Southern Sudan – the Four Theses
Southern Sudan – the Four Theses
by Thomas Talley
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On January 9th, 2011, in accordance with the terms of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between the Government of the Republic of Sudan and the secessionist Sudan People’s Liberation Army/ Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, the citizens of southern Sudan are to vote in a referendum to determine the future status of Southern Sudan: either union with the rest of Sudan or independence. The issue is not the outcome – most observers acknowledge the vote will be overwhelmingly in favor of independence. What is at issue is whether or not the outcome will be respected: will Sudan experience a fair and amicable divorce, or will there be war. Given that the last war left around two million dead and four million displaced, and that a new round of fighting is also likely to impact most of the nine countries bordering Sudan, this is hardly an academic debate.
This paper is not about the likelihood of war in Southern Sudan — it is about the likelihood of U.S. involvement in a war in Southern Sudan. As with many other interested observers, I have been following the development of Southern Sudan’s upcoming referendum with great interest, and increasingly, with a degree of alarm. This paper intends to be predictive — by discussing the three elements that I believe to be missing from the current discussions and analysis, I intend to show where the official U.S. policy (COA 1) is leading us. Accordingly, this paper will not elaborate further on the other two courses of action. Stated another way, this paper will discuss what will be, whereas the other courses of action offer insight into what could be, or even what should be. Those discussions are conversations for a different audience.
Download the Full Article: Southern Sudan – the Four Theses
Thomas Talley, Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army, is a Strategic Plans and Policy Officer (Functional Area 59), currently assigned to U.S. Africa Command. Through the course of his career, he has served as an Infantry Officer, Ordnance (maintenance) Officer, and a Civil Affairs Officer. He has deployed twice in support of OIF, and once in support of OEF. The first OIF deployment, in 2003, was in support of SOCCENT/CFSOCC. The second OIF deployment, in 2007, was as a Team Leader for a Transition Team working with an Iraqi National Police Battalion. His OEF deployment was to CJTF-HOA, in 2005, where he served as the Deputy Future Operations Officer. LTC Talley has a Masters of Science in International Relations from Troy University, and a Masters of Military Art and Science from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College.
