How to Counter Russian Occupation: Building Multinational Resistance Networks Before a Crisis

How to Counter Russian Occupation: Building Multinational Resistance Networks Before a Crisis by Tim Soderlund is published by the Irregular Warfare Initiative.

From Soderlund:

“The resurgence of Russian aggression has reignited the importance of preparing for occupation and resistance, particularly for nations on NATO’s eastern flank. History shows that Russian occupation consistently involves at least three key elements: forced deportations, population control, and the systematic dismantling of leadership to suppress resistance movements. Drawing lessons from past efforts, such as the Forest Brothers’ guerrilla war in the Baltics, and integrating modern tools like publicly available secure digital technologies, NATO and its allies can better prepare resistance networks to counter these tactics. This article explores historical lessons from resistance movements, examines contemporary challenges posed by Russian occupation, and proposes solutions that emphasize pre-crisis planning, technological innovation, and multinational coordination.”

Historical Lessons

• The Forest Brothers’ Resistance (1940s-1950s):
  • Guerrilla warfare in the Baltics inflicted heavy costs on Soviet occupiers but ultimately failed due to lack of external support.
  • Soviet deportation operations (e.g., Operation Priboi, 1949) strategically weakened resistance by displacing nearly 100,000 people.
  • Political leaders were replaced with Soviet loyalists, illustrating the long-term effectiveness of Russian population control tactics.
• Recurring Russian Occupation Strategies:
  • Systematic deportations and repopulation with Russian loyalists.
  • Elimination of local leadership and forced assimilation through language and passport controls.
  • Use of informants and security forces (e.g., the KGB) to dismantle resistance structures.

Modern Parallels in Ukraine

• Russian occupation follows the same blueprint as Soviet-era efforts:
  • Forced deportations (e.g., 700,000 Ukrainian children taken to Russia).
  • Political appointees installed to suppress local governance and resistance.
  • Information warfare employed to legitimize occupation and control narratives.

Strategic Recommendations for Resistance Networks

1. Multinational Pre-Crisis Planning:
   • Formalized alliances and exiled government structures to ensure continuity of leadership.
   • Agreements between NATO allies for operational depth and logistical support.
2. Leveraging Secure Digital Technologies:
   • Remote command-and-control capabilities for decentralized operations.
   • Information warfare strategies to expose Russian human rights violations and disinformation.
3. Institutionalized Support for Resistance Movements:
   • Coordinated training, intelligence sharing, and resource allocation.
   • Ensuring resistance networks are self-sustaining and adaptable under occupation conditions.

Soderlund argues that proactive planning and multinational coordination can mitigate historical failures of resistance movements. Strengthening pre-crisis resilience, leveraging modern technology, and fostering NATO-wide cooperation can counter Russia’s established occupation strategies, preventing nations from meeting the same fate as the Forest Brothers.