Ukraine: Plan for the End Now…. So, It Is Not a Surprise

“Someday this war’s gonna end.”

               Lieutenant Colonel William “Bill” Kilgore, Apocalypse Now (1979) 

All wars end, that is what they do. The Korean War might be an exception to this rule. As a result, the Korean War might provide a good example for Ukraine’s situation and how to conclude its war with Russia. That being said, unless Ukraine and its Western supporters want to fight to the last Ukrainian soldier, it is time for the Ukrainians, and their supporters, to prepare the way for a successful transition to a long-term peace. Planning for the eventual end to hostilities now is better than muddling through to an uncertain outcome later down the road.    

Make no mistake, this war is a war between Russia and the West. In this use, the West refers to NATO and the European Union (EU). Ukraine is the serving as the West’s proxy force against Russia, conducting nearly all the combat operations against Russia’s military forces, and carrying the brunt of the costs for the destruction, chaos, and societal upheaval within Ukraine. 

For these reasons the West should lean hard on both sides to sit down and negotiate the end of the conflict. Because of its leading position in providing funding and material support to Ukraine, the US should maintain a central position in these negotiations. This does not mean, however, that the US should be front and center, and lead the face-to-face negotiations needed to end the conflict. 

The West’s primary negotiators should include Ukraine along with Poland, Finland, the Baltic States, and the Czech Republic. These countries best understand the Russians, what it is like to live under Russian domination, and how best to deal with Russians. Other European countries, such as France, Germany, and the non-EU United Kingdom can provide a supporting role during these negotiations. 

Russia can have its supporters on its side of the table, if they desire. This would likely include China, Belarus, North Korea, and Iran. Establishing a negotiation framework will be hard work, but only then can the parties start the work to craft a path forward for Ukraine, Russia, and greater Europe. This transition to peace will take time so getting the process started as soon as possible is vital for the belligerents, the EU, and the rest of the world.   

A Potential Path to Peace

First, there should be a Korean War type armistice. The armistice ended the hostilities on the Korean peninsula between the belligerents, which included the United Nation’s (UN) forces and the North Korean forces. The UN’s forces consisted of military contributions from 16 states, all led by the US military. The North Korean forces were supported both directly and indirectly by China and Russia. It took two years of negations to get the armistice signed and a demilitarized zone established as the border between North and South Korea. The armistice remains in place today as the two sides continue to work towards a peaceful settlement to the war.  

A Ukraine-Russia armistice could lead to stopping the war and ending the killing and destruction devastating eastern and southern Ukraine. If Ukraine does not regain all its occupied territory before negotiations begin, then a “Sunflower Curtain” might be erected across Ukraine. This “Sunflower Curtain” would divide the country into two distinct polities: Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine. Kyiv would administer Western Ukraine, whereas the Kremlin would administer Eastern Ukraine. This “Sunflower Curtain” could facilitate a line of control between Ukraine and Russia. For instance, people on either side of the “Sunflower Curtain” could choose upon which side of the partition they want to live and relocate there, as required. 

With an armistice in place, displaced people could return to Ukraine, a defensive line would be established, and additional security measures then could be established. This would also facilitate the repatriation of the Ukrainian diaspora throughout Europe and the world, helping Ukraine regain the population it lost during the war with Russia. This would also help end cross-border attacks and attacks on Russian territory too. The negotiated peace would end drone attacks on Moscow and other cities and stop the military operations by various anti-Kremlin paramilitary groups activities. Further, the negotiated peace would force Ukraine to develop a long-term defense strategy regarding Russia. 

A safe and secure Ukraine will be able to rebuild and provide a stabilizing presence in eastern Europe against Vladimir Putin’s proclaimed goal of conquering Ukraine. As needed and agreed upon, there could be United Nations or non-UN peacekeepers deployed along both sides of the “Sunflower Curtain.” These peacekeepers could possibly include non-aligned nations, African forces, and even Chinese could be asked to provide troops. Once the fighting stops, however, reconstruction can begin, and new security structures can be put in place to prevent future conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. 

Ukraine still seeks membership in NATO. Yet, that might come later, rather than sooner (if ever at all). This should not be a distractor to stopping the war and starting on the road to recovery. NATO and other non-NATO supporters of Ukraine could and negotiate security guarantees to ensure Ukrainian independence and sovereignty. These agreements could mirror the multi-year security arrangements that Israel and Taiwan have with the West. A long-term security arrangement might work to put a stop to a Russian desire of aggressive expansion into Europe while helping with Ukraine’s integration into western Europe.  

Nevertheless, if the “Sunflower Curtain” transpires, a troubling precedent could be set. The recognition of a “Sunflower Curtain” in Ukraine might enshrine in the world’s mind yet again that it is acceptable for one state to illegally take the land of another sovereign country. 

Conclusion

Although this way forward might seem like giving up, and giving in to Russian aggression, it provides an opportunity to get on with rebuilding Ukraine. And a strong, functioning, and independent Ukraine will be the best defense against future Russian aggression. The final resolution and total recovery of Ukrainian territory might take longer. After all, it took many years for the Berlin Wall and Iron Curtain to fall. Make no mistake, this war is going to end, the only question is how.