DW News | Ukraine’s Quiet Push – The Success Ukraine Doesn’t Want To Talk About
“Ukraine’s Quiet Push — The Success Ukraine Doesn’t Want to Talk About,” a DW News video report featuring an extended on-the-record interview with DW’s longtime Kyiv correspondent Nick Connolly, provides an assessment of several underreported Ukrainian operational successes in early 2025. Ukrainian forces have conducted an escalating campaign of long-range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and Baltic port infrastructure, deploying larger warheads that have amplified economic disruption and complicated Russia’s ability to monetize elevated global oil prices—though Ukrainian commanders now face Western political pressure to curtail those attacks.
Ukrainian forces have also “quietly” recaptured hundreds of square kilometers in the Zaporizhzhia sector, surpassing the territorial gains of the much-publicized 2023 counteroffensive, but have deliberately suppressed public messaging about these advances to avoid the credibility damage from overpromising two years prior. SpaceX’s February 2025 decision to terminate unauthorized Russian access to Starlink degraded Russian drone operations and command-and-control links, opening tactical windows that Ukrainian units exploited along the southern front before Russia began fielding improvised antenna alternatives. Russia’s spring offensive has produced negligible territorial returns at extraordinary human cost, with combined killed and wounded estimated in the hundreds of thousands, and Connolly assesses that, absent a collapse in Western financial support, a withdrawal of intelligence sharing, or an unexpected internal rupture within Russia itself, no near-term end to the conflict is plausible.
Ukraine Battlefield Map, January 2026 (Source: CSIS)
Two recent pieces highlighted at the SWJ Discourse corroborate the operational and strategic assessments Connolly offers in the DW News interview. “Russia’s Spring Offensive Begins Against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt: ISW,” directly validates Connolly’s on-the-ground reporting that Russia’s spring push has stalled at enormous human cost: ISW data cited in the piece documents Russian casualty rates roughly doubling in the week preceding publication, with a single March 19 assault producing approximately 405 casualties from a committed force of around 500 personnel, reinforcing Connolly’s portrait of a Russian military absorbing catastrophic losses for negligible tactical returns.
“CSIS Report | Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine: Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power,” provides the granular attrition data that gives Connolly’s casualty estimates institutional backing: CSIS calculates nearly 1.2 million total Russian battlefield casualties since February 2022—including roughly 415,000 in 2025 alone—and documents Russian advance rates of between 15 and 70 meters per day, slower than virtually any major offensive campaign recorded in the past century.
Both SWJ Discourse summaries also reinforce Connolly’s conclusion that the conflict shows no sign of near-term resolution, as Russia continues to absorb losses without achieving the operational breakthroughs required to compel meaningful concessions from Kyiv, while Ukraine retains the defensive coherence and asymmetric capabilities needed to prevent Moscow from dictating terms at the negotiating table.
