Chipping Away a Long-Standing Alliance: The Impact of Tech Restriction Communications on US-Polish Relations
Introduction
In January 2025, the outgoing Biden administration introduced a series of new restrictions on microchips aimed at curbing China’s access to advanced technology and maintaining US leadership in artificial intelligence (AI). This includes a three-tiered system that categorizes countries based on their access to advanced graphics processing units: Tier 1 consists of allied nations with unrestricted access; Tier 2 consists of countries with export quotas and licensing requirements; Tier 3 consists of arms-embargoed nations that are entirely restricted from receiving advanced AI technology. Among other provisions, major US cloud service providers can apply for authorizations to operate AI data centers globally, which allows them to bypass onerous licensing requirements, though not without strict conditions.
US technology restrictions targeting the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are not new, but the January restrictions have triggered surprising reactions in Poland. These negative reactions are unexpected given the bipartisan consensus in the United States on limiting advanced technology transfers to the PRC and the expectation of an even stricter export regime under a potential second Trump administration. This is especially remarkable considering the strong US-Poland bilateral relationship of the past eight years. This relationship, further cemented by increased security cooperation following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, suggests that Polish concerns likely stem from something other than a fundamental disagreement on defense priorities. The logic here is that a strong, recently reinforced bilateral relationship, particularly on security matters, would generally lead to closer alignment on related policy issues like technology export controls. As such, Poland’s unexpected reaction suggests a different underlying cause for their concerns.
The United States considers Poland a close defense ally, a relationship underscored by significant arms sales and defense cooperation. In the fiscal year 2022-2023, total US arms exports reached US$238 billion, with Poland ranking first among allied nations in contract size. This commitment to Poland’s defense is further exemplified by increased cooperation and high-tech procurement, including the finalized delivery of 32 F-35A Husarz fighter jets in August 2024. This transfer underscores US support for Poland’s security and demonstrates strong trust in Poland’s ability to safeguard sensitive American technology. The US and Poland enjoy a robust relationship encompassing mutual defense cooperation, procurement, and technology transfer.
US Microchip Tiered Export System
Recent US technology restrictions do not signal a pivot in US-Poland engagement on the US side. Instead, many Polish policymakers and commentators view it as a de-prioritization of the relationship. The tiered export system, as it was communicated, is to blame.
Tier 1 countries are considered close allies and partners of the United States, with strong strategic and economic ties. They generally have strong export control systems and are deemed to pose minimal risk of diverting sensitive technology. These countries enjoy essentially unrestricted access to advanced AI chips and can import them without significant limitations or licensing requirements. This tier includes countries like the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and some members of the European Union.
Tier 2 countries generally have a less established relationship with the United States or may have a weaker export control system. They are seen as posing a moderate risk of technology diversion. These countries face export quotas and licensing requirements for advanced AI chips. They can import them, but the quantity and types of chips are subject to limitations and approvals.
Tier 3 countries, including China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other nations under US arms embargoes, are prohibited from acquiring advanced technologies from the United States. In addition to hardware restrictions on advanced semiconductors, there are further limits on the export of closed AI models to Tier 3 countries. This means that powerful AI models can not be hosted within these countries.
A visual depiction is located here.
The tiered system aims to strike a balance between protecting US national security and maintaining economic relationships with key partners. Though there is a logic to the way in which these restrictions are implemented, the tiered system is not without its backlash. Polish reactions to these restrictions have been characterized by disappointment, surprise, and politicians expressing a sense of betrayal and unfair treatment.
Polish Reactions to the Tiered Export System
Many Polish officials and commentators expressed disappointment and surprise at being placed in Tier 2, considering Poland’s status as one of America’s closest allies. Some view the decision as a sign that, at best, Washington does not trust Poland and, at worst, is willing to sacrifice its interests for the sake of containing China. The following comments have been translated from Polish into English by the authors.
President Andrzej Duda: “We were not among the closest allies we ended up in the second basket of countries that are not considered the most friendly and secure, the most trusted by the United States. My personal opinion is that this will be to Poland’s detriment.”
Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski described the decision as ‘incomprehensible and unmeritorious’ and stressed that EU countries should be treated equally by the US. “I have asked the Minister of Foreign Affairs to take firm and urgent action on this matter.”
Official communication from the Ministry of Digitalization: “We find the US administration’s decision incomprehensible and not based on any substantive rationale. The subject was not previously consulted at any stage.”
Minister of Development and Technology Krzysztof Paszyk: “The dispute exposes how easily European allies can become collateral damage in US efforts to contain Chinese technological advances. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have stepped up efforts to restrict China’s access to high-tech products, sometimes to the detriment of European companies.”
Deputy Minister for Digitalization Dariusz Standerski: “The problem arises when we talk about multi-year planning and we are actually talking about uncertainty, because this map is tentatively set for 2027, but a new administration will come in, and it may arrange the world completely differently. This causes problems in public procurement, it causes problems in planning not only in Poland, but also in other parts of Europe.”
Prof. Piotr Sankowski from University of Warsaw: “The tone of the document is clear: yellow countries should forget about developing their own superintelligence. And the limits are supposed to be enough for them only for ordinary AI applications because ‘this limit ensures that American technology is available to serve foreign governments, medical providers and other local enterprises. So, God forbid we should think about some global AI.”
Jarosław Królewski, founder and president of Synerise (AI startup): “Classifying Poland as a ‘second tier AI’ country – a country that is a faithful ally of the United States, fighting shoulder to shoulder on many fronts, while educating some of the best computer scientists in the world – computer scientists who often power US AI companies – may be the greatest allied betrayal since World War II.”
In rushing to publish export restrictions in the final days of the Biden administration, poor communication and cooperation with allies on export restrictions is unnecessarily sacrificing US influence in Eastern Europe. While Poland will continue to be a large buyer of US arms, host US troops, and maintain current defense cooperation, the rushed announcement has created uncertainty and doubt over the future of strong bilateral ties in one of America’s most ardent allies.
Opportunity for Improving US-Poland Relations
The PRC has perfectly timed the release of their DeepSeek AI model as US allies, like Poland, are struggling to influence the new administration to change the restrictions on microchips. Despite DeepSeek using an older generation of microchips, that are not explicitly covered by the recent US tech restrictions, the PRC created this model at a fraction of the cost of US models. The market crash in response to the announcement of DeepSeek is the perfect representation of mass uncertainty about the future of US technological innovation and its commitment to international collaboration on emerging technologies. Regardless of our trust in the security, truthfulness, or motivations behind DeepSeek, it is clear that the Trump administration needs to update the export controls.
To build and maintain robust relationships to contain PRC military advancements, the United States must engage allies while maintaining its own innovation momentum. Strong alliances rely on American leadership in all spaces, especially technology, making the need to secure our own intellectual property, proprietary technology, and national security secrets first and foremost. To do so, we must engage our allies and partners to build trusted networks that expand the circle of Tier 1 countries. Working with countries on moving them from Tier 2 to Tier 1 has overlap with their own national security objectives, including their own intellectual property protection, enhancing cybersecurity, and making them economically resilient.
The statements from Polish commentators also reveal that a multipolar world order is forming, where other countries are emerging more capable than they were in previous decades, and thus have their own national objectives and innovative capacity. Poland’s rise as a security leader, not just a security consumer, in Eastern Europe is something that we can work with to better meet the challenges posed by Russia and China. Inviting Tier 2 countries to contribute to a global technology security regime will not weaken US export controls but enhance it – they may even see gaps where we do not.
Allies will now be watching how the United States handles technology restrictions closely, each with its own interpretation of its reasoning, implication, and remedies. Meeting Chinese influence means meeting other countries, including Poland, where they are in terms of their own technological ambitions, whether that is security, economic, or diplomatic, all while maintaining a competitive edge. Aligning US technology restrictions with the ambitions of our allies will counteract malign influence, support US national security, and build a Europe capable of providing for its own defense.
