Exaggeration and Ignorance: The “Scramble for the Arctic”

The “scramble for the Arctic” would be a story of “high farce” rather than “high North” but for the current United States (U.S.) administration threatening to forcibly annex Greenland, the territory of NATO ally Denmark. U.S. President Donald Trump claims that the island is ‘covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place’ and that the U.S. must ‘own’ Greenland to prevent imagined Russian or Chinese ownership. Republican Senator Randy Fine recently introduced a Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act that would authorize the White House to annex Greenland ‘by any means necessary’, citing Rare Earth Elements (REEs) as a key reason. This act ignores the wishes of Greenlanders and is a gross assault on Denmark, NATO, and Europe.

China in Greenland

There are no Chinese mining operations in Greenland. There never have been and it is unlikely there ever would be except in partnership with other Western companies.

No Chinese warship has ever visited Greenland. There is no evidence that a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) nuclear submarine has ever deployed to Greenland’s waters and at present there are no commercial Chinese ships near Greenland (MarineTraffic). Furthermore, there are no Chinese mining operations in Greenland. There never have been and it is unlikely there ever would be except in partnership with other Western companies. From 2011 to 2018, China expressed interest in mining and infrastructure projects but did not commit to anything. Chinese company Shenghe Resources currently has a 10.5% stake in the Kvanefjeld rare earths project, led by the Australian company Energy Transition Minerals. However, this project was halted in 2021 over uranium contamination fears and a lawsuit for $11.4 billion in damages. It is unlikely this project will proceed.

Russia in Greenland

The Northern Fleet surface fleet rests on three modern frigates – only one of which ever sails at a time – and Russian Naval Aviation is moribund and reliant on a small number of airworthy Soviet-era aircraft.

No Russian warship has ever visited Greenland or ever will; Greenland is unmistakably NATO territory.

The Northern Fleet surface fleet rests on three modern frigates – only one of which ever sails at a time – and Russian Naval Aviation is moribund and reliant on a small number of airworthy Soviet-era aircraft. Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet is just now leaving behind the troubled 90s with the commissioning of Yasen-M and Borei-A class boats. The old Soviet nuclear boats were a menace to everyone and multiple Western countries provided extensive financial and technical assistance to decommission them. The Northern Fleet’s best conventional capabilities are their Kinzhal and Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, munitions which Putin is inordinately proud of. However, Ukrainian air defenders have proved Russian hypersonic missiles can, in fact, be downed.

Northern Fleet naval towns and bases on the Kola Peninsula are dilapidated and in decline, something long known by U.S. intelligence. Just this New Year, districts in Severomorsk – populated almost entirely by naval families or contractors – woke up without heat or electricity in -30 C° If you conversed with a sailor of the Northern Fleet, they would likely be much less focused on competition in the Arctic and inclined to gripe about the post-Soviet squalor and humiliation in their daily lives.

When a threat truly existed in the Arctic. NATO monitored between 130-140 Northern Fleet Russian submarines. Today, as many as two nuclear submarines may be on patrol. Source: United States Department of Defense, Soviet Military Power series, published annually 1980s.

There are no Russian commercial ships in Greenland’s waters either at this moment. The absolute and urgent priority for Russian commercial shipping currently is its ‘shadow fleet’ and associated oil and gas exports, not Greenland.

There are no Russian mining operations in Greenland. There never have been and never will be. Russian mining is in crisis: high interest rates, under-investment, sanctions, Chinese competition, and low commodity prices have crippled the Russian mining sector. Russian Railways – the prime carrier – is now on the verge of collapse with over 4 trillion rubles in debt (equivalent to the entire remaining liquid assets of Russia’s National Wealth Fund or one third of Russia’s exploded defense budget). Russian Railways’ bankruptcy intersects with three other key and similarly failing industries: coal, metallurgy, and construction.

Mining in Greenland

Greenland has two active mines. The White Mountain Anorthosite Mine is the only year-round mine in Greenland and has yet to turn a profit. There is also the smaller and actively explored Nalunaq Gold mine that turns a profit. For context, there are over 12,000 operational mines globally. Anorthosite’s primary use is in fiberglass production; none of its other uses have strategic value to the United States.

The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project in southern Greenland is scheduled to open a pilot plant in the near future. New York-based Critical Metals purchased this project following U.S. lobbying. However, despite the size of the site, there is skepticism the project will achieve commercial production. If it does, China will likely join the value chain anyway. Obsession with ‘owning’ Greenland and imagined mining riches misses the point: China dominates 90% of REE processing capacity globally, with our without Greenland.

The Greenland ‘El Dorado’ and the Arctic Sea Routes

Since 1798 – a period of 228 years – only nine mines have operated.

Mark Twain once quipped “a mine is a hole owned by a liar”. In total, there have been around 250 companies in Greenland granted over 700 exploration licenses. Though seemingly high, the numbers are misleading. Since 1798 – a period of 228 years – only nine mines have operated. The overwhelming majority of explorations and licenses have been abandoned. On average, it takes about 16 years to open a mine, information freely available to anyone with an interest in mining opportunities in Greenland at the Greenland Mineral Resources Portal. Chinese and Russian companies do not need to crawl ‘all over the place’; they can log on like anyone else.

A similar misconception surrounds sea routes near Greenland. The Arctic Sea routes are not ‘opening up’. This is a myth repeated every year by lobby groups and vested interests blithely ignoring inconvenient facts. Last year, just 41 vessels completed the full transit of the Northern Sea Route in the narrow summer window; for comparison, around 165,000 vessels transit the English Channel annually.

Conclusion

The real reasons for U.S. threats towards Greenland lie elsewhere. The government of Greenland sets high regulatory standards, prioritizes environmental concerns, and plans appropriately for climate change. The current U.S. administration holds all three of these policies in contempt and supports lobbying groups funded by extremely wealthy individuals. They describe climate change as a ‘con job’ and their attitude towards regulation and the environment is best summarized by the macho phrase ‘drill baby drill’; President Trump implied as much in a weekend interview with The New York Times. When asked why he did not simply deploy more troops to Greenland – something the United States can do under current treaty arrangements – he replied: “I think that ownership gives you a thing that you can’t do, whether you’re talking about a lease or a treaty”. If America forcibly seized the island, the concerns of Greenlanders could be swept aside and the drill would rule (but not discover El Dorado).