Pax Polska: Poland is Primed to Become the Backbone of Europe’s Security
An attack on one is an attack on all. The principle of collective defense is at the heart of NATO—an institution that is a product and pillar of the liberal world order. NATO is a congruence of different states, and that feature enables the alliance to share resources and create a formidable defensive line against aggression. The combined force of NATO allies acts as deterrence, but that deterrence does not work if a pass-the-buck mentality takes hold amongst allies. Russia’s renewed aggression has spurned a surge of investment in European military readiness, and Poland is emerging as one of NATO’s top spending and rising military powers. Economic growth in Poland has given it the resources it needs to invest in its military, and its position on the eastern edge of the alliance, bordering Russia, has helped it generate the political will necessary to build one of NATO’s largest standing armies. Undeniably, Poland’s prioritization of defense is turning it into a bulwark in the east.
One of the core principles at the heart of the US-led rules-based international order is the sanctity of sovereignty and the aversion to wars of territorial conquest. Russia has repeatedly challenged those conventions and, more recently, shattered them with its latest invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This Russian aggression in Europe has rekindled interest in NATO and revitalized its relevance. It is understandable, then, that proponents of the liberal order react strongly to President Trump’s hostile rhetoric against NATO. As an institution, NATO contributed to the staying power of the peace of Pax Americana—the period after the end of World War II (WWII), which remains the most peaceful in modern history. Yet, looking past the rhetoric, the crux of Trump’s disdain is his belief that the US’s NATO allies are freeloading at the expense of the American taxpayer.
President Trump’s rhetoric has triggered a sense of urgency in Europe. European NATO partners have started increasing their military spending and preparedness in response to what they see as the unreliability of the US as a security partner under a second Trump presidency. Poland is chief among the European countries that are building up their self-reliance. As Trump put it in 2020, “Poland is one of only eight that is current with the money that they are supposed to be paying … the United States is defending a lot of countries that are delinquent … I never feel too good about that.”
Is Europe Passing-the-Buck?
In 1951, President Eisenhower said, “If, in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project [NATO] will have failed.” The United States is a different country now. It has a military presence in over 170 countries on all continents except Antarctica. Europe is an important front for American security. The NATO alliance as an institution enforces that security and fosters political goodwill amongst its members. However, there has been wavering and varying European commitment to spending on military readiness, which has triggered frustration in Washington.
There hasn’t always been an issue of European commitment to defense spending. In an emergency, NATO has a history of stepping up. During the Cold War, European NATO members spent over 3% of their GDP on defense, with the UK spending around 7% in the 1950s. In 2023, only ten of the 32 NATO countries’ spending was at the 2% of GDP goal. The Russian invasion of Ukraine changed that, and by 2024, 23 of the 32 countries had reached that goal, with a collective $1.47 trillion spent on defense.
The sense of urgency felt in Europe is not uniform. The countries closest to Russia—the Baltic and Nordic states have prioritized defense, while Germany and other wealthy European countries are underperforming. If all NATO countries spent 2% of GDP on defense, that would materialize in approximately $43.5 billion in extra funding. Additionally, if Germany, France, and the UK alone spent at US levels, that would generate an additional US$ 132 billion in spending. (Note: The figures cited in this paragraph are calculated based on the difference of military spending as a percentage of GDP from the 2% goal and applied to the latest available GDP data in current US dollars.)
Poland stands out among the European countries that increased spending after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland is one of only two NATO countries that outspends the United States. It currently spends over 4% of GDP. The increase in spending has allowed it to expand its armed forces to 216,000 personnel in 2024. Poland now has the third-largest NATO standing army after the US and Turkey, beating larger economies like Germany, France, and the UK. Despite its current military size, Poland aims to increase its armed forces further to have the largest European fighting force. It stated that it is preparing for a scenario of “full-scale conflict” with Russia and its allies.
How is Poland Preparing?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided Poland and the rest of NATO with a laboratory for observing Russian capabilities. It enables them to tailor their defense development to address the Russian threat. Poland is strategically selecting equipment to counter Russian aggression. Warsaw is investing in armor, air defense, and artillery as it learns from Russian tactics on the ground.
Poland has favored American and Korean hardware to replace dated Soviet equipment. For its artillery, Poland bought Korean K9 howitzers, K239 Chunmoo systems, and American High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). For armor, Poland chose the Korean K2 Black Panther, the American M1A1FEP Abrams, and the M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams. This adds to its existing fleet of German Leopard II tanks.
Regarding air defense and air power, Poland ordered the American Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS) and the Patriot system. This supplements its British Common Anti-air Modular Missile Extended Range (CAMM-ER) surface-to-air missiles and their launchers. The Polish Air Force, however, still needs upgrading. It has ordered new training jets and bought used Saab 340 Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft equipped with Erieye radars from the UAE—giving its Air Force early warning capability. For its offensive capabilities, Poland ordered 32 F-35A Lightning II jets.
Poland is also getting involved with large NATO countries to develop more costly programs that fill strategic security gaps in Europe. In 2024, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland signed a letter of intent to jointly develop a long-range precision-strike system, the European Long-range Strike Approach (ELSA) program. Once active, the system would supplement Poland’s modernization efforts with advanced counterattack capabilities, as the system intends to be a ground-launched cruise missile with a 600 to 1,200-mile range.
Poland borders Russia and Belarus. This provides the logistical advantage of being close to a potential front in a war with Russia. The proximity has enabled it to avoid using resources for complicated logistics. Additionally, Poland chose not to spend on support functions like intelligence, relying instead on its NATO partners with established capabilities to fill that need.
Despite all the hard work, Poland’s military modernization is still incomplete. Although they have less manpower, militaries like those of the UK, France, and Italy still out-punch Poland in terms of equipment and experience. Moreover, France and the UK have nuclear weapons. The gap between Poland and its European partners will nonetheless continue to shrink as Poland’s economic development and modernization efforts continue.
What Drivers Enable Poland to Modernize its Military?
Poland has a long history of subjugation by larger European powers, the last of which was the Soviet Union. Poland’s history of invasion is etched in the country’s national memory, adding to its long-held distrust of Russia. Poland is also close to the war in Ukraine. Images of the impact of war on Ukrainian civilians have given the government the political capital to prioritize defense spending.
Likewise, military development cannot be divorced from economic development. European Union (EU) membership has expanded the Polish economy, enabling it to take on capital-intensive projects like military modernization. Since joining the EU, Poland has received over €250 billion in structural funds. In 2004, the Polish GDP per Capita was 48% of the EU average—it is now at 82%. Its GDP grew from $255 billion in 2004 to $845 billion, an increase of over 230% in twenty years. Furthermore, Poland’s GDP growth rate in 2024 was 3% and is projected to stay around that level into the near term. Poland has become the sixth-largest contributor to the EU economy.
Poland is also looking to the future. Spending on R&D increased from 0.6% of GDP in 2004 to 1.5% in 2024, an increase of over 160%. In the same period, EU-wide spending on R&D increased by less than 30%. In 2022, Poland had over 300,000 people working in research. The country’s efforts to grow its internal defense industry drive part of the surge in support to R&D.
Poland is both an emerging military power in Europe and an emerging economic power. As its economy continues to develop, so will its capacity to strengthen its armed forces. The institution of the Polish armed forces and the increased spending on them are received positively by the Polish people. Unlike in Germany, there is national pride in strengthening Polish military capabilities. This will continue to sustain high investments in defense.
Challenges Facing Poland
Despite the increased spending on research and development, Poland still has a challenge with innovating. With over 7,400 entities conducting research, Polish R&D has yet to materialize in significant innovations. Poland remains a net importer of technology and equipment despite having the population to support a local industry. Years of neglect and underfunding have curtailed the Polish defense industry’s production capacity. State-owned PGZ, a holding company of 50 defense companies, is the dominant local firm—only around 10% of Polish military spending went to it. (Note: Calculated using total contracts given to PGZ and total Polish defense spending of that year.)
As Poland aims to have the largest European standing army, its shrinking demographics will be a long-term challenge for the state. Poland has had net population declines for years, driven by its citizens’ immigration and decreasing birth rates. Its current population of under 37 million people has decreased by nearly 2 million since its peak in the 1990s. 2023 marked the lowest number of births in modern Polish history, with an average birthrate of 1.2 children per woman.
Poland is addressing the challenges it faces. Regarding innovation, the government is providing substantial funding, with support for higher education and science increasing by a record 22% in 2023. For the demographics, as Poland continues to develop economically, the opportunities in a growing economy are attracting its expatriate and emigrated citizenry to return home. Additionally, the war in Ukraine helped drive an increase in consumption-driven growth, as 2.5 million of Poland’s estimated 3 million migrant workers are Ukrainians, of which a little under 1 million are refugees.
Conclusion
Detractors may disagree with President Trump’s rhetoric against NATO. However, from an American perspective, the argument is sound. Despite the recent increases in defense spending, NATO’s current levels are not enough. Secretary-General Mark Rutte said, “He is right about this,” when discussing Trump’s demands for increased European spending. Understandably, President Trump’s rhetoric is causing uncertainty in Europe. Uncertainty also breeds opportunity. The wealthier states in Europe are still some of the world’s largest and most innovative economies. If they focus their resources on defense, NATO can reemerge stronger and more relevant than ever. For now, however, countries on the front line, like Poland, are building their self-reliance on security.
On Poland’s Independence Day in 2022, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, “The Polish army must be so powerful that it does not have to fight due to its strength alone.” Poland is beginning a long process of modernizing its military and turning it into a major military power and deterrent against aggression. The change in the economic fortunes of Poland and the invasion of Ukraine spurred a boon in the resources and political will necessary for military modernization. Poland’s investments in the latest military hardware and build-up of its manpower and readiness have turned it into a formidable strength. Additionally, its location bordering Russia on the eastern flank of NATO allies makes it indispensable for European security. Poland’s defensive capabilities have grown by leaps over the past few years. It remains to be seen if Poland’s efforts will bring about Pax Polska in the East.
