An Open Letter to His Excellency Volodymyr Zelenskyy

At this crucial time in Ukraine’s history, it is useful to draw upon an historical example to help inform your next very important strategic decisions. We ask you to consider the example of another Commander-in-Chief, Gustav Mannerheim of Finland, who led that nation’s defense against a Soviet attack. The parallels between Ukraine’s war against Russia and the Russo-Finnish war of 1939-1940 are instructive:

• The aggressor heavily outnumbered the defenders and on paper it appeared that the war would be quickly won.
• The aggressor relied on operational level combined arms maneuver warfare to win quickly, but inept leaders and poor quality troops led to failure, forcing the aggressor to rely on simplistic, but effective, mass assaults that resulted in over 208,000 casualties in one year.
• Western forces were never sent.
• England, France, the United States, Italy, and Sweden provided material assistance.
• Facing culmination and defeat, the aggressor reorganized and renewed its assault by relying on firepower to overwhelm the defender’s positions.

By early 1940, it was clear that the aggressor forces would keep what they currently held and continue a relentless war of attrition, whatever the cost.  The defense of the Finns was epic, and still remembered to this day with awe and great respect. The Finns had done the impossible and were in a position militarily and strategically to save Finland from destruction.

It was a bitter and temporary peace. The Russians gained all of their original demands plus some additional concessions. The losses of population, economic resources, and defensible terrain in the Karelian Isthmus-Viipuri area were especially serious. Yet, it gave the Finns the means to survive, and in another year, conduct offensive operations against the enemy. Mannerheim had saved his country, built alliances and set the stage for a long-term peace treaty in 1948, allowing Finland incrementally to move closer to the West, and by 2023, become a member of NATO.

As Commander-in-Chief, you have the same military-strategic opportunity as Mannerheim did in 1940. You, like Mannerheim, have demonstrated inspiring leadership, the courage and skill of your soldiers and the resolute response of your citizens has won the world’s admiration and respect. Mannerheim chose to preserve his country’s long-term survival in the face of unrelenting attacks. Finland had to fight again and had to accommodate its aggressor neighbor, but that opened the path to eventual integration with Europe and peace along a shared border with a former aggressor. After 1948, it took 45 years for Finland to join the European Union and 75 years for Finland to realize its strategic position as a member of NATO. Without that initial peace of 1940, none of these outcomes could have been possible.

The lesson is clear: strategic decisions made in the present have consequences that guide policy, strategy, and military defense to the ultimate benefit of future generations. The history of your own family, as well the history of tens of thousands of Ukrainians who lived through the terrible years of Bolshevik and Nazi terror, know that what is ultimately important is to survive to fight another day. Ukraine, like Finland, may not achieve its desired strategic objectives in the near term, but future leaders, guided by your example, may achieve those goals in the future.

With Mannerheim as your inspiration and Finland’s success as your objective, seek your best position to gain a respite, build capabilities and allies, and stand ready to repel any future threat to the homeland. In doing so, you will pass on your strategic vision to future presidents to the ultimate benefit of your nation.

With deepest respect,

Keith D. Dickson & Yurij Holowinsky