Emerging Threats Group Journal: Hilary Term 2025, Volume 1

“The Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group at Oxford University meets regularly each term to examine the national security implications of critical and emerging technologies (CETs), from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to directed energy and space platforms.

Meetings are held in hybrid format, in-person at Oxford and online, to include diverse viewpoints from academia, industry, and policy, matching the global reach of technological innovation and challenge.”

The Emerging Threats and Technology Working Group Editor’s Note:

The global security environment is always in a state of flux. However, some periods are more volatile than others. We are living through one of those periods right now.

In the last six months, the world has witnessed a revolution in Syria, the weakening of Hezbollah, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Gaza, and a resurgence of fighting on the edge of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

The same holds true in America. Whether making an effort to end the war in Ukraine or rebalancing America’s interests in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, the second Trump administration will oversee sweeping foreign policy and national security realignments.

Change is to a constant. In this edition of the Emerging Threats Journal, we’re looking at some of that change, whether it’s developments in military and grayzone technologies, or the underlying theory of deterrence.

Nima Khorrami writes about the online gaming and digital spaces, especially in Sweden, as a new frontier in covert informational operations.

Conrad Kunadu examines developments and challenges to traditional theories of deterrence.

Marios Batalias uses Hamas as a case study to look at the future of hybrid warfare and terrorism.

Andro Mathewson describes how modified commercial drones have been utilized in Ukraine, drawing implications for state and non-state conflicts in the future. 

Brendan Walker-Munro examines Generative AI, Synthetic Biology and Implications for Biosecurity.

All of these practical and theoretical innovations are deeply interconnected. The power dynamics between states depend significantly on advancements in weapons technology. As these essays illustrate, this technological balance is undergoing rapid transformation. Asymmetries in operational capabilities, military technology, or information security can trigger substantial disruptions in interstate relations. If we expect further global upheaval, the developments described in this edition of the ETJ can help explain why.

Farrell Gregory is the Chief Editor of the Emerging Threats Journal. He is currently a visiting student, studying PPE at Mansfield College, Oxford. He previously interned in the United States Senate, the Strategic Studies Institute at the Army War College, and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.