04/19/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
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News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs
1. Biden’s withdrawal the ‘worst of both worlds’
2. Afghanistan withdrawal plan could involve small troop surge
3. From Moral Responsibility to Magical Thinking: How Biden Changed His Mind on Afghanistan
4. America’s Longest War: A Visual History of 19 Years in Afghanistan
5. With Afghanistan decision, Biden restores foreign policymaking process that Trump had largely abandoned
6. Mara Karlin selected to lead Pentagon strategy office
7. New bill aims to give Coast Guard voting seat in Joint Chiefs of Staff
8. SOCOM Keeps Pushing for New Armed Overwatch Aircraft
9. Biden’s Defense Budget Squeeze
10. New Zealand ‘uncomfortable’ with expanding the scope of Five Eyes alliance
11. Advocates Hope First Female Army Secretary Brings Change
12. FastTake: What’s missing from US Intel’s 2021 Threat Assessment
13. Taiwan says its seeking long-range cruise missiles from U.S.
14. Joe Biden sees Japanese leader Yoshihide Suga as his new “Ally in Chief” as China tensions rise
15. FedEx shooter Brandon Hole was obsessed with ‘My Little Pony’: report
16. Quad partners push supply chain resilience
17. Wuhan officials identified Huanan market as a pandemic risk at least five years before Covid emerged
18. Perspective | America’s mission in Afghanistan isn’t accomplished
19. UN ambassador: America’s ability to acknowledge its ‘imperfections’ is ‘our strength’
20. Assessing the Value of the Lariat Advance Exercise Relative to the Louisiana Maneuvers for Preparing the U.S. Army for Large-Scale Combat Operations
21. Update the Small Wars Manual for the 21st Century
22. Some charged with storming U.S. Capitol try to use defense that they were there to record history as journalists
23. How Hard Is It to Indoctrinate Religion-Soaked Special Operations Troops Into QAnon Extremist Views?
24. Oath Keepers: How a militia group mobilized in plain sight for the assault on the Capitol
25. The Fort Bragg Murders
26. Special Operations News Update – Monday, April 19, 2021 | SOF News
1. Biden’s withdrawal the ‘worst of both worlds’
The Australian · by David Kilcullen · April 17, 2021
Excerpt: “Indeed, a smart but cynical approach for President Biden would have been to go ahead and withdraw but blame Trump, forcing the former president to shoulder the responsibility for any negative consequences. Biden began his speech in that vein—saying that, like it or not, the US needed to honour Trump’s agreement—but then spent the rest of the speech justifying the decision to leave. By the end, he had so aligned himself with the decision that, whatever happens next, he now owns the outcome. It’s also probably only a matter of time before someone asks the obvious question: if it was so essential to pull American troops out of Afghanistan in order to end the forever wars and focus on China, what about the thousands still deployed in Iraq and Syria? Shouldn’t they come home too? Trump’s answer would have been a resounding “Yes”. What is Biden’s? With the midterm elections still almost two years away, there is plenty of time for any negative outcome in Afghanistan, or any inconsistency on Iraq, to harm President Biden politically.
2. Afghanistan withdrawal plan could involve small troop surge
militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · April 16, 2021
For how long and at what political price?
Excerpt: “American troops will leave behind some 300,000 Afghan security forces, for which Austin said Wednesday the Pentagon will likely continue to cover payroll.
3. From Moral Responsibility to Magical Thinking: How Biden Changed His Mind on Afghanistan
Foreign Policy · by Michael Hirsh · April 16, 2021
Excerpts: “Biden’s announcement could also accelerate the end of “forever wars” against other terrorist groups around the world like the Islamic State if they are no longer deemed to pose a strategic threat to the United States. In his speech, the president cited the rise of new challenges such as China and global health, saying, “We’ll be much more formidable to our adversaries and competitors over the long term if we fight the battles for the next 20 years, not the last 20.”
In the end, Biden said, his decision was about ending the needless sacrifice of young Americans like his late son Beau, who served in Iraq and whom he mentioned in his speech.“
War in Afghanistan was never meant to be a multigenerational undertaking,” he said. “We were attacked. We went to war with clear goals. We achieved those objectives. [Osama] Bin Laden is dead and al Qaeda is degraded in Afghanistan. And it’s time to end the forever war.”
4. America’s Longest War: A Visual History of 19 Years in Afghanistan
View the photos at the link.
5. With Afghanistan decision, Biden restores foreign policymaking process that Trump had largely abandoned
The Washington Post · by Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan · April 18, 2021
Does a disciplined process lead to the best decisions?
Excerpts: “But the bottom line, according to several senior administration officials, is that Afghanistan is no longer a high U.S. priority, as it was in 2001, compared with the threats of 2021, including Chinese and Russian aggression, terrorist surges elsewhere in the world, climate change, global health and nonproliferation. Public opinion has strongly supported withdrawal.
The administration has pledged it will continue paying for Afghanistan’s own security forces, pressing for inter-Afghan negotiations, providing humanitarian assistance, and using diplomatic and economic tools to keep the Taliban from returning to the draconian policies and repression of women and minorities that characterized the last time it controlled Afghanistan, from the mid-1990s until the 2001 U.S. incursion in pursuit of Osama bin Laden that quickly became war with the Taliban.
In an interview Sunday with ABC’s “This Week,” Blinken seemed to accept an inevitable militant takeover. If the Taliban has “any expectation of getting any international acceptance, of not being treated as a pariah,” he said, “it’s going to have to respect the rights of women and girls” or risk the withdrawal of “international recognition” and “international status.”
6. Mara Karlin selected to lead Pentagon strategy office
Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · April 16, 2021
Chief military strategist.
7. New bill aims to give Coast Guard voting seat in Joint Chiefs of Staff
wearethemighty.com · by Jessica Manfre · April 15, 2021
I missed this. But the Coast Guard is not part of the DOD (except in war time).
8. SOCOM Keeps Pushing for New Armed Overwatch Aircraft
nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Yasmin Tadjdeh
Excerpts: “If you look at what … a Reaper costs in order to keep top cover over a small contingent of folks — and you have that capability 24 hours a day — you’re going to need three or four drones,” he said. “You’re going to need at least two cycles of air crew that are on watch all the time.”
The drones will also require runways that are pristine and debris free, whereas some light-attack aircraft can fly out of more rugged airfields, Venable noted.
Additionally, the areas in which SOCOM plans to use the aircraft will not be high threat environments where they will face surface-to-air missiles that are radar guided, he said. It’s possible they could encounter shoulder-launched SAMs but there are countermeasures that light-attack aircraft could deploy, he added.“
You don’t want to put aircraft and aircrew at risk unnecessarily, but when you have Americans [on the ground] that are doing their job and they are in harm’s way, you’re going to put everything you need” in the air to protect them, Venable said. “That’s what airmen do and that’s what we need to have the ability to do.”
Lawmakers must act quickly to give AFSOC the capability it is asking for, he said.
“The SOF community does not need another study,” Venable said. “They need to go out and grab these airplanes and start fielding them now to give their folks top cover. That needs to be urgent.”
9. Biden’s Defense Budget Squeeze
WSJ · by The Editorial Board
Welfare state versus defense.
Will we save any money from our withdrawal in Afghanistan? Is there ever really a “peace dividend?”
Excerpts: “Perhaps the Administration will wring money from the Army after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. But the modest savings aren’t enough to compensate for an overall spending decline. The current fleet simply can’t meet U.S. commitments in the Indo-Pacific in addition to the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf. The Navy has aging submarines to upgrade and the Congressional Budget Office said last month that “required maintenance is projected to exceed the capacity of the Navy’s shipyards in 25 of the next 30 years.”
To its credit, the White House budget outline mentions money for long-range weapons “to bolster deterrence and improve survivability and response timelines.” One of the People’s Liberation Army’s assets is its large arsenal of precision missiles designed to destroy American ships in the Pacific. More American long-range fires—especially if they are portable and ground-launched—can help the balance of power at relatively low cost.
Yet some of the Pentagon funds will also go to “mitigate impacts of climate change.” That leaves even fewer resources for core fighting capabilities. Washington can’t ask the military to deter emboldened great powers and fight climate change on a declining real budget.
10. New Zealand ‘uncomfortable’ with expanding the scope of Five Eyes alliance
sbs.com.au · by Updated Updated 5 hours ago
Really? My guess is New Zealand probably makes the smallest contribution to the Five Eyes.
11. Advocates Hope First Female Army Secretary Brings Change
defenseone.com · by Tara Copp
Excerpt: “I hope she [Wormuth] will continue some of the reforms that [former Secretary] Ryan McCarthy and [Chief of Staff Gen. James] McConville have started with the Army,” Thornberry said. “I think this is a challenging time for all the services. They’re all going to have to rethink how they do business.”
12. FastTake: What’s missing from US Intel’s 2021 Threat Assessment
atlanticcouncil.org · by Ronald Marks and Barry Pavel · April 16, 2021
As Cohen and Gooch wrote, all military (and I would expand to say all national security failures) are a failure of three things: failure to learn, failure to adapt, and failure to anticipate. And anticipating is the hardest s of all.
13. Taiwan says its seeking long-range cruise missiles from U.S.
japantimes.co.jp · April 19, 2021
Something else to stick in the eye of the CCP/PRC.
14. Joe Biden sees Japanese leader Yoshihide Suga as his new “Ally in Chief” as China tensions rise
Newsweek · by Bill Powell · April 18, 2021
Excerpts: “The biggest flashpoint in the region, of course, is Taiwan. Analysts noted that the statement issued by the two sides in March mentioned Taiwan specifically—a seemingly innocuous line that read: “The Ministers underscored the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” The mention of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, angered the PRC. Biden and Suga did not discuss Taiwan in great detail during Friday’s getting-to know-you meeting. But current and former U.S. defense officials and diplomats believe Japan needs to be brought more into the conversation about how the U.S. and its allies would respond should Beijing move against Taipei.
The problem is, that’s something Japan may not yet be ready for. As Toshihiro Nakayama, professor of American politics and foreign policy at Tokyo’s Keio University, says, “let’s be honest, Japan is the only ally that could play an active role in a Taiwan contingency.” But the issue for Suga and the current political leadership in Tokyo is straightforward. “Are we really willing to play an active role,” asks Nakayama. “It’s not something we’ve really talked about in Japan yet. The conversation needs to be initiated by the political leaders.”
But the conversation is constrained by Japan’s so-called “peace constitution,” originally drawn up under the occupation of General Douglas McArthur after World War II, which still effectively limits Japan from doing anything militarily except defending the homeland. Talking with Newsweek, Suga said it remains the Liberal Democratic Party‘s position to amend the constitution to allow Tokyo to play a more robust defense role in the region. But he also acknowledged it would be a laborious effort to get that done, and as such, “we must admit that the situation is very difficult.”
Japan’s diplomatic renaissance, its position as Washington’s Number One ally in the 21st century’s central geopolitical issue—how to deal with Beijing—comes with risks, analysts say. The possibility of a sudden conflict with Taiwan illustrates those risks. “If it actually happens, and Japan is not forthcoming in playing an active role, it might be a crisis moment for the alliance,” says Nakayama.
15. FedEx shooter Brandon Hole was obsessed with ‘My Little Pony’: report
foxnews.com · by Gabrielle Fonrouge
What a weird world we are living in.
16. Quad partners push supply chain resilience
ipdefenseforum.com · by Felix Kim · April 13, 2021
Excerpt: “Beijing has used its position as a dominant supplier of rare earth elements, which are vital to electronics manufacturing, to pressure its trading partners. In 2010, for example, the PRC limited the export of rare earth elements to Japan because it detained a Chinese fisherman for fishing illegally in Japanese waters.
The recent chip shortage exposed an overreliance on the PRC for critical supplies, Michael Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro in London, told FORUM.
“There was already a preexisting objective in the U.S. to minimize reliance on China for geopolitical reasons,” he said, adding that it makes sense for countries to collaborate on diversifying their supply chains.
17. Wuhan officials identified Huanan market as a pandemic risk at least five years before Covid emerged
The Telegraph · by Sarah Newey,
But this is true of every “wet market” anywhere in the world.
Excerpt: “Dr Holmes, who now works at the University of Sydney, said the visit was part of a wider project to hunt for new pathogens with pandemic potential in China.
“The Wuhan CDC took us there, and here’s the key bit, because the discussion was: ‘where could a disease emerge?’ Well, here’s the place – that’s why I went,” Dr Holmes told The Telegraph in an interview.
“I’ve been to a few of these markets, but this was a big one – it felt like a disease incubator, exactly the sort of place you would expect a disease to emerge”.
Live animals held in Wuhan’s Huanan market in October 2014, taken by Dr Eddie Holmes during a visit to the site Credit: Eddie Holmes
18. Perspective | America’s mission in Afghanistan isn’t accomplished
The Washington Post · by Bradley Bowman · April 17, 2021
Excerpts: “These threats won’t just go away once we leave. Rather than looking for the exits, then, the prudent course would be to view a modest U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, with troop levels roughly comparable to the coalition presence there now, as part of America’s enduring global military posture, a manageable investment in American security. To put it in perspective, U.S. strength in Afghanistan today is around 10 percent of the U.S. force stationed in South Korea.
Clearly, we must always ensure our troops have what they need to defend themselves and carry out their mission. And we certainly shouldn’t keep our service members in harm’s way a day longer than America’s interests require. Every military casualty is a tragedy, as is every death here at home from a terrorist attack. But given the continued threats in Afghanistan and the benefits of retaining a modest force there, the burden of proof rests with anyone — including members of Congress and the president — making the case to the American public that we can safely withdraw in September.
19. UN ambassador: America’s ability to acknowledge its ‘imperfections’ is ‘our strength’
The Hill · by Joseph Choi · April 18, 2021
I subscribe to what Congressman Clyburn of South Carolina says, what makes us a great nation is that we can and do correct our mistakes. (I am paraphrasing). It is what our noble experiment is all about.
20. Assessing the Value of the Lariat Advance Exercise Relative to the Louisiana Maneuvers for Preparing the U.S. Army for Large-Scale Combat Operations
divergentoptions.org · by James Greer · April 19, 2021
“Lariat Advance.” I remember one of the Lieutenants in our battalion in the early 1980s coming in late for the alert and almost missing movement because his wife answered the phone (remember the old phone trees for alerts?) and heard Lariat Advance and replied with “Larry who? There is no Larry here” and hung the phone and went back to sleep and did not wake her husband.
Assessing the Value of the Lariat Advance Exercise Relative to the Louisiana Maneuvers for Preparing the U.S. Army for Large-Scale Combat Operations
21. Update the Small Wars Manual for the 21st Century
19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · April 18, 2021
There are lots of publications out there that have pieces and parts of the Small Wars Manual (re ARIS project at USASOC – a number of publications at JSOU just to start). But there has never been a single manual as comprehensive as the Small Wars Manual.
22. Some charged with storming U.S. Capitol try to use defense that they were there to record history as journalists
KTLA · by Associated Press · April 18, 2021
Some irony here. I would bet most of these people hate the media and journalism with all their hearts.
23. How Hard Is It to Indoctrinate Religion-Soaked Special Operations Troops Into QAnon Extremist Views?
laprogressive.com · by Chris Rodda · April 16, 2021
This is getting out of hand. There are no more extremists in SOF than anywhere else in the military. In my 30 years in the military and more than 2 decades in SF I have never seen anything on the scale that is in the spin below. And this is also an insult to all the great Chaplains in our military.
But I guess we should expect this from a publication called LA Progressive.
24. Oath Keepers: How a militia group mobilized in plain sight for the assault on the Capitol
Excerpt: “Photos and phone records place Stewart Rhodes on the Capitol steps on January 6, communicating with Oath Keepers before they breached the doors. But no charges have been brought against him.
Rhodes declined to speak with 60 Minutes to tell his side of the story. He did appear again last month, on “Infowars,” this time from his car, saying he didn’t order Oath Keepers to enter the Capitol, but defended the members who are now in jail and criticized those who put them there.
One Oath Keeper has pled guilty and agreed to cooperate in the ongoing investigation as new evidence suggests members stashed weapons at a nearby hotel as part of a ‘quick-reaction force’ – evidence a federal judge says is among the most troubling he has seen. Sources tell us prosecutors are looking to build a case against Stewart Rhodes and possible separate charges against the national organization.
25. The Fort Bragg Murders
Rolling Stone · by Seth Harp · April 18, 2021
Some tragic and depressing data. I had no idea.
26. Special Operations News Update – Monday, April 19, 2021 | SOF News
sof.news · by SOF News · April 19, 2021
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“But in my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should “have his head examined,” as General MacArthur so delicately put it.”
– Robert M. Gates, February 25,2011 at West Point
“The brain consumes 20 percent of the body’s energy, far more than any other organ, while making up only 2 percent of an adult’s body weight.”
– Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History
“It is more important to out-think your enemy, than to outfight him.”
– attributed to Sun Tzu (though I have not found this quote in any of the 13 chapters and myriad translations. Wise words nonetheless)