Replacing Khamenei: Altruism Over Oil
Israel and the United States have successfully carried out air strikes against Iran which have led to the death of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This is a huge victory for not just such powers but also for the Iranian people, most of whom have long been weary of the fundamentalist regime. However, how does Iran move forward in the wake?
A tempting solution for U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel might be to simply have a reformist (still a fundamentalist) assume leadership. Someone like Ayatollah Hassan Rohani might seem ideal. Rohani is more pragmatic than the hardliners like Khamanei. Rohani is willing to allow trade with the West. This would open up Iran to foreign companies and would be a boon for countries like the U.S. who can benefit from this untapped market of over ninety million people. The Iranian people would benefit because with trade comes prosperity and jobs. The Iranian people have been highly educated and underemployed for the past forty-seven years. A deal with Rohani can change this. A more open market Iran means economic growth in an economy that has long been in a free fall. Rohani has significant support among fundamentalists and would be seen as legitimate by the regime. Rohani as a successor for Khamanei means that the country could escape the devastating effects that a civil war which will likely come without a clear successor and would not go through the struggles of establishing a new type of government.
At first blush this would then seem like an ideal solution. However, the majority of Iranian people would be the losers in this equation because they would still be under a system of government that they no longer endorse and lack the means by which to bring about change. In this scenario the fundamentalist regime will be given new life and because of the economic prosperity the open market will bring to the U.S. and Iran it is highly unlikely that the U.S. would intervene again. This is a one-time opportunity to bring about meaningful change in Iran, to truly assist the Iranian people in their fight for liberation.
As tempting as it might be to settle for another Venezuelan solution and opt for a leader that is beneficial to the U.S., it is essential that the U.S. and Israel think long term and beyond their short term economic gain and instead think of the people of Iran. This is an opportunity for the U.S. to correct a mistake from more than seventy years ago when the U.S. and British Intelligence overthrew the democratically elected leader in Iran, Mohammad Mossadegh. Iran is not Iraq. Iran has a history of democracy and a desire for democracy rather than a semblance of it.
With the removal of Khamenei, there is an easy solution which would quell any civil conflict in Iran – Rohani, but this easy solution would just be a new version of the same old thing a sort of fundamentalism 2.0 so to speak. Trump has an opportunity to go down in history as one of the greatest presidents by not taking the easy road and by instead making sure that the Iranian people are able to establish a provisional government and hold free fair elections.
Many Americans have felt that the war in Iraq and the removal of Maduro in Venezuela were prompted by the U.S.’ thirst for oil. If the current regime in Iran remains in power with the main concession being that trade opens between Iran and the West, it is likely that the war with Iran will be perceived the same way, as just another attempt by the U.S. to capitalize on oil rich nations. Whereas, aiding an oppressed people and championing democracy is much more altruistic and might actually give Trump a shot at the much-coveted Nobel Peace Prize.
