VIDEO: The Study of Internal Conflict | GNSI Research Initiative

In this second installment in the Future of Warfare series, Robert S. Burrell, PhD, a Senior Research Fellow at the Global and National Security Institute, sits down with a retired U.S. Army War College professor, Chris Mason, PhD. Their discussion was a live webinar that centered around the Study of Internal Conflict (SOIC), a study which applies statistical analyses to more than 50 military, political, economic, social, cultural and geographical factors to help determine why governments fail in insurgencies and civil wars. Drawing on 53 of the largest internal conflicts since 1945, Mason breaks down the five factors that correlate with government defeat —insights that have significant implications for military doctrine, foreign policy, and conflict prevention. The study grew out of Mason’s experience while working in Afghanistan while at the State Department. As the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq progressed, he noticed similarities with the Vietnam War, prompting data-driven investigation into the causes of government failure in internal conflict. As modern conflicts, such as the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, continue to evolve, findings from the SOIC offer a data-backed framework to help understand a government’s success of failure. The Study of Internal Conflict can now be accessed on the GNSI website here.

STUDY OF INTERNAL CONFLICT SCHOLARSHIP

“Study of Internal Conflict (SOIC) began in 2014 as a research project at the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College to determine the root causes of government defeat in internal conflict since World War 2. Within defined parameters, the study applied regression analysis to more than 50 military, political, economic, social, cultural and geographical factors in the 53 largest internal conflicts since 1945 to determine which factors correlate with government failure in at least 90 percent of all internal conflicts.

Five factors were identified, at least one of which was present in virtually every government defeat:

1. Less than 85 percent of the total population expressing a national identity;
2. Less than 85 percent government legitimacy;
3. Less than 85 percent of population being fully isolated from contact with the rebel group;
4. The existence of persistent external sanctuary for the rebel group; and/or
5. The lack of sustainable, pre-existing security forces under the control of the government at the outset of the conflict.

SOIC also found that in none of the cases analyzed did counterinsurgency methods such as “reconstruction,” “pacification” and “clear, hold and build” ever increase popular support for the government or grow legitimacy in any quantifiable degree. In 2025, the U.S. Army War College agreed for the continuance of SOIC studies at USF. Research associated with SOIC currently continues under the leadership of its designated Non-Resident Senior Fellow – Dr. Chris Mason. All USF faculty and students are eligible to participate in SOIC scholarship, with possible publishing opportunities.

The individual case studies are organized by region, which you can see in the navigation menu.

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