.
The newspaper surveyed 34 Korean, American, Chinese and Japanese experts from Jan. 11 to 18 to gauge the Biden administration's views on key foreign affairs and security issues and prospects for cooperation with the Moon government.
The Biden administration could consider the lifting of certain sanctions with the dismantlement of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex, as proposed by leader Kim during a Hanoi summit with Trump in February 2019, according to 23.5 percent of the respondents, or eight experts.
The second North-U.S. summit in Hanoi ended with no deal as the two sides clashed over the scope of denuclearization need for sanctions relief, with Trump demanding measures beyond the dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear complex in North Pyongan Province, which could include revealing undisclosed nuclear facilities or a more concrete roadmap for denuclearization.
Likewise, 55.9 percent of the respondents, or 19 experts, said that the Biden administration could consider partial sanctions relief if North Korea agrees to dismantle Yongbyon and more facilities, or commits to a denuclearization roadmap.”
9. Blinken says U.S. is 'better positioned' to deal with N. Korea when working with allies
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 20, 2021
A BFO, but an important BFO (BFO = blinding flash of the obvious).
10. Moon Sacks Loyal Foreign Minister
She has been loyal even if she has not always been as empowered as she might be. Again, this cabinet change is a clear indication that President Moon is doubling down on peace at any cost.
11. Blinken indicates changing course in North Korea policy
The Korea Times· by Kang Seung-woo · January 20, 2021
Assumptions about north Korea. It’s the assumptions, stupid. I am going to beat this horse.
I wonder who at State is working the SMA negotiation. I hope we can put a solid 5 year agreement in place soon.
12. Understanding N. Korean capabilities important part of intelligence: DNI nominee
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 20, 2021
To the press: And INTENT!! We must understand the nature of the Kim family regime and its objectives and strategy in addition to its capabilities.
I am sure your headline editor was limited in space but they should pay attention to what the DNI nominee said: "Understanding the capabilities and intentions of a country like North Korea is a critical responsibility of the intelligence community," Haines said in a written answer to questions from the Senate Intelligence Committee as part of her confirmation hearing
13. N. Korea tightens antivirus campaign as party congress, military parade end
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 20, 2021
They should have been wearing masks for the entire 8th Party Congress.
14. U.S. expert voices skepticism over N.K. push for nuke sub
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 20, 2021
We need to be skeptical but wary. Yes this is complicated technology. But the regime has surprised us with its advances so we should not remain complacent.
15. Restrictions on movement in North Korea are causing "severe side effects"
dailynk.com· by Mun Dong Hoi · January 20, 2021
What will be the short and long term effects of these restrictions? We must be on the lookout of indications of instability.
Excerpt: A source in North Pyongan Province informed Daily NK on Jan. 13 that, “Currently, people who need to travel to do business or to obtain food are absolutely incapable of traveling,” and that “the number of households suffering chronic food shortage has spiked for this reason.”
16. North Korea allows some people with relatives overseas to write letters asking for help
dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · January 21, 2021
I imagine this is an intelligence operation. They will collect information on those communicating with defectors. Of course the letters coming into and going out of north Korea will be examined. If they can gather information on defectors they could target them for intelligence, for cyber attacks, or even for physical attacks.
And then of course if Koreans do receive resources officials will impose heavy "taxes" on the resources received.
This may be the north Korean equivalent of putting a homeless person on a street corner to beg for money. When they receive money corrupt officials will pocket part of it.
17. Seoul to procure enough COVID-19 vaccines for North, South Korea
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · January 21, 2021
Would the regime accept this? Do we think this will influence north Korean behavior? Or will the regime interpret this as another successful line of effort to its blackmail diplomacy?
----------------
"Nobody can decide for himself whether he is going to be a human being. The only question open to him is whether he will be an ignorant, undeveloped one or one who has sought to reach the highest point he is capable of attaining."
- Robert M. Hutchins
From T.S. Eliot’s essay “The Perfect Critic” for the literary journal Athenaeum in 1920: The vast accumulations of knowledge - or at least of information - deposited by the nineteenth century have been responsible for an equally vast ignorance. When there is so much to be known, when there are so many fields of knowledge in which the same words are used with different meanings, when everyone knows a little about a great many things, it becomes increasingly difficult for anyone to know whether he knows what he is talking about or not. And when we do not know, or when we do not know enough, we tend always to substitute emotions for thoughts.
"The primary purpose of the Rolex is not as a timepiece but rather as a life insurance policy. When the situation goes pear-shaped and you've somehow made it to the airport, the Rolex buys you a seat on the last flight out of Heart of Darkness International Airport. As your aircraft circles the city, you look down at the rising columns of black smoke and imagine the scene downtown in the city square where they're chopping the few remaining Westerners up into monkey meat, you look at your wrist where your treasured timepiece used to be and you think 2 things: A) 'Well I guess the Rolex finally paid for itself,' and B) 'I can always buy another watch ... ’ "UnknownDave
https://sof.news/defense/iw/
A rollup of recent discussions about Irregular Warfare in the context of the Irregular Warfare annex to the 2018 National Defense Strategy.
Full Report: https://ctc.usma.edu/the-terrorist-lists-an-examination-of-the-u-s-governments-counterterrorism-designations-efforts/
By Seth Loertscher, Daniel Milton, Bryan Price, Cynthia Loertscher
From September 2020, but especially relevant with the recent decision to designate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-iran-cuba-diplomacy-china-93528aaaab4014ab527609da527e93db
This report examines two sanctioning efforts the U.S. government has employed against terrorist actors: the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list and the designation of individuals as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) under the authority granted by Executive Order 13224. Although the specific purposes of each of these programs differ from one another, ultimately both represent a non-kinetic approach to counterterrorism that relies on the application of diplomatic and/or financial statecraft.
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Moon is incapable of change
2. See the weapons at North Korea’s latest military parade
3. Biden's team may roll back rapprochement with Pyongyang
4. Outgoing U.S. envoy warns about Pyongyang
5. Exclusive: Daily NK obtains materials explaining specifics of new "anti-reactionary thought" law
6. South Korea seeks early Biden summit to revive talks with Kim
7. S. Korea ready to talk any issues with N. Korea to ease tensions: defense ministry
8. N.K. leader urges devotion from newly elected members of Cabinet, ruling party
9. Moon meets Amb. Harris, vows close cooperation with Biden administration
10. 31 USFK-linked people test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in S. Korea
11. North Korea’s Kim could be planning missile launch to welcome Biden administration
12. Japan urges South Korea to drop wartime compensation demands
13. Moon says history-related issues should be viewed independently
14. New infection cases under 400 for 2nd day; virus curve sliding downhill
15. Biden can make progress where Trump failed on North Korea
16. This is why Samsung head Lee Jae Yong has been jailed and what it means for the tech giant
1. Moon is incapable of change
Chosun Ilbo · January 19, 2021
A very critical OpEd criticizing Moon on a number of issues. But it is his view of (and strategic assumptions about) North Korea and Kim Jong-un that is most troubling and that will potentially cause problems for the ROK/US alliance. If the US and the ROK cannot sufficiently align our strategic assumptions about North Korea, we are going to have a lot of friction in the alliance. And I think his assumptions about the Biden administration possibly providing sanctions relief in return talks illustrates a misunderstanding that will be harmful.
2. See the weapons at North Korea’s latest military parade
Defense News · Mike Yeo & Kim Tong-Hyung · January 15, 2021
Some useful photos.
3. Biden’s team may roll back rapprochement with Pyongyang
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · January 19, 2021
A common theme among the Korean press is that members of the Biden national security team are expected to take a harder line toward North Korean than they did during the Clinton and Obama administrations. President Moon seems not to have recognized this.
The US and ROK may not be in step. This is why the first order of business for the alliance is to work on strategic alignment toward Kim Jong-un and North Korea.
4. Outgoing U.S. envoy warns about Pyongyang
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · January 19, 2021
The ambassador is conducting diplomacy up until the last days at post to include supporting the incoming administration. He may be a political appointee, but he is not a politico.
5. Exclusive: Daily NK obtains materials explaining specifics of new "anti-reactionary thought" law
Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · January 19, 2021
I hate to beat a dead horse (or, in this case, more than one horse). Two important points:
First, this is another indication of how much the regime fears the Korean people living in the North. The regime fears them more than the US. It must exert extreme control over the population. There must be the systematic denial of human rights because that is critical to keeping Kim Jong-Un in power.
Second, this illustrates the importance of information (and information control) in North Korea. As disjointed and unsynchronized as the information and influence activities of the ROK and US might be, information does have an effect inside North Korea and the regime is deathly afraid of it. Just imagine the effects we could achieve with a comprehensive information and influence activities strategy.
6. South Korea seeks early Biden summit to revive talks with Kim
Bloomberg · Jeong-Ho Lee · January 18, 2021
When I first saw the headline, I thought it was Moon advocating for an early Biden-Kim summit, but he is talking about a Moon-Biden summit. However, I would refrain from having a summit until the MOFA-State strategy working group works out a strategic alignment on key issues regarding North Korea to include the fundamental assumptions about the nature and strategy of Kim Jong-Un upon which alliance policy direction and strategy should be developed.
7. S. Korea ready to talk any issues with N. Korea to ease tensions: defense ministry
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · January 19, 2021
South Korea must be cautious with these types of statements. If it discusses ROK/US alliance related issues with the north without prior consultation and coordination with the US, it will continue to generate friction within the alliance.
8. N.K. leader urges devotion from newly elected members of Cabinet, ruling party
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 19, 2021
9. Moon meets Amb. Harris, vows close cooperation with Biden administration
Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · January 19, 2021
I hope Moon means what he says (I am sure he does on his terms). But again, if we cannot achieve sufficient alignment on strategic issues and assumptions about the North, we are going to have problems.
Nothing like having a "Soju experience." With COVID we cannot drink Soju in the traditional way with the exchange of glasses (unless Soju can kill the COVID virus).
10. 31 USFK-linked people test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in S. Korea
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · January 19, 2021
11. North Korea’s Kim could be planning missile launch to welcome Biden administration
Washington Post · Simon Denyer & Joby Warrick · January 18, 2021
Maybe. Or maybe not. Key point - no conclusive evidence, but a launch would be in keeping with the pattern of the Kim family regime.
12. Japan urges South Korea to drop wartime compensation demands
Associated Press · Mari Yamaguchi · January 18, 2021
The Moon administration cannot overrule the courts.
13. Moon says history-related issues should be viewed independently
Dong-A Ilbo · Ji-Sun Choi · January 19, 2021
Moon and Suga must pledge to place national security and national prosperity first and to manage the historical issues without impacting on the priorities.
14. New infection cases under 400 for 2nd day; virus curve sliding downhill
Yonhap News Agency · 이민지 · January 19, 2021
15. Biden can make progress where Trump failed on North Korea
National Interest · Matt Abbott · January 18, 2021
Close but no cigar. Solving the "Korea question" must be the long term goal and it must be understood that there will be no end to the nuclear threat and the human rights abuses until the Korea question is resolved, achieving the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will sustain, protect, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests: a secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). This is the long-term objective. Now, let's begin the backward planning to achieve that. Of course, one issue is the US cannot want this more than South Korea.
16. This is why Samsung head Lee Jae Yong has been jailed and what it means for the tech giant
Scotsman · Matt Brooks · January 18, 2021
And Moon has no love for Samsung.
“Science investigates; religion interprets. Science gives man knowledge, which is power; religion gives man wisdom, which is control. Science deals mainly with facts; religion deals mainly with values. The two are not rivals.”
- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
"The character of a President colors his entire administration."
- Clark Clifford
"The presidency is not merely an administrative office....It is pre-eminently a place of moral leadership."
- Franklin D. Roosevelt
