COMPOUND MARITIME (IN)SECURITY

Epilogue …

Imagine, … in a tension-gripped year of 2028, the world inches towards a novel kind of warfare—one that sprawls across the arteries of international trade, the maritime chokepoints.

In the Strait of Hormuz, an insidious cyber onslaught disrupts the flow of oil, sending the United States and China into a scramble of military posturing and peace-brokering. A drone strike targeting a vessel in the Suez Canal escalates tensions, with fingers pointing towards Chinese military strategists, compelling the US to strengthen its Mediterranean fleet and Russia to show off its naval capabilities in response.

In the South China Sea, Chinese AI drones aggressively assert dominance, intimidating neighboring nations into a fraught dance of diplomacy and deterrence. The Panama Canal, too, falls prey to cyber interference, triggering delays that highlight the influence of Russian digital operatives and stretching American naval defenses.

Dramatically altering the naval chessboard, Russia and China join forces to pioneer the Northern Sea Route, proposing an alternative to the conventional maritime corridors dominated by Western powers and introducing a bold challenge to the status quo.

Even as the Black Sea burgeons with tension and Brazil’s southern ports enter the stage as geopolitical prizes, the consequences of disrupted global commerce are felt worldwide—from soaring costs to shattered economies.

With the international community in tumult, the UN convenes to address the shattering potential of widespread conflict. Secretive diplomatic endeavors aim to forge a semblance of agreement, yet the enduring undercurrent of rivalry casts a long shadow over the future of international maritime law and the collective hope for enduring peace.

This foretold story is a near-future thriller.  “The Battle of the Straits: A Geopolitical Maelstrom,” weaves a tale of clandestine cyber skirmishes and shadowy military maneuvers that threaten the delicate lattice of global commerce.

The storyline unravels across several strategic locations.  Terse and potent, the story captures the real-world implications of these clashes: disrupted supply chains, skyrocketing costs of trade, and an ever-complicating global political matrix of alliances and enmities. As nations grapple with these emerging threats, the narrative explores the repercussions for local economies, marking a stark rise in regional tensions and an accelerating arms race.

“The Battle of the Straits” ends as a stark allegory for the potential crises that might arise from the world’s growing geopolitical fissures—where the all-too-real game of nations plays out in the waters that carry the lifeblood of global trade. 

Unfortunately, this stark allegory told as a useful fiction is now an actuality, of a world where the stability, security, and prosperity of the ‘Global (Maritime) Commons’, are now rapidly becoming a deadly “Un-Commons.”

Future security, prosperity, and profits lie in the balance of ‘winning’ this “Battle of the Straits” now begun; most importantly, doing so in preventive ‘ways’ that can achieve ‘wins’ without fighting.   

COMPOUND MARITIME (IN)SECURITY

Strong pointing Trade Security & Profitability in the Global ‘Un-Commons’ thru “3D+C” Integrated Statecraft Solutions

(a ‘compound security competition’ (CsC) use case)

By Isaiah (Ike) Wilson III, PhD

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Challenges to maritime security, especially in choke points like the Red Sea, threaten global trade and present complex, ‘compound security’ issues. These challenges include military threats to navigation that affect energy supplies, economic stability, and efforts to address climate insecurity issues, and especially through energy transition. The United States’ Operation Prosperity Guardian seeks to safeguard the waters of the Red Sea and the Bab al Mandeb strait but has had limited success. Current military and diplomatic strategies are inadequate to fully protect these vital economic lifelines, hence the need for a multifaceted “3D+C” approach—combining Defense, Diplomacy, Development, and Commercial strategies.

Maritime security directly influences financial stability. Disruptions in choke points impact global markets, hindering trade and inflating costs. These threats pose economic risks at global, regional, and local levels, potentially affecting investment confidence, pricing, and livelihoods. An integrated “3D+C” approach is crucial for ensuring a secure and stable maritime trading environment to mitigate those risks.  Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) in choke point regions can bolster local economies, enhance security infrastructure, and contribute to regional stability. Strategic investments can transform local choke points into assets of regional stability by improving employment, economic planning, and governance.

The proposal promotes a state-centric, private-public partnered maritime security solution, where governments maintain control and leverage commercial investments. It contrasts with privatized security models, ensuring that key decisions are guided by collective good and strategic foresight rather than by purely profit motives.  Human security is a fundamental component of this strategy. Protecting and empowering individuals in choke point regions is essential, fostering safer conditions for maritime activity and reinforcing the socio-political fabric against potential security threats.

Conclusively, an integrated “3D+C” approach, with a focus on state control and investments in human and local security, offers a robust solution to maritime security challenges. It aligns defense, diplomacy, development, and commercial interests, ensuring safe navigation and stability in maritime choke points, contributing to global economic growth and prosperity. Such a holistic approach ensures the protection of commerce, local communities, and the global supply chain.

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Defining and Addressing the Proximate Challenge: The ‘world-system’s’[1] oceans and its related ecosystems are undeniably ‘shared’ (hence, the concept of a global oceans “commons”), but increasingly violently contested (and hence, a rising ‘un-commoning’ of the global maritime commons).  In the present-day context, 90 percent of global trade transport through oceans, which are laced by a network of shipping routes connecting continents and Islands with one another around the world (Alexander, 1992). Commercial shipping and warships often travel through straits, channels and narrows waterways to reduce transport costs; and time of transport is money. Similarly, these narrow areas of convergence prove geostrategically determinative, for their use and utility, throughout the ages, for purposes of interdiction of commercial trade traffic, to purposes of war-fare and peace-fare.  For millennia, at least fourteen (14) specific passageways, referred to as ‘choke points’ (Rodrigue, 2004), have proven historically determinative for world-system stability, in both geopolitical and geoeconomic terms.

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea today, hurt global trade and slow the energy transition. Recent attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have underscored the importance of seaborne international trade and challenged the role of the United States in safeguarding commerce in the global commons. Maritime trade of energy, especially, is of fundamental importance to the security of supply for energy and to the price felt by consumers worldwide. In addition, the effects of a major disruption to freedom of navigation holds many damaging but indirect consequences—including slowing progress on addressing climate change.

These ‘intersectionalities’ define the Houthi anti-maritime attacks at the Bab al Mandeb Strait, and across the Red Sea, as a set of local ‘troubles’ for sure; but more strategically consequential, as a global compound security dilemma. The additional fact that these ‘local acts’ of resistance and/or terrorism (depending on your point-of-view) are also proxy and surrogate moves in a wider ‘great game’ afoot, only makes this compound security dilemma more complex and intractable to traditional forms of intervention treatments.   Again, let’s look clear-eyed and critically at the ongoing Iranian-supplied Houthi attacks in and around the Red Sea’s Bab al Mandeb chokepoint. The United States’ response to the attacks, Operation Prosperity Guardian, concentrates naval assets and command-and-control bandwidth on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, wedged between the Horn of Africa and the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula. Operation Prosperity Guardian has engaged Houthi drones, surface-to-ship ballistic missiles, small combatant vessels, and other arms in defense of merchant traffic and naval assets. However, the operation has thus far failed to deter further Houthi attacks and have equally failed to provide assurance of safe passage to commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea. 

Appreciating ‘Compound’ Maritime Insecurity.

Compound maritime insecurity refers to the multifaceted threats that arise in strategic maritime zones, particularly around global chokepoints – narrow channels critical for international navigation. These chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca, facilitate a significant portion of the world’s trade and energy supplies, making their security paramount for global economic stability.

Quick Analysis: The dynamics that define compound maritime insecurity include, but are not limited to, piracy, terrorism, smuggling, illegal fishing, and geopolitical tensions. These threats are interconnected, with one often exacerbating another. For instance, piracy can be linked to weak state governance, which in turn may be exploited by terrorist groups, further destabilizing the region.

Quick Examination: In a detailed examination, we find that the negative consequences of compound maritime insecurity for shipping include the disruption of global trade flows, increased costs due to rerouting or heightened insurance premiums, and the physical risks to cargo and crew. These challenges have a pronounced impact on the supply chains and can lead to global market volatility.

For littoral states, or those adjacent to maritime chokepoints, compound insecurity can exacerbate existing governance and fragility issues. Weak coastal and port security can invite criminal activity, which can erode state authority. This erosion manifests in decreased economic growth due to diminished investor confidence and potential loss of shipping revenues, thereby straining the already fragile governance structures.

Quick Evaluation: The impact of compound maritime insecurity on shipping and littoral state governance and fragility is severe and has several dimensions:

Compound maritime insecurity at global chokepoints presents complex challenges that can have detrimental knock-on effects for shipping, global trade, and the governance and stability of littoral states. Its multi-layered nature requires a coordinated response that combines local governance strengthening, regional cooperation, and international support to ensure the security and free passage through these critical maritime arteries. Addressing the root causes of insecurity, such as economic disparity, political fragility, and inadequate law enforcement, is also crucial for sustainable solutions that benefit all stakeholders.

Given the complexity of these diverse maritime regions and their respective security dynamics, a fully detailed examination of each individual use case would be exceedingly lengthy and beyond the scope of this prospectus. However, what follows is a concise amended analysis that considers the compound maritime insecurity within these specific locations.

In evaluating the complexities across these chokepoints and regions, it is apparent that compound maritime insecurity takes on distinctive forms influenced by local and regional factors. The overarching negative consequences range from economic losses due to disruptions in shipping routes to heightened regional tensions and governance challenges posed by illicit activities, natural disasters, and geopolitical strife.

Each region demands tailored strategies that address not only immediate security concerns but also long-term regional cooperation and development. The imperative involves strengthening maritime governance, fostering resilient infrastructure, and ensuring a balance in great power involvement. It’s particularly relevant for regions like the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, where great power competitions intensify security risks.  Rapid responses to incidents like the Suez Canal blockage and the fortification of infrastructure against both cyber and environmental threats, as seen in the US Gulf Coast, are examples of measures needed to combat compound maritime insecurity. Additionally, multi-lateral frameworks that encourage cooperation, as seen in the Strait of Malacca through coordinated patrols by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, offer models for regional approaches to managing maritime security.

Understanding the ‘Proximate’ Problem in its ‘Enlarged Context’:  What’s unique about this new global security environment, and what are we missing?  War is, once again and everywhere, on the rise. And our existing structures and processes for planning and analysis, including our military-civilian campaigning ways, are not sufficient for todays and tomorrow’s needs. The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London’s annual Armed Conflict Survey paints a grim picture of rising violence and highlights a paradoxical global security landscape: where a popular sense of an “intractability” of crises coexists with a condition of unsober and unseriousness in realizing and coping with the full gravity of today’s security dilemmas. As historian Max Hasting further notes,

… One of the primary reasons Europe went to war in 1914 is that none of the big players were as frightened as they should have been, of conflict as a supreme human catastrophe. After a century in which the continent had experienced only limited wars, from which Prussia had been an especially conspicuous profiteer, too many statesmen viewed war as a usable instrument of policy, which proved a catastrophic misjudgment.