Top Photo: Littoral Combat Ship USS Canberra (LCS 30) in Persian Gulf, photo posted by US Central Command on X, 18 April 2026.

Executive Summary

The ceasefire talks a week ago did not yield an agreement; but some progress was made on some points. Another talk session could take place soon. Israel and Lebanon held talks as well, a very rare event, with the result of a ten-day ceasefire. On Saturday, the Iranian navy told ships over radio that the Strait of Hormuz is now shut down again. There are effectively two separate blockades of the Strait of Hormuz; one by Iran and the other by the U.S. According to U.S. intelligence and military officials Iran still maintains the ability to attack Gulf states and U.S. interests and bases in the region.

Key Developments

• Iraqi militias are probably responsible for some of the drone attacks against Gulf states.
• European countries may have a plan to clear mines from Strait of Hormuz.
• Two Avenger class mine-hunters have departed Japan and are deploying to the Middle East.
• On Friday, April 17, 2026, Iran said it has “reopened” the strait; but then on Saturday closed it again.
• Iranian Sepah (IRGC) Navy opened fire on an Indian-flagged vessel.
• U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues.
• Iran retains significant residual missile and drone capability.
• Economic effects expanding beyond energy markets into aviation and fertilizer supply chains.
• Ceasefire ends on April 21, Pakistan working new talks.