08/20/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin
1. Rodong Sinmun praises WPK for bringing about great turn in destiny of country and people
2. Political decision to be recorded as another special event in militant course of glorious WPK on convening 8thCongress of WPK 6th Plenary Meeting of 7th Central Committee of WPK held
3. 6 Russian military aircraft briefly violate S. Korea’s air defense zone
4. UNICEF: North Korea closed shipping route with China
5. Seoul revs up efforts to improve inter-Korean ties
6. Toward responsible liberalism (South Korea)
7. ‘Time to send aged NK spies, POWs back to North’
8. N.K. to unveil new 5-year economic development plan at rare party congress next year
9. Top Chinese official won’t meet Moon during Korea Visit
10. North Korean malicious cyber activity | CISA
11. FOLLOW-UP: North Korea’s nuclear, chemical arsenals are growing: U.S. Army
12. North Korea’s leader had big economic plans. He admits they’ve failed.
13. Kim Jong-un delegated partial authority to sister: spy agency*** (Note important comments)
14. Scott Snyder on Trump, South Korea, and ‘America-First’ Alliance Policy
15. George Clooney-backed investigative org exposes North Korean banking scandal in DR Congo
16. Anti-Japan nationalism taking hold in Korea
17. The 8th WPK congress announcement: strengthened economic control to come?
18. Kim Jong-un’s dire warning on economy hints at growing crisis
19. N. Hamgyong Province faces potential shortage of vegetables following rains
1. Rodong Sinmun praises WPK for bringing about great turn in destiny of country and people
This is the KCNA report of the Rodong Sinmun article on the WPK meeting. No one does better “flowery worded” propaganda than the regime’s Propaganda and Agitation Department: “The article says that the exploits of our Party, which has turned the country into an independent powerful country and invincible socialist nation in the global spotlights, made the people masters of their destiny and gave them the dignity and honor of pacemakers carving out the future of mankind, will shine for all ages along with the steady prosperity of Kim Il Sung’s nation and Kim Jong Il’s Korea.”
2. Political decision to be recorded as another special event in militant course of glorious WPK on convening 8th Congress of WPK 6th Plenary Meeting of 7th Central Committee of WPK held
kcnawatch.org · August 20, 2020
The Propaganda and Agitation Department needs better headline editors.
Looks like the crucial issue is the economy and the decision to convene the 8th Party Congress and present a new 5 year economic plan. I think we were all expecting something nuclear or ICBM related – (though we should keep in mind all warfare, including especially political warfare, is based on deception so we should not be lulled into a false sense of complacency).
But here is the summary of the meeting (let me know if you can make sense of it): “He said that the Political Bureau of the Party Central Committee suggested convening the 8th Congress of the WPK to analyze and review in a comprehensive, three-dimensional and anatomical way the deviations and shortcomings in the work for the implementation of the decisions made at the 7th Congress of the Party and to discuss and decide on the strategic tasks for the Party and the government in the new phase of struggle in the crucial period of our revolution.” … “He said that the 8th Congress would review this year’s work and the work of the Central Committee of the Party in the period under review and set forth a new 5-year plan for national economic development including next year’s orientation of work.
3. 6 Russian military aircraft briefly violate S. Korea’s air defense zone
en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · August 20, 2020
Well that was very nice of the Russians. I would like to know what kind of ROK-Japan coordination took place as the article notes after 20 minutes in the ROK ADIZ (around DokDo) they transited to the Japanese ADIZ.
4. UNICEF: North Korea closed shipping route with China
upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · August 19, 2020
The policy decisions of Kim Jong-un are responsible for the difficulties in providing humanitarian assistance to the Korean people living in the North. “U.S. experts on North Korea told Radio Free Asia the measures pose even greater challenges for international organizations sending aid supplies to the isolated country. Closures only exacerbate the public health and food security crisis in North Korea, they said.”
5. Seoul revs up efforts to improve inter-Korean ties
The Korea Times · August 19, 2020
The doubling down by the Moon administration begins. I really wonder what are Minister Lee’s new ideas. How is he going to build an environment conducive to bilateral ties with the North when the North does not want to do so? I fear since sanctions relief is not on the table it will have to be something under the table. But I wonder how long it will be before Kim Jong-un slams the door in the South’s face, figuratively. And most importantly, if North Korea continues to act the way it has, will the Moon administration reassess its assumptions and adjust its strategy? The main (erroneous) assumption being that the North wants peace and is willing to negotiate to bring it about.
6. Toward responsible liberalism (South Korea)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Byung-yeong
A very interesting OpEd. Don’t let the use of the word liberalism distract you. This is really about how the government should view and act toward North Korea. Key excerpt: “Only a true liberal ponders deeply about North Korea’s denuclearization. Only a responsible liberal clarifies that without denuclearization, peace and prosperity can never be achieved. President Moon checks neither of these boxes. In his Aug. 15 Independence Day address, Moon made no mention of denuclearization and blathered on about peace, prosperity and cooperation with North Korea.”
7. ‘Time to send aged NK spies, POWs back to North’
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · August 19, 2020
I do think this should be done. It is the right thing to do from a humanitarian perspective. Seoul should take the moral high ground here. It will not get anything in return from the North and it should not hold out for some of kind of deal. Just do the right thing because it is the right thing to do (Kant).
8. N.K. to unveil new 5-year economic development plan at rare party congress next year
en.yna.co.kr · by Koh Byung-joon · August 20, 2020
A question for all the economic-historians if there is such a discipline: When has a communist 5-year economic plan ever been successful and accomplished its objectives?
9. Top Chinese official won’t meet Moon during Korea Visit
Perhaps a small thing but I think it is important for Moon not to meet with him.
10. North Korean malicious cyber activity | CISA
US government warnings.
Please see these two links:
https://us-cert.cisa.gov/northkorea
https://us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/analysis-reports/ar20-232a
11. FOLLOW-UP: North Korea’s nuclear, chemical arsenals are growing: U.S. Army
I am resending the article below with new comments from Robert Collins. I think the doctrine writers got a little over their heads on the strategic analysis. I think the tactical and operational aspects of the manual are good, but I think they missed the mark on the strategic level. Regardless this is an excellent tutorial on Songun from Robert Collins.
Original Message and my original comments:
It is funny the Joongang Ilbo used the graphic below. A Korea hand emailed me last night and pointed out this graphic is wrong. Perhaps he will provide me with a critique I can share. I have already referenced the obvious on Songun – it is military first politics. It is not a policy – it is much more than. It is about political control. Let me share a short excerpt from one of my mentors, Robert Collins, and his report on the Organization and Guidance Department he wrote for the Committee for Human rights in North Korea.
North Korea’s ORGANIZATION AND GUIDANCE DEPARTMENT – The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial
12. North Korea’s leader had big economic plans. He admits they’ve failed.
nytimes.com · by Choe Sang-hun
Again, when has a communist 5 year economic plan ever been successful?
13. Kim Jong-un delegated partial authority to sister: spy agency*** (Note important comments)
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · August 20, 2020
I am sure there will be more analysis on this. However, my good friend and mentor, Robert Collins had this to say about Kim Yo-jong. This single paragraph is a critical assessment that we must pay attention to.
14. Scott Snyder on Trump, South Korea, and ‘America-First’ Alliance Policy
thediplomat.com · by Shannon Tiezzi · August 19, 2020
Important insights from Scott. And for all those who think a Biden Administration will transform Korea policy for the better there is this warning: “The election of Joe Biden would ease some America-first influences in U.S. government policy and bring a renewed focus to cooperative settlement of burden sharing and alliance management issues. But it is possible to imagine greater tensions between the United States and North Korea under a Biden administration, making the task of coordinating policies with Moon and future South Korean administrations both more important and potentially more difficult.”
15. George Clooney-backed investigative org exposes North Korean banking scandal in DR Congo
deadline.com · by Tom Grater · August 19, 2020
I did not see this one coming (North Korean activities, sure but George Clooney’s organization calling them out?).
The 22 page report can be downloaded here.
16. Anti-Japan nationalism taking hold in Korea
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · August 20, 2020
Not a good sign. Note the argument for changing the national anthem. Truly sad but of course South Korea is not the only country where people argue about changing the national anthem because of past history.
17. The 8th WPK congress announcement: strengthened economic control to come?
nkeconwatch.com · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein
18. Kim Jong-un’s dire warning on economy hints at growing crisis
theedgemarkets.com · August 20, 2020
The difference between the Arduous March or great famine of 1994-1996 when the economy and public distribution system collapsed and as many as three million Koreans may have died from the severe conditions and now. The regime was “saved” by a large infusion of cash during the Sunshine Policy period. Due to the current sanctions regime that is less likely to happen today. The article below reminds us we need to pay close attention to the indications and warnings of instability. I am hoping that the indications and warnings laid out by Robert Collins’ in his seven phases of regime instability and collapse are still being used by the command in Korea.
19. N. Hamgyong Province faces potential shortage of vegetables following rains
dailynk.com · by Kang Mi Jin · August 20, 2020
The “normal” level of suffering is getting worse.
———–
“In each succeeding war there is a tendency to proclaim as something new the principles under which it is conducted. Not only those who have never studied or experienced the realities of war, but also professional soldiers frequently fall into the error. But the principles of warfare as I learned them at West Point remain unchanged.”
– John J. Pershing, ‘My Experiences in the World War’
“Patience strengthens the spirit, sweetens the temper, stifles anger, extinguishes envy, subdues pride, bridles the tongue.”
– George Horne
“The primary purpose of the Rolex is not as a timepiece but rather as a life insurance policy. When the situation goes pear-shaped and you’ve somehow made it to the airport, the Rolex buys you a seat on the last flight out of Heart of Darkness International Airport. As your aircraft circles the city, you look down at the rising columns of black smoke and imagine the scene downtown in the city square where they’re chopping the few remaining Westerners up into monkey meat, you look at your wrist where your treasured timepiece used to be and you think 2 things: A) ‘Well I guess the Rolex finally paid for itself,’ and B) ‘I can always buy another watch . . .'”
– Unknown