The Iran War and Latin America: What To Make of It
Evan Ellis writes in his United Press International piece, “Strategic implications of the war in Iran for Latin America,” that Latin America will come away from the Iran war more divided and under greater duress than before. Divided, he forecasts, as countries will take sides over the U.S. role while remaining compliant with Washington in the context of its stronger global posture. Under duress, since Latin America is particularly sensitive to rising oil costs and the sociopolitical fallout that can unleash.
What happens after could be a rollercoaster
If the war in Iran replaces the current regime with a weaker and more compliant one that yet resembles the former– the most likely outcome– the knock effects in Latin America will stem from an emboldened Trump administration. Washington would likely renew its attention to destabilizing its traditional foes and supporting its ideological allies in the region. What happens in the American 2026 midterms will dictate the intensity of this focus in the final two years of Trump’s term.
Implications
Latin America finds itself in a funny position. Broadly, it faces almost certain near-term economic pain and resulting political pressure. Some countries will align with the U.S. strategy in Iran; others will take a stand. Yet more governments are “disposed to work with Washington” than in decades.
We are left wondering: is this an example of America First working? Or is it an unintended consequence of a helter-skelter American security strategy?
