11/24/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Prolonged silence: North Korea seems troubled with how to cope with the incoming US administration
2. Treasury sanctions companies exporting North Korean labor to Russia
3. Joe Biden’s Korea strategy needs to be grounded in reality
4. North Korea: how Joe Biden could reset negotiations
5. US military reports more than 50 new coronavirus patients in Japan and South Korea
6. Joe Biden should learn from history when dealing with North Korea
7. Biden’s mission: unite Japan and South Korea
8. Report: North Korean defector who vaulted over DMZ fence is former gymnast
9. Covid-19 unleashes new wave of North Korean refugees
10. North Korean students shot for sex abuse, report says
11. Covid-19 vaccine research in India, abroad bombarded by North Korean, Russian hackers
12. N. Korea publishes picture album featuring weapons under leader Kim Jong-un
13. North Koreans ‘will pay with their lives’ after forest fire that threatened base
14. Biden’s pick for top diplomat expected to look to Iran formula for N.K. denuke
15. Revision to Enterprise Act strengthens government control over private businesses
16. Unification minister’s inter-Korean illusion and outdated behaviors
17. Bridging the divide in the U.S.-South Korea alliance
18. Chinese FM visits Korea this week
19. Elderly mother of North Korean official dies after he kicks her out of his home
20. Why North Korea could not implement the Chinese style reform and opening? The internal contradiction between economic reform and political stability
21. Competing in the Pacific: a conversation with U.S. Army Chief of Staff General James C. McConville
1. Prolonged silence: North Korea seems troubled with how to cope with the incoming US administration
Korea Herald · November 22, 2020
Perhaps both Kim and Biden will be dealing with the same crisis: COVID-19?
2. Treasury sanctions companies exporting North Korean labor to Russia
FDD · Mathew Ha · November 23, 2020
The latest from my colleague, Mathew Ha.
3. Joe Biden’s Korea strategy needs to be grounded in reality
National Interest · Doug Bandow · November 23, 2020
Reality?
Here is the reality. Assisting in the defense South Korea is secondary to the main US interest: deterring war on the Korean peninsula. And we know from history, analysis, and high-ranking defectors (e.g Hwang Jong-yop) that it is the presence of US forces that deters the Kim family regime. If we remove troops. there will be conflict on the Korea peninsula. Such a conflict will be catastrophic in the region but will have severe global effects.
It is a pipe dream to think that the nuclear umbrella and air and sea-based power is sufficient for deterrence when we know it is the presence of US troops that serves as the deterrent. Basing deterrence offshore may as well be called the new Acheson strategy. It is a recipe for conflict.
And the argument of trading an American city for Seoul is ludicrous. Removing US troops from the peninsula will in no way deter or prevent Kim from deciding to launch an ICBM against the US. And it is a fool’s errand to think we can trade US troops for denuclearization. In fact, it will only reinforce the idea that Kim can attack the South and his nuclear armed ICBM will deter us returning to assist in the defense of the South.
Reality? We should remember this reality: this is why we describe the Kim family regime as a mafia-like crime family cult that employs a political warfare strategy based on subversion, coercion/extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and someday when the alliance is split, the use of force to dominate the peninsula. The proposals in this article will lead to a splitting of the alliance and then war on the Korean peninsula.
4. North Korea: how Joe Biden could reset negotiations
National Interest · Seong-Chang Cheong · November 23, 2020
Certainly, some out of the box thinking – VP-Elect Harris negotiating with Kim Yo-Jong or Choe Ryong-Hae?
Paradoxically, the brighter future we have offered and the economic engagement proposed by South Korea are also threats to the survival of the regime because such a future and engagement will lead to opening, information, and undermining the legitimacy of the regime.
5. US military reports more than 50 new coronavirus patients in Japan and South Korea
Stars & Stripes · Joseph Ditzler & Aya Ichihashi · November 23, 2020
6. Joe Biden should learn from history when dealing with North Korea
National Interest · Hazel Smith · November 23, 2020
Yes, we should learn from history. But we also need to be careful with our assumptions. I also agree that the regime is “knowable” and is not irrational.
I think it is an erroneous assumption that the Kim family regime wants security guarantees so that it can live in peace. Yes, survival of the regime is paramount, but there are two things to consider. First, the regime will never trust any US or South Korean or international community security guarantees. Second, the regime believes it will only attain the security necessary for survival of the regime is if it dominates the Korean peninsula and brings it under the total rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
This analysis just does not go far enough and to work from the assumptions here will not lead to denuclearization. The regime is just not going to trade nuclear weapons for security guarantees.
7. Biden’s mission: unite Japan and South Korea
Asia Times · Daniel Sneider · November 24, 2020
A worthy and important objective. Is it possible? I will settle for at least amicable relations and a commitment by both leaders of Korea and Japan to place national security and national prosperity ahead of historical issues.
8. Report: North Korean defector who vaulted over DMZ fence is former gymnast
UPI · Elizabeth Shim · November 23, 2020
A gymnast? The South Barrier Fence of the DMZ is pretty high. He must be very good. And we should learn that technology is insufficient to prevent infiltration. You need aggressive patrolling, which is manpower intensive.
9. Covid-19 unleashes new wave of North Korean refugees
Asia Times · Bertil Lintner · November 23, 2020
10. North Korean students shot for sex abuse, report says
Asia Times · Bradley K. Martin · November 24, 2020
More insights into the nature of the Kim family regime as well as the elites.
11. Covid-19 vaccine research in India, abroad bombarded by North Korean, Russian hackers
News 18 · Shouvik Das · November 24, 2020
No surprise.
12. N. Korea publishes picture album featuring weapons under leader Kim Jong-un
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 24, 2020
Coincidence? USFK decides not to publish the UNC/CFC/USFK Strategic Digest this year.
13. North Koreans ‘will pay with their lives’ after forest fire that threatened base
Mirror · Michael Havis · November 24, 2020
More insights into the nature of the Kim family regime.
I wonder what our ISR observes regarding the effects of the fire.
14. Biden’s pick for top diplomat expected to look to Iran formula for N.K. denuke
Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · November 24, 2020
North Korea is not Iran and I am sure Mr. Blinken knows that fact.
15. Revision to Enterprise Act strengthens government control over private businesses
Daily NK · Jang Seun Gi · November 24, 2020
Further crackdowns on (relatively) “free enterprise” and nascent capitalism. These are measures to allow the regime to tighten control over every aspect of the economy and this the people.
16. Unification minister’s inter-Korean illusion and outdated behaviors
Dong-A Ilbo · November 24, 2020
I cannot beat this drum enough. The Moon administration needs to reexamine its fundamental assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategies and objectives. The incoming Biden administration should use the MOFA-State strategy working group to assess assumptions and develop and alliance approach to strategy toward North Korea.
17. Bridging the divide in the U.S.-South Korea alliance
Center for American Progress · Michael Fuchs & Haneul Lee · November 23, 2020
A progressive analysis of the alliance that concludes with a call for cooperation among progressives in both countries
18. Chinese FM visits Korea this week
Chosun Ilbo · Kim Eun-joong · November 24, 2020
19. Elderly mother of North Korean official dies after he kicks her out of his home
Radio Free Asia · Hyemin Son, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · November 24, 2020
More on the nature of the Kim family regime and its party officials.
20. Why North Korea could not implement the Chinese style reform and opening? The internal contradiction between economic reform and political stability
SAGE Journals · Sungmin Cho · November 6, 2020
From our good friend Sungmin Cho, former ROK Army intelligence officer, Georgetown PhD, and now professor at APCSS in Hawaii.
He answers the age-old question in the title. I do not know how many times I have heard the question, why doesn’t North Korea just open up and reform like China?
21. Competing in the Pacific: a conversation with U.S. Army Chief of Staff General James C. McConville
FDD · Clifford D. May · November 19, 2020
The CSA provides detailed insights throughout the INDOPACIFIC to include from his recent visit to Korea and Indonesia.
Unfortunately, I do not think the Romiania analogy is going to work with the South Koreans.
“The mind of the enemy and the will of his leaders is a target of far more importance than the bodies of his troops.”
– Mao Zedong
“If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.”
– Sun Tzu
“War is getting sneakier. War is going underground. And we have to go underground with it. We have to fight in the shadows. Otherwise, we will be left behind.”
– Sean McFate
