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08/03/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

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08.03.2020 at 01:38pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.         

1. Hong Kong issues arrest warrant for U.S. citizen under new national security law

2. Where the System May Break (Election Wargame)

3. How ISIS Made Money on Facebook

4. 75 years after atomic bombs fell on Japan, these authors say there’s more to the story

5. The Worm is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO

6. Retired general appointed to Trump administration in position that won’t require confirmation

7. Sending Special Operations Forces into the Great-Power Competition

8. 30 years after our ‘endless wars’ in the Middle East began, still no end in sight

9. Security for Whom? The Case for a Decolonial IR

10. WHO calls COVID-19 ‘once-in-a-century health crisis’

11. ‘Clean Up This Mess’: The Chinese Thinkers Behind Xi’s Hard Line

12. Army Guard begins to reorganize force into eight divisions to prepare for possible fights with Russia and China

13. Watch: Chinese scientist claims Covid-19 started in ‘military lab’ after fleeing to US

14. US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands

15. Debate begins for who’s first in line for COVID-19 vaccine

16. Washington isn’t listening to the Air Force and Space Force

17. Chinese Propaganda Campaign Blames Pandemic on U.S. Army Facility Closed in 1969

18. Army’s Top General Says He’s Reassured Allies That US Troops Will Stay Out of Policing

19. Managing Chaos: Biosecurity in a Post-COVID-19 America

20. Operation Burnham: the New Zealand military’s self-inflicted wounds will not heal by themselves

 

1. Hong Kong issues arrest warrant for U.S. citizen under new national security law

CNBC · by Eric Baculinao and Adela Suliman · August 2, 2020

I am surprised it took this long.  I fear for all US citizens in Hong Kong.

 

2. Where the System May Break (Election Wargame)

defenseone.com · by David Frum · July 31, 2020

Every government official, federal, state, and local should be committed to ensure the integrity of our election system.  This should not be a partisan issue (but I know that is a naive thought).

 

3. How ISIS Made Money on Facebook

defenseone.com · by Jenna Scatena

Follow the money.  I just did not think you would have to follow-it on Facebook.

 

4. 75 years after atomic bombs fell on Japan, these authors say there’s more to the story

dailynews.com · by Stuart Miller · August 2, 2020

Interesting review essay of some new books.  Some interesting histories.

 

5. The Worm is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO

rusi.org · July 31, 2020

Spoiler alert: Turkey.

 

6. Retired general appointed to Trump administration in position that won’t require confirmation

The Washington Post

I guess President Trump really wants BG Tata in the Pentagon.

 

7. Sending Special Operations Forces into the Great-Power Competition

Small Wars Journal· by Tim Nichols

I am reminded of some of the thinking that took place in the 1980’s when SOF in particular SF were trying to ensure relevance.  The author seems to assume the only employment of military forces will be in conventional conflict and he of course wants to have SOF shift focus to support that.  

But great power competition is so much more and there is going to be a lot of conflict and competition below the threshold of conventional combat operations. 

The author does not mention any of the SOF “trinities” and the comparative advantage of SOF.  Irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the comparative advantages of SOF in influence, governance and support to indigenous forces and populations to support the national security and defense strategies.

 

8. 30 years after our ‘endless wars’ in the Middle East began, still no end in sight

The Brookings Institution · by Bruce Riedel · July 27, 2020

What is the long arc of history bending toward?  More endless war?

 

9.  Security for Whom? The Case for a Decolonial IR

georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org · by Emma Jouenne · August 1, 2020

Lots of schools of thought in security. Everyone in the security field should be a “gatecrasher.”

 

10. WHO calls COVID-19 ‘once-in-a-century health crisis’

donga.com ·August 3, 2020

 

11. ‘Clean Up This Mess’: The Chinese Thinkers Behind Xi’s Hard Line

The New York Times · by Chris Buckley · August 2, 2020

This conclusion quote seems to explain it all:  “Sorry, the goal now is not Westernization; it’s the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

 

12. Army Guard begins to reorganize force into eight divisions to prepare for possible fights with Russia and China

Stars and Stripes

Are we itching to violate the Princess Bride’s admonition and have a land war in Asia?

 

13. Watch: Chinese scientist claims Covid-19 started in ‘military lab’ after fleeing to US

nzherald.co.nz

Video at the link

 

14. US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · July 31, 2020

Probably one of the hardest things to do is measure deterrence and risk because it is really based on human psychology and decision making.  We can have the best algorithms and AI but it is difficult to predict what kind of decision, Xi or Putin or the regimes in Iran and north Korea are going to do and to know what really deters them and what is their threshold for pain.  But the analysis must be done (or attempted) even if it is not an exact science.

 

15. Debate begins for who’s first in line for COVID-19 vaccine

AP · by Lauran Neergaard · August 2, 2020

Debate may not be a strong enough word.  When the plans for vaccination are released and the priorities established it will probably generate controversy on a level we have not seen lately

 

16. Washington isn’t listening to the Air Force and Space Force

Defense News · by Col. Keith Zuegel (ret.) · July 31, 2020

I just hope it will listen to the real Space Force and Air Force and not the ones on the Netflix show “Space Force.”  That show is the most irreverent satire I have seen in a long time.

 

17.  Chinese Propaganda Campaign Blames Pandemic on U.S. Army Facility Closed in 1969

freebeacon.com · by Yuichiro Kakutani · August 2, 2020

Yes, but…  Fort Detrick was never closed.  The best propaganda always has elements of truth. Few are going to parse it and note that it was only the offensive bio-weapons lab that was declared closed in 1969.  But the basic idea of the article is on the right track – China will admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations. 

 

18. Army’s Top General Says He’s Reassured Allies That US Troops Will Stay Out of Policing

military.com · by Richard Sisk · August 1, 2020

It is interesting that our allies are concerned about this.  But here is the buried lede: “In the Indo-Pacific region, the Army’s top priority is developing long-range, precision-fire artillery and missiles to counter China, and securing basing rights from allies for the weapons systems, McConville said.”

  

19.  Managing Chaos: Biosecurity in a Post-COVID-19 America

thestrategybridge.org · by Bilva Chandra and Andrew Gonzalez · August 3, 2020

We need to be conducting the AAR for COVID-19 with the idea that this is a rehearsal for a bio-weapons attack on many levels – look at the strategic effects – crippling our economy – to the tactical and operational issues for our military – can we learn to “fight through” actual attacks in the future?  Our adversaries are looking at this and trying to determine the efficacy of employing biological weapons (probably not a man made COVID attack but biological weapons on some scale if they believe they can achieve. an advantage in support of strategic objectives.

 

20. Operation Burnham: the New Zealand military’s self-inflicted wounds will not heal by themselves

theconversation.com · by Alexander Gillespie

We can all learn from this.

 

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“Does what happened keep you from acting with justice, generosity, self-control, sanity, prudence, honesty, humility, or straightforwardness?” 

– Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

 

“Until you learn to teach yourself you will never be taught by others.” 

–  J .F.C. Fuller

 

“The problem with smart people is that they are used to seeking and finding the right answer; unfortunately, in strategy there is no single right answer to find. Strategy requires making choices about an uncertain future. It is not possible, no matter how much of the ocean you boil, to discover the one right answer. There isn’t one. In fact, even after the fact, there is no way to determine that one’s strategy choice was “right,” because there is no way to judge the relative quality of any path against all the paths not actually chosen. There are no double-blind experiments in strategy.”

– Roger L. Martin, Harvard Business Review, June 12, 2014

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