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03/25/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

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03.25.2021 at 02:30pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

3.Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

5. Iran’s alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

 

1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

Axios · by Mike Allen

 

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

mwi.usma.edu · by Kevin Bilms · March 25, 2021

An important essay today.

America must embrace its irregular warfare capabilities and be able to compete in Great Power Competition where dominant ‘ ‘fight” is best described as political warfare.  Irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare (and by DODD 3000.7 and the IW annex to the NDS consists of CT, FID, UW, COIN< and stability operations).

Although I am heartened by the author citing some of Bob Jones important work on unconventional deterrence I am disappointed he did not point out one of the most important sentences in the interim guidance: “We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions.” Unconventional warfare is the foundation of irregular warfare and conventional warfare is at the root of the two SOF trinities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the second being the comparative advantages of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indefgeigenous forces and population.

 UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.

UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) un.

UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of a population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it is an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP.

I am heartened to see the Biden administration use unconventional warfare when there are so many antibodies out there against it.

But I also commend Congress for providing the best description of irregular warfare that will never be adopted by the doctrine gatekeepers on the Joint Staff.  In the 2018 NDAA it wrote: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

 

3. Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

I wonder if some poor congressional staffer will be fired for providing bad information to a Congressman.

 

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Excerpts: “While NGI remains in development, “our overall missile defense and defeat posture can be reoriented to regional threats, specifically that of complex and integrated air and missile attack from the likes of China,” Karako said.

After weeks of defense officials warning that North Korea could re-start its missile testing program after a long hiatus, the country’s reclusive leader, Kin Jong-Un, ordered a test firing of what a Biden administration official called a “short-range” missile system last weekend. The official, speaking with reporters late Tuesday, said the missile type isn’t subject to U.N. Security Council resolutions. Because it falls under the threshold of what concerns the international community, the official said that “it probably gives you an indication of where it falls on the spectrum of concern.”

The Missile Defense Agency has estimated that testing of the NGI could happen by the mid-2020s, and if all goes well they could begin to be put into silos by 2028.

 

5. Iran’s alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

Sure it seems far-fetched. But that is what analysts thought in 1995 when the Al Qaeda laptop was captured in Manila that described plans to kill the Pope and POTUS, bomb aircraft in flight (which did happen to a Northwest Airlines flight that had to make an emergency landing in Okinawa after a small device exploded), and use commercial aircraft to fly into buildings in the US.

As Sun Tzu said, “Do not assume the enemy will not attack.  Make yourself invincible.”

 

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

longwarjournal.org · by Caleb Weiss · March 23, 2021

Are we paying attention?

 

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

I strongly believe in our alliance structure. 

 

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 24, 2021

Video at the link.

 

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

The National Interest · by Chad Wolf · March 21, 2021

I understand we are down to about 50 Confucius Institutes from about 105. I am not sure if that is correct but I recently saw those numbers discussed.

We have to strike the right balance between academic freedom, protecting our values, and effectively employing our soft power for influence, and China’s nefarious activities using all means available to do damage to the US way of life.

 

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · March 24, 2021

We have not been sufficiently effective in stopping this scourge so we have to do better.

 

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

The National Interest · by Gordon G. Chang · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “China now has a crisis. “Once it slips below 1.5, a country falls into the trap of low fertility and is unlikely to recover,” said He Yafu to the Communist Party’s Global Times. China is already well below that figure.

Beijing does not believe China’s population will begin to decline until 2028. Some believe it in fact began contracting in 2018, something evident by falling births.

In any event, as the official China Daily stated in December, “the trends are irreversible.”

That’s not good for the People’s Republic of China. As analyst Andy Xie wrote in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post this month, “Population decline could end China’s civilization as we know it.”

 

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

sof.news · by Pat Carty · March 24, 2021

 

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

eastasiaforum.org · by Larry Diamond · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “The United States and its liberal democratic allies, such as Australia, Canada, the European Union and hopefully Japan, must work through diplomacy and aid flows to preserve civil society groups and independent media. These democracies will have more impact if they coordinate their activities and prioritise the diffusion of technologies to help democrats evade digital surveillance and censorship. In some instances — and sadly for Hong Kongers — established liberal democracies may need to provide a temporary or even long-term home for democrats at risk.

In the near term, the priority may need to be containing the democratic retreat and countering the rise of authoritarian China. In some countries, this means just trying to keep democrats alive. But the growing demands of young people in the region for more open and accountable government offer hope that this authoritarian moment will have an expiration date.”

 

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 24, 2021

Hmmm…not a good look for the regiment.

 

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

pna.gov.ph · by Priam Nepomuceno · March 24, 2021

 

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

AP · by Jim Gomez · March 21, 2021

Excerpt: “The militants have been considerably weakened by years of military offensives, surrenders and battle setbacks but remain a national security threat. They set off a security alarm in the region in recent years after they started venturing away from their jungle encampments in Sulu, a poverty wracked Muslim province in the largely Roman Catholic nation, and staged kidnappings in Malaysian coastal towns and targeted crews of cargo ships.”

 

——————-

 

“Deterrence is still fundamentally about influencing an actor’s decisions. It is about a solid policy foundation. It is about credible capabilities. It is about what the U.S. and our allies as a whole can bring to bear in both a military and a nonmilitary sense.”

– C. Robert Kehler

 

“Deterrence works.  Until it doesn’t.” 

– Sir Lawrence Freedman

 

“What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own.”

 – General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

 

 

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