Cutting Aid Makes the World More Dangerous: Central America 2019 Proved It
International aid is crucial for promoting global stability, advancing U.S. foreign (and domestic) interests using soft power, and maintaining our position as an influential global superpower on the world stage.[1] Foreign aid, specifically the US Department of Aid (USAID), has been pivotal in addressing security concerns abroad, especially in Latin America.[2] Indeed, foreign aid has been responsible for addressing the drivers of migration from Central America, combatting organized crime and drug production in places such as Mexico and Colombia, gang eradication in Haiti and other Central American locales, and addressing other pressing humanitarian and security concerns in areas such as Venezuela, the Caribbean and elsewhere.[3][4]
Considering that the US spends less than one percent of its entire federal budget on foreign aid programs, this is a small bill to pay, and it has tremendous direct and indirect benefits for our nation.[5][6] While policymakers and international aid advocates repeatedly echo this argument, President Trump continues his dismantling of USAID with Elon Musk’s help, with no formal federal approval. If repeatedly discussing the social good of foreign aid and USAID cannot dissuade the dismantling process, highlighting the negative consequences might help organizations that want to mitigate the damage. We will have a proliferation of previously established and new threats to address now that these aid programs are not in place.
We have been here before. Specifically, we saw a smaller-scale version of aid disruption in 2019 in Central America. The first Trump administration decided to suspend and reprogram approximately $396 million in foreign assistance intended for El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—the Northern Triangle of Central America. Ironically, US Congress members on both sides of the political aisle had previously supported comprehensive aid strategies to address issues of violence and migration in the region, allocating 2.6 billion dollars in foreign assistance to Central America from 2016 to 2019.[7][8] This abrupt suspension of foreign aid, including the closure of key programs and offices involved on the ground capacity-building programs such as law enforcement training, violence reduction programs, migration resettlement, economic development programs, and others, ultimately led to the termination and restructuring of critical services in these countries, exacerbating vulnerabilities and increasing migration pressures.
While this move was intended to pressure Central America to curb migration to the United States, the withdrawal had unintended and detrimental consequences. These countries experienced increased violent crime and strengthened organized crime networks, which fostered mistrust toward the United States. It also exacerbated migration; we see this today with more migrants coming to our borders. In short, the aid disruption fundamentally reversed much of the progress made to address the root causes of migration in the region. As the US reevaluates its foreign aid strategies under the current administration, it is crucial to consider the far-reaching impacts of aid revocation on global security strategic interests.
Escalation of Violent Crime
Historically, foreign aid through USAID has been crucial in funding community-based crime prevention programs in the Northern Triangle. These initiatives, when paired with other foreign assistance programs, have been instrumental in reducing homicide rates and other forms of violence. For instance, between 2015 and 2017, El Salvador experienced a 42% decline in homicide rates, while Guatemala and Honduras saw 13% and 23% reductions.[9]
In at-risked areas where USAID and the State Department provided more targeted programs, such as community-based crime prevention programs, homicide rates declined by 66 percent to 78 percent.[10]
Aid suspension disrupted many of these programs, leading to downsizing and/or outright termination in some cases. A community-based policing project from 2019, which I engaged in evaluating, was in place to improve overall police performance and citizen-police attitudes. These programs were cut abruptly, with police units scrambling to find access to the tools, workforce, and organizational oversight to conduct their jobs effectively. As a result, many programs were left unfinished, with mixed implementation successes. The disruption of such services eliminated critical support systems that were effective in mitigating violence, leaving communities vulnerable to escalating crime rates and further exacerbating already high levels of mistrust in police. In sum, the abrupt cessation of funding undermined years of progress in criminal justice reform in Central America.
Empowerment of Organized Crime
The withdrawal of US assistance in 2019 strengthened organized crime groups in the region. For example, a report from Insight Crime in 2019 highlighted that cutting aid significantly impacted programs focused on fighting corruption, preventing youth violence, and combating organized crime, including funding for criminal investigation units, violence prevention programs, and anti-corruption efforts. As a result, the suspension of aid weakened regional efforts to address these critical issues, with some areas seeing increased organized crime and political corruption.[11] Much like the trends in violent crime, the absence of US involvement in the region diminished the capacity of local institutions to address issues surrounding organized crime. It also created a power vacuum that criminal groups could fill to strengthen their operations in Central America.
Erosion of Trust in the United States
The decision to revoke aid has also led to a significant erosion of trust in the United States among Central American nations. These countries have long viewed US assistance as a symbol of partnership and commitment to regional stability. While our relationship with the region has never been perfect, sudden withdrawal was perceived as a betrayal by allies, fostering resentment and skepticism toward US intentions.[12] Our abrupt removal from the region undermined collaborative strategies to address challenges with migration, security, economic development, and decreased goodwill. Even upon our return, it left our allies questioning whether we were reliable partners and whether we would leave these strategic partnerships again. This uncertainty has encouraged them to seek alternative alliances to help meet shared objectives. In 2025, we have certainly justified their misgivings regarding U.S.-Central American partnerships. If we know that the 2019 decision to revoke aid to Central America had far-reaching and detrimental effects, why are we doing it again?
Restore USAID and Our Ability to Use Soft Power on the Global Scale
To promote global stability and safeguard its national interests, the United States must recognize that revoking aid makes the world more dangerous. A commitment to continued support is not merely an act of charity but a strategic imperative for a safer and more secure world. To say this is simply a piece of U.S. diplomacy that needs to be removed to lower the budget deficit is disingenuous.
An immediate restoration of USAID and its operations abroad is necessary to mitigate these adverse effects. Eliminating our use of USAID damages America’s global standing and harms our national security interests. Our removal from the international aid field allows countries like China to fill our leadership roles.[13] Indeed, China has already begun making inroads into Latin America, with approximately 150 billion dollars being sent to the region since 2005. This is more than combined lending from the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the CAF-Development Bank of Latin America.[14]
Further, we need to restore USAID’s operations to continue our approach to addressing security-based issues such as organized crime and the root causes of migration. Central America in 2019 provides a precise case study of the dangers of revoking aid—rising crime, increased migration pressures, and the proliferation of criminal networks all stem from reduced U.S. engagement. I agree with Eric Olson that we are fundamentally tying our own hands in our fight against organized crime.[15] Still, we are also faltering in our other long-term strategic goals and interests in the region. While traditional aid approaches are not a quick fix (nothing good ever is!), shutting down assistance is simply counterproductive in addressing our long-term security concerns.
President Trump claims he wants to protect the bottom line of the United States and maintain economic and national security; dismantling USAID directly contradicts those claims. In 2019, his administration also openly admitted that it did not assess existing programs’ effectiveness or impact on addressing issues of pressing national importance, such as organized crime and migration.[16] In essence, the administration, much like it is today, displays an astonishing contempt for Congress and its role in allocating funds to necessary programs. The President’s adoption of Project 2025 and similar policies that advocate for a reduction in foreign aid fail to recognize critical roles in fostering stability and curbing transnational crime. If Marco Rubio and members of Congress cannot or will not stop the bleeding of USAID, it is up to organizations working in crime prevention, security, and community relations to find ways to mitigate and fix the harm already done. A strategic recommitment to foreign assistance is an investment in global peace and safeguarding America’s security and prosperity.
Endnotes
[1] Emily M. Morgenstern and Nick M. Brown. “Foreign Assistance: An Introduction to U.S. Programs and Policy.” Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service. 2022, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40213.
[2] “Trump’s Pause of U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America: An ‘America Last’ Policy.” Washington Office on Latin America. 2025, https://www.wola.org/analysis/trumps-pause-of-u-s-foreign-assistance-to-latin-america-an-america-last-policy/.
[3] Peter J. Meyer, “U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: FY2025 Appropriations.” Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service. 15 November 2024,https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R48266/2.
[4] Ibid. and Op. cit., Washington Office on Latin America at Note 2.
[5] “In Focus: U.S. Agency for International Development: An Overview.” Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service. 14 August 2020, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10261/8.
[6] Ellen Knickmeyer, and Meg Kinnard, “What to Know about USAID, and Why It’s a Target for the Trump Administration,” Associated Press. 3 February 2025, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-to-know-about-usaid-and-why-its-a-target-for-the-trump-administration.
[7] Chelsa Kenney, “Northern Triangle of Central America: The 2019 Suspension and Reprogramming of U.S. Funding Adversely Affected Assistance Projects.” Washington, DC: US Government Accountability Office. 24 September 2021, https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-104366.
[8] Peter J. Meyer, “U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America: Policy Issues for Congress.” Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service. 2019, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10371/15.
[9] “Central America and U.S. Assistance.” US Global Leadership Coalition. July 2019, https://www.usglc.org/media/2019/04/USGLC-Fact-Sheet-Central-America.pdf.
[10] Ibid.
[11] Héctor Silva Ávalos, “Why US Aid Cuts to Central America Will Help Organized Crime.” Insight Crime. 24 May 2019, https://insightcrime.org/news/why-us-aid-cuts-central-america-help-organized-crime/.
[12] Teresa Welsh, “Trump Funding Cuts Hurt 80% of USAID Central America Programs: Report.” Devex. 16 October 2021, https://www.devex.com/news/trump-funding-cuts-hurt-80-of-usaid-central-america-programs-report-101936.
[13] “China’s Growing Global Influence: What’s at Stake?” US Global Leadership Coalition. April 2021, https://www.usglc.org/chinas-growing-influence-is-america-getting-left-behind/.
[14] Matt Ferchen, “How China Is Reshaping International Development.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 8 January 2020, https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/01/how-china-is-reshaping-international-development?lang=en.
[15] Eric L. Olson, “US Ties Its Hands in Fight Against Organized Crime,” 7 February 2025, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/us-ties-its-hands-fight-against-organized-crime.
[16] “Assessing the Impact of Cutting Foreign Assistance to Central America.” Washington D.C.: Hearing Before the Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, and Trade. 25 September 2019, https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/110041/documents/HHRG-116-FA07-Transcript-20190925.pdf.
