05/27/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.
SWJEd note: we cheated here. Posting on 5/28 night but back dating to 5/27 to not rock the chronological boat. Only the truly OCD will care, or do this in the first place.
1. U.S. nuclear forces are ready and deter all adversaries, including N. Korea: Pentagon official
2. Why do Americans worry about North Korea?
3. Why Trump and Kim Are Stuck in a Waiting Game
4. Why American-North Korean Relations Will Be Stuck in the Status Quo for Now
5. Unification minister to visit Han River estuary to renew commitment to inter-Korean cooperation
6. South Korea sees biggest jump in virus cases in seven weeks
7. Spike in South Korea virus cases shows perils of reopening
8. N.Korean Media Warn Against Corrupting Foreign Arts
9. Kim Jong-un ‘hires body double over assassination fears’ claims bizarre theory
10. North Korea: Defector’s torture scars after attempts to flee Kim Jong-un regime exposed
11. North Koreans Living in the South are Developing a Political Voice
12. Expert calls for proposing video family reunions with N. Korea to mark 20th anniversary of summit
13. [Interview] Inter-Korean dialogue needs to restart when National Assembly convenes in June
14. Shaping South Korea’s middle-power future
1. U.S. nuclear forces are ready and deter all adversaries, including N. Korea: Pentagon official
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · May 27, 2020
Strategic reassurance. Strategic resolve.
2. Why do Americans worry about North Korea?
The Hill · by Doug Bandow, Opinion Contributor · May 25, 2020
This is a dangerous argument from Mr. Bandow. “Washington should return “defense” to its original meaning, defense of America rather than the rest of the world. Military guarantees to South Korea are dangerous, putting Americans at nuclear risk. It is well past time to focus on America’s security.”
It is a vital US national interest to prevent war on the Korean peninsula. The presence of US forces deters a north Korean attack (conventional or nuclear). What happens on the Korean peninsula war, instability, or regime collapse, (whether US forces are present or not) will have global effects and directly affect the US. Furthermore, our alliance structure is a critical instrument of US national power. We will have a hard time defending our homeland without our alliance structure. The isolationism that Mr. Bandow seeks will not result in a safe and secure America.
3. Why Trump and Kim Are Stuck in a Waiting Game
The National Interest · by Francesca Frassineti · May 26, 2020
Yes, I think it is logical that neither side has any incentive to change course in 2020. What happens after November is surely election dependent. But the lack of flexibility charge (against both sides) is always troubling. I know it is not fashionable to say this but flexibility to most pundits only means one thing: the US must provide sanctions relief. But the US has made a number of attempts to have real negotiations, at the working level, and Kim Jong-un has avoided any work of any substance.
But the regime has shown no flexibility and nowhere is this more evident than the negative answers to these questions. Actions speak louder than words.
Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy – divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
4. Why American-North Korean Relations Will Be Stuck in the Status Quo for Now
The National Interest · by Jacob Bogle · May 26, 2020
As the subtitle says Pyongyang’s interests are clear. Let me provide my summary of the regime’s interests and strategy.
Kim Family Regime Strategy
* Vital Interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime
* Strategic Aim: Unification of the Peninsula
* Subversion, coercion, extortion, use of force
* Key Condition: Split the ROK/US Alliance
* US forces off the Peninsula
* “Divide to Conquer” – Divide the Alliance to conquer the ROK
* Desire: Recognition as nuclear power – negotiate SALT/START-like treaties
* Nuclear weapons key to deterrence – Hwang Jong Yop
* NK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons
* NK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons
North Korea Negotiating Strategy
1. Change relationship – Declaration of the end of the war (end of hostile US policy – i.e., Peace regime)
2. Sanctions relief (permanent removal)
3. Denuclearization of the South (end of alliance, removal of US troops, end of nuclear umbrella over ROK and Japan)
4. Then negotiate dismantlement of the north’s and ICBM programs
* In Short:
* NK: change relationship, build trust, then talk about denuclearizing (without doing so)
* US: denuclearize the north, build trust, change relationship.
5. Unification minister to visit Han River estuary to renew commitment to inter-Korean cooperation
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 27, 2020
INTRA – Intra-Korean cooperation. If you focus on unification, then it is intra-Korea cooperation. If you want to remain divided with two countries, then it is inter-Korean cooperation (and yes I know most journalism guidelines call for use inter-Korean.
Note the comments about the September 19th, 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement. The agreement was intended to be a trust or confidence building framework. despite it being very one sided with the ROK and the alliance providing the majority of confidence building measures the North’s response and lack of implementation of other than the removal of a handful of guard posts and disarming the soldiers in the JSA (Panmunjom) shows the North does not negotiation in good faith and has no intention of seriously trying to reduce tensions. This is because a key element of North Korea strategy is blackmail diplomacy – the use of provocation and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions. We should look at the efforts of South Korea. We can be critical or suspicious of the Moon Administration’s intent toward north Korea but if we look at each of its attempts at peace and reconciliation as a test of north Korean sincerity and intent, we have seen Kim fail the test time and time again. He has no intention of participating in any aspect of President Moon’s vision other than to exploit where he can in support of his “long con” supported by his long-term political warfare strategy.
6. South Korea sees biggest jump in virus cases in seven weeks
24matins.uk · May 27, 2020
The true test is how the South deals with these types of outbreaks. This is a very difficult virus and it is not going to be easily subdued.
7. Spike in South Korea virus cases shows perils of reopening
The Washington Post · by Kim Tong-Hyung, Jill Lawless and Elaine Kurtenbach | AP
We should keep in mind that South Korea never really closed. But we can learn lessons from the South. This illustrates the importance of social distancing and proper protection and the most important rule: “don’t do stupid s**t.”
No country can go back to the way it was before the coronavirus. However, we have to learn to live, work, and operate in these new conditions which are likely to persist for months if not years. Rather than arguing about opening or closing (or wearing masks or not wearing masks) we need to develop the most effective processes and procedures to be able to continue to survive and thrive in this new normal environment.
8. N.Korean Media Warn Against Corrupting Foreign Arts
english.chosun.com · May 27, 2020 11:24
It does not get any clearer than this. One of the major threats to the legitimacy and survival of the Kim family regime is information. This is why we need a comprehensive information and influence activities campaign. Please see our chapter on Information and influence activities in our report Maximum Pressure 2.0 A Plan for North Korea here: https://www.fdd.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/fdd-report-maximum-pressure-2-a-plan-for-north-korea.pdf
9. Kim Jong-un ‘hires body double over assassination fears’ claims bizarre theory
dailystar.co.uk · by Anthony Blair · May 26, 2020
Conspiracy theories do not just exist in the US or with Q-Anon. The article even says Kim Yo-jong is using a body double. Yes we can chuckle about this (I certainly do) but we should also realize this does illustrate the regime’s paranoia and its focus on regime survival (not survival of north Korea, the nation-state, or the Korean people in the north -but survival of the regime). I would think there are a number of ways to take advantage of this paranoia.
The other issue is the use of a body double if in fact Kim becomes incapacitated or dies. Will this body double “buy time” to work through the transition process that will likely be complex if there is no designated successor?
10. North Korea: Defector’s torture scars after attempts to flee Kim Jong-un regime exposed
Express · by Josh Saunders · May 26, 2020
We just cannot over-emphasize the evil nature of the Kim family regime. And we should never forget this: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
11. North Koreans Living in the South are Developing a Political Voice
This was published before the unfortunate statements from Ji and Thae. There remarks have sparked a lot of criticism and personal attacks. Some comments included that we should stop listening to escapees (defectors). Nothing could be more wrong. We need their insights, knowledge, and perspective. Predictions are a different story and predicting Kim Jong-un’s death with such apparent certainty was an unfortunate and unforced error. I am sure Ji Seong-ho will not make that mistake again. They can and must play a vital role in the reunification process so we should not dwell on these mistakes.
This is very important on a number of levels. First that escapees (defectors) can participate in and play a role in the South Korean political process. Second, this sets an example for the Korean people living in the north. It can educate them and give them hope. This needs to be part of an information and influence campaign and Ji and Thae (and other escapees) need to be used as key communicators providing information to the Korean people in the north.
12. Expert calls for proposing video family reunions with N. Korea to mark 20th anniversary of summit
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 27, 2020
This is just another example of the evil nature of the Kim family regime. These families have been separated only because of the policy decisions of Kim Jong-un and his father and grandfather. There is no excuse for the separation.
We should also recall the June 15th declaration in 2000 mentioned in the article. This declaration like so many others read well and sounds like it could make a difference regarding peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula. But it is just another example in the seven decades history of the division of the peninsula and failed agreements on the north Korean sides and illustrates the true nature and the intent of the regime. Lastly, we should recall how the 2000 Summit came about with the north extorting the South to make it happen.
13. [Interview] Inter-Korean dialogue needs to restart when National Assembly convenes in June
hankyoreh · May 25, 2020 16:45 KST
Moon Chung-in is part of the blame America for north Korea crowd. He is no friend of the ROK/US alliance and what he says should be taken with a grain of salt. But we have to listen to what he says because he has the ear of President Moon. He has no understanding of the OPCON Transition. He says the ROK has “to recover wartime OPCON from the US” – this is pure BS – the ROK has co-equal operational control of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command right now and will have the same when the OPCON transition process is complete and there is a ROK general in command of the ROK/US CFC. On the other hand, I am somewhat happy to see he recognizes the importance of exercises to the OPCON transition process. He goes on to parrot Joseph Nye’s viewpoint of a post-COVID world.
14. Shaping South Korea’s middle-power future
eastasiaforum.org · by Leif-Eric Easley · May 27, 2020
South Korea is middle power and has the potential to be a great middle power. But as the author notes, it faces domestic (political polarization) and foreign (China and Japan) challenges.
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“Whatever it is that the government does, sensible Americans would prefer that the government does it to somebody else. This is the idea behind foreign policy.”
– P. J. O’Rourke
“A strong, unwavering relationship between the U.S. and its allies Japan and South Korea is necessary for the national and economic security of all three countries.”
– Lois Frankel
“The more often a stupidity is repeated, the more it gets the appearance of wisdom.”
– Voltaire