Israel’s June 12/13 Strike on Iran May Mark Turning Point in Middle East History
Israel’s June 12/13 military strike on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure, as well as the targeted killing of the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and six of Iran’s top nuclear scientists is a devastating blow to Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon. But, this strike, known as “Operation Lion Rising“, may have much broader and far-reaching implications for the future of the Middle East. First, some observations on the strike.
Israel’s exploding pager operation against Hezbollah, Ukraine’s ingenious deep penetration drone strike on Russia’s nuclear bomber force, and now Israel’s Operation Lion Rising, each show how warfare is changing, yet also remaining the same. New and novel uses of drones on the battlefield is revolutionizing and transforming warfare as we used to know it. Indeed, it is estimated that 70 percent of the military casualties in the Russian-Ukraine War have been conducted with drones and autonomous systems. As Bob Dylan once sang, “Times, are a changin.” But, each of these operations also demonstrated that well-placed human intelligence, or HUMINT, operatives remain a precious, invaluable commodity that must be nurtured and protected by a bodyguard of lies.
How valuable was Israel’s Mossad in supporting Operation Rising Lion? We will never know publicly. Nonetheless, it is clear from open-source reporting that good old-fashioned HUMINT was a key part of Israel’s strike, much like it was for Israel’s exploding pager operation. It is likely that Israel’s 12/13 June strikes against Iran took years of elaborate planning, coupled with the recruitment and training of human spies deep inside Iran to carry out the operation. Likewise, it likely took many months and years for Mossad to smuggled vehicles, weapons, and drones into Iran to set the stage for last night’s strike. As Napoleon Bonaparte once said, “One well-placed spy is worth two battalions.” Now, one or two, or three well placed spies may prevent a wider war or save a city. Drones are having their moment in the sun, but good old-fashioned HUMINT remains paramount. Thumbs up to Mossad.
Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the U.S.-Israel hammering of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, also altered the battlespace to Israel’s advantage. Iran losing its proxies and its Russian benefactors in Syria further weakened the hand of Iran’s mullahs.
Did this strike completely take out Iran’s nuclear weapons program? Probably not. Facilities like Iran’s Fordow are buried deep inside a mountain, as are other parts of their program. But, that doesn’t mean you can’t entomb at least some of those facilities and personnel. Bottom line, Iran’s nuclear weapons pursuit and program has been dealt a serious blow and likely dormant for quite some time. Maybe for good if Iranian protests result in the overthrow of the regime.
So, what comes next?
Operation Rising Lion may be the beginning of the end of Iran’s theocratic regime, Already, there are protests in Tehran and elsewhere throughout Iran advocating for the removal of Iran’s mullahs. Hopefully, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Jordan will covertly aid such a movement. US President Donald Trump’s historic May 13, 2025 speech in Saudi Arabia, and his overture to Syria, add an elixir that may accelerate historic and fundamental change in the Middle East. Saudi and Syrian recognition of Israel may come sooner than many think. It is also telling that no Syrian targets were struck by Israel, at least thus far, during this operation. This is something that would never have occurred prior to Trump’s speech.
Iran’s mullahs will clearly try and find ways to strike back and retaliate. Did any Iranian sleeper agents cross into the U.S. during President Joseph Biden’s four-year open border? And if so, will they try and carry out a terrorist attack here on the US homeland? And thank goodness that Trump reversed the Biden-era ‘war’ on oil and fossil fuels. Where would the price of oil be this morning if he had not? Setting those musings aside, the world waits to see Iran’s response.
