Small Wars Journal

Allies and Influence

Mon, 10/30/2017 - 6:03pm

Allies and Influence by Jon B. Alterman – Center For Strategic & International Studies

There isn’t a number system in the world in which three is greater than 73. And yet, in Syria, an alliance of three governments has run circles around an alliance of 73, imposing its order on a violent and chaotic situation.

It is tempting to see the whole episode as a sign that alliances are overrated, and that going forward, the United States should worry less about having the world on its side. But if the conflict in Syria teaches us anything, it is that the United States needs to put more energy into building its alliances, since the world we will face after Syria will require them even more.

While the avowed U.S. goal in Syria was to defeat the Islamic State group (ISG) and not fight Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the two were always related. Assad nurtured the rise of the ISG and harshly repressed peaceful elements of the Syrian opposition. He believed, apparently, that his best hope for survival lay in fighting a foe even more unpalatable to the world than he was. The United States hoped to find a way to dispense with both, believing that Assad’s brutality would only nurture more Islamist extremism. It built a mighty coalition—first 60, then 65, and now 73—to fight the ISG, and it covertly supported a collection of forces intended to create a non-radical Syrian opposition.

But the United States was half-hearted in its Syrian ambitions, and it came up against determined opposition, not just from Assad’s government, but from Iran and Russia as well. The three shared a distrust of insurgent publics, and they saw the United States and its allies as enemies of their interests. In their way of thinking, Syria’s repression was perhaps regrettable but certainly necessary. The alternatives—a Syria controlled by radical forces or a Sunni-led pro-American foothold in the region—were completely unpalatable.

While these three countries share interests, they are allies of convenience. With few shared values and no broader vision, they are united by what they want to prevent, not what they want to create…

Read on.