Civil War Comes to the West | Military Strategy Magazine

Betz, David, “Civil War Comes to the West,” Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 9, Issue 1, pages 20-26.

Betz, D. (2025). “Civil war comes to the West, part II: Strategic realities,” Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 10 Issue 2, pages 6–16.

Civil War Comes to the West

This is the first of two essays. It deals with the reasons why civil war is likely to dominate the military and strategic affairs of the West in the coming years, contrary to the typical expectations of the future war literature, and generally the strategic logic which shall underpin such wars. The next essay will address specifically the actions and strategies which existing military forces might pursue before and during these conflicts.

Europe is a garden. We have built a garden. Everything works. It is the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity and social cohesion that the humankind has been able to build—the three things together … Most of the rest of the world is a jungle…[i]

So said EU Foreign Affairs chief Josep Borrell in Bruges in October 2022. Future dictionaries will use it as an example of the definition of hubris.

That is because the major threat to the security and prosperity of the West today emanates from its own dire social instability, structural and economic decline, cultural desiccation and, in my view, elite pusillanimity. Some academics have begun to sound the alarm, notably Barbara Walter’s How Civil Wars Start—and How to Stop Them, which is concerned primarily with the dwindling domestic stability of the United States.[ii] To judge from President Biden’s September 2022 speech in which he declared ‘MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic’ governments are beginning to take heed, albeit cautiously and awkwardly.[iii]

The field of strategic studies, however, is largely silent on the issue, which is strange because it ought to be something of concern. Why is it correct to perceive the increasing danger of violent internal conflict erupting in the West? What are the strategies and tactics likely to be employed in the civil wars to come in the West and by whom? These are the questions which I shall address in this essay.

Brief Overview of Part 1:

This essay presents an examination of potential civil conflict within Western societies. Dr. David Betz argues that contemporary social, economic, and cultural fractures are creating conditions ripe for internal strife. He systematically deconstructs the traditional assumptions about Western societal stability while highlighting three critical dimensions of potential civil conflict- causation, conduct, and strategic logic.

The argument centers on the erosion of social cohesion, marked by declining institutional trust, deepening political polarization, and the rise of identity politics. Dr. Betz identifies key destabilizing factors such as the collapse of social capital, asymmetric multiculturalism, and growing perceptions of status reversal among dominant demographic groups. Notably, the essay suggests that civil conflict would likely manifest along urban-rural lines, with infrastructure vulnerability serving as a potential catalyst for systemic breakdown.

Dr. Betz emphasizes the strategic implications of these emerging tensions. He warns that modern Western societies possess inherent vulnerabilities—particularly in critical infrastructure and supply chains—that could be exploited by various factions seeking systemic disruption. This piece ultimately provides a framework for understanding the complex sociological mechanisms that could transform political disagreement into active civil discord.

Civil War Comes to the West, part II: Strategic Realities

This is the second of two articles on the dawning of an uncomfortable new strategic reality for the West, which is that the primary threat to its security and well-being today is not external but internal—specifically, civil war.[i] In the first essay, I explained the reasons that this situation has arisen: a combination of culturally fractured societies, economic stagnation, elite overreach and a collapse of public confidence in the ability of normal politics to solve problems, and ultimately the realisation by anti-status quo groups of plausible strategies of attack based on systems disruption of vulnerable critical infrastructure. In this article I expound on the likely shape that civil war will take and the strategies that might be employed to minimise and mitigate the damage that will entail.

At the time of writing the countries that are most likely to experience the outbreak of violent civil conflict first are Britain and France—both of which have already experienced what may be described as precursor or exemplary incidents of the kind discussed further below. The conditions are similar, however, throughout Western Europe as well as, for slightly different reasons, the United States;[ii] moreover, it must be assumed that if civil war breaks out in one place it is likely to spread elsewhere.[iii]

In the previous article in this journal, I explained how the conditions which scholars consider to be indicative of incipient civil war are present widely in Western states. According to the best guess of the extant literature, in a country where the conditions are present the chances of actual civil war occurring is four per cent per year.[iv] With this as an assumption, we may conclude that the chances of it occurring are 18.5 per cent over five years.

Let us assume, based on the existence of recent statements to that effect by credible national political or academic figures, that there are at least ten countries in Europe that face the prospect of violent civil conflict. In Appendix 1, I provide fifteen such examples—readers may dispense with whichever five of those they deem less credible. The chances then of it occurring in any one of these countries over five years is 87 per cent (or 95 per cent if you include all 15 of the sample).

A further reasonable assumption is that if it occurs in one place it has the potential to spread elsewhere. If we say, arbitrarily but plausibly, that the chances of spreading are half and half, then we may conclude that the chances of it occurring in one of ten Western states and then spreading to all others is about 60 per cent (or 72 per cent with all fifteen of the sample included) over five years.

A reasonable person might argue with the assessment of all or some of these factors and calculations. Perhaps things are only half as bad as I argue, might the risk therefore be just two per cent per year? On the other hand, perhaps I have been rather conservative? As I have argued previously the perception of ‘downgrading’ of a former majority which is one of the most powerful causes of civil war, is the main issue in all of the cases at hand.[v] Objectively, one must conclude that there is ample cause for concern about a worryingly large possibility of a form of war occurring in the West, to which it has not thought itself vulnerable for a long time.

This brings me to the matter of to whom this article is addressed. The first intended audience is statesmen, a constituency which I hope will get the message that the danger is ‘clear and present’, to use the jargon. The second is the general public, to whom I wish to say ‘No, you are not taking crazy pills’, the feeling you have had that something like this is going seriously wrong is right.

Finally and most specifically I hope to address military commanders at all levels, but particularly those with the greatest authority. You have spent a quarter of a century now thinking about insurgency and counterinsurgency. You know exactly what is in store for a fractured society under economic stress in which political legitimacy has been lost because your own doctrine spells it out.[vi] Everything that the general staffs and ministries of defence are now doing is secondary to the primary danger.

There is good precedent for what I am suggesting be done. In February 1989 Boris Gromov was the most highly regarded general in the Soviet Army, an obvious candidate to be chief of the general staff, and in time to be minister of defence. Instead, he resigned from the Army to join the Interior Ministry as commander of internal troops—a policeman, in effect. A perplexed journalist begged him to explain why he did it. The answer was that he feared civil war.[vii]

Soviet society was configured in a way that drove it towards internal conflict, he believed. Gromov’s duty, therefore, as he understood it, was to reorient his mindset to meet the main danger. The situation faced by soldiers and statesmen in the West today is fundamentally similar. It is as imminent for them now as it was for General Gromov on the eve of the implosion of the USSR.

The question: If civil war in the West is potentially as imminent, what ought commanders be preparing to do now? The answer is that a drastic reorientation of mindset on the part of the Western defence establishment is required. Generals should be formulating strategies to respond to the reality of civil conflict now. At the very least, should they fear for their careers lest they begin to plan for the outbreak of civil war without a civilian political directive, they ought to seek such a directive.

The essay which follows is intended as a guide to some of the things they might seek permission to consider.

Brief Overview of Part II:

In part II of “Civil War Comes to the West,” Dr. Betz presents a follow-up analysis of the potential for civil conflict in Western societies. He highlights an emerging strategic reality that internal tensions pose a more significant threat than external challenges. He unpacks the probability of civil war across Western nations by estimating a substantial 87-95% chance of violent conflict occurring in at least one country within a five-year period. This article focuses on three primary dimensions of potential civil conflict: the emergence of “feral cities” characterized by deteriorating governance, the strategic importance of cultural infrastructure protection, and the critical need for establishing secure zones to mitigate humanitarian damage.

Key insights include the geographic polarization of political sentiments, demonstrated through electoral maps showing deep societal fractures, and the vulnerability of urban infrastructure to systemic disruption. The article emphasizes that modern civil conflicts are likely to target critical support systems, with rural areas potentially weaponizing cities’ dependence on external infrastructure. Dr. Betz warns of potential massive population displacement, cultural destruction, and the risk of foreign intervention by drawing parallels with historical civil conflict patterns.

Dr. Betz emphasizes the urgent need for military and governmental leadership to proactively prepare for potential internal conflicts. He recommends comprehensive strategies such as cultural property protection, establishment of secure humanitarian zones, and careful management of critical infrastructure and potential weapons of mass destruction risks. This piece serves as a critical wake-up call, as complex emerging internal societal tensions are potentially devastating.