How China Might Coerce Taiwan | Lawfare Daily
Lawfare Daily: How China Might Coerce Taiwan
Daniel Byman, Evan Braden Montgomery, Toshi Yoshihara, and Jen Patja
Thursday, May 15, 2025, 7:00 AM
“For today’s episode, Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman talked with Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, both Senior Fellows at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, to discuss their recent Lawfare article, “Beijing’s Changing Invasion Calculus: How China Might Put Taiwan in its Crosshairs.”
Together they discuss how China might use a blockade, subversion, and nuclear threats to intimidate Taiwan, the United States, and key regional states like Japan. They also discuss how Taipei and Washington might change their approach to reduce the risk of Taiwanese coercion.”
Visit Lawfare Daily for a transcript of this insightful talk.
Featuring:
- Daniel Byman | @dbyman | Read More
- Daniel Byman is a professor at Georgetown University, Lawfare’s Foreign Policy Essay editor, and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
- Evan Braden Montgomery | Read More
- Evan Braden Montgomery is the director of research and studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
- Toshi Yoshihara | Read More
- Toshi Yoshihara is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
- Jen Patja | Read More
- Jen Patja is the editor and producer of the Lawfare Podcast and Rational Security. She currently serves as the Co-Executive Director of Virginia Civics, a nonprofit organization that empowers the next generation of leaders in Virginia by promoting constitutional literacy, critical thinking, and civic engagement. She is the former Deputy Director of the Robert H. Smith Center for the Constitution at James Madison’s Montpelier and has been a freelance editor for over 20 years.
In this insightful podcast episode, Toshi Yoshihara and Evan Braden Montgomery discuss China’s approach to pressuring Taiwan. The speakers illustrate how China has developed a multi-layered coercive strategy targeting three key capitals- Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington D.C.
3 Cities, 1 Strategy
The three city centers—Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington D.C.—represent critical nodes in a complex geopolitical pressure strategy. They each serve a unique and interconnected role in potential Chinese coercion efforts.
Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, is the primary target of psychological and strategic manipulation. As the epicenter of political decision-making, Taipei becomes vulnerable to internal subversion strategies. The goal is to create political fragmentation, undermine national confidence, and generate internal doubt about Taiwan’s ability to resist potential Chinese pressure. By targeting political parties, military leadership, and societal institutions, the strategy aims to weaken Taiwan’s resolve and international perception of its willingness to defend itself.
Tokyo, Japan’s capital, represents a crucial strategic alliance point for the United States in the Pacific. The coercion strategy seeks to exploit Japan’s historical hesitancy and create doubt about its commitment to supporting Taiwan. By applying nuclear signaling and diplomatic pressure, China aims to potentially paralyze Japan’s decision-making capabilities. Isolating Japan from active support could significantly diminish the United States’ operational capabilities in the region, effectively removing a key strategic ally from potential intervention scenarios.
Washington D.C., the center of US political and military decision-making, becomes the ultimate strategic target. The goal is to generate profound uncertainty about the willingness to commit military or diplomatic resources to Taiwan’s defense. By creating a narrative of potential futility through demonstrations of Taiwan’s internal weakness, Japan’s reluctance, and the high potential cost of intervention, the strategy aims to make US policymakers question the strategic value of supporting Taiwan.
These three cities are a part of a multi-dimensional pressure system, where each location becomes both a target and a lever in a complex geopolitical mechanism.
1 Strategy, 3 Mechanisms
The coercion strategy deploys three intricate mechanisms. First, a subversion approach targets Taiwan’s internal political infrastructure through potential infiltration by covert agents, saboteurs, and compromised insiders. This strategy using the Chinese “Fifth Column” aims to create deep fractures within Taiwanese society, potentially bribing, intimidating, or discrediting political leaders and military commanders. The ultimate goal is to generate internal confusion, sow doubt about national resilience, and potentially convince operational commanders to stand down without direct military conflict.
A maritime blockade strategy represents the second mechanism, leveraging China’s expanding naval and paramilitary capabilities to strategically isolate Taiwan. This approach could involve complex maritime operations using Coast Guard vessels, maritime militia, and sophisticated regulatory mechanisms like custom inspections. The blockade is designed to create physical deprivation and psychologically demonstrate Taiwan’s vulnerability and isolation, potentially undermining international support.
Nuclear signaling emerges as the third, most provocative element. This involves China’s expanding nuclear modernization strategy, developing precise, theater-level nuclear capabilities that could be used as a coercive tool. By increasing nuclear readiness, moving nuclear-capable units, and issuing strategic statements about “red lines,” China could create a credible threat environment designed to deter US and Japanese intervention.
The strategy’s profound complexity lies in its interconnected nature. These mechanisms, when combined, create a multi-dimensional pressure system that could potentially achieve strategic objectives without direct military confrontation. By targeting political will, alliance reliability, and psychological thresholds of intervention, the approach represents an ancient goal of warfare-to win without fighting.
