Philippines Struggles to Suppress ISIS-Linked Rebels as Foreign Fighters Found
Philippines Struggles to Suppress ISIS-Linked Rebels as Foreign Fighters Found by Jake Maxwell Watts, Wall Street Journal
Philippine troops accidentally killed 11 of their comrades as they battled Islamist militants, the latest in a series of incidents illustrating how the military is struggling to contain the threat of rebel groups.
Soldiers are fighting street by street in the southern city of Marawi with the Muslim-extremist Maute group, which raised the black Islamic State flag there more than a week ago after authorities attempted and failed to arrest the leader of an allied faction.
The friendly fire incident announced Thursday, in which an airstrike Wednesday used unguided ordnance after the military ran short of guided missiles, came as the government said eight of the militants killed in fighting there were citizens of Saudi Arabia, Yemen and other foreign countries. That announcement bolstered fears that the complexion of the Philippines’ militant uprising was becoming increasingly international, as Islamic State, also known as ISIS, loses territory in Iraq and Syria.
The threat is all the more severe given the longstanding failure of the Philippine military to eradicate the many extremist groups that recruit from the poor, marginalized Muslim communities in the jungles of the southern island of Mindanao. The region, which includes Marawi, has spawned and supported myriad insurgencies dating back to at least the 1970s. Successive governments have promised to bring peace to Mindanao, but none have.
Security experts fear that disparate extremists are coalescing in Mindanao under the Islamic State banner, establishing themselves in a country with a weak rule of law, thriving illegal arms trade and ready supply of brutal criminal factions…
This saddens me after all the great work done by airmen assigned to JSOTF-P (i.e., Carlos O and his team) to improve CAS capabilities of the PAF 10 years ago. Training is perishable and if it is not sustained you will have incidents like this.
QUOTE The friendly fire incident announced Thursday, in which an airstrike Wednesday used unguided ordnance after the military ran short of guided missiles, came as the government said eight of the militants killed in fighting there were citizens of Saudi Arabia, Yemen and other foreign countries. That announcement bolstered fears that the complexion of the Philippines’ militant uprising was becoming increasingly international, as Islamic State, also known as ISIS, loses territory in Iraq and Syria. END QUOTE
It is interesting that so little of the discussion around the Maute Group and the Marawi siege is being connected back to the Mamasapano incident 2+ years ago and the subsequent scuttling of the second round of Government – MILF peace negotiations. I wrote this on SWJ at that time:
I don’t see ISIS as a major factor… certainly the more radical factions (not all of them young) identify with ISIS, but if ISIS wasn’t there they’d identify with something else. If this agreement falls apart, as seems likely, I do expect some significant changes in the MILF and in the separatist movement in general, with the radicals and those who see negotiation as pointless gaining traction and the negotiation-minded factions losing traction. This will be the second time that the negotiators have signed an agreement only to have the Philippine government reject it; if negotiation does not bring results it’s hard to see why they would continue on that course.
I would stand by the ISIS comment. The connection is certainly there, but it is driven less by any ideological affiliation than by the Maute Group’s need to establish themselves as a presence. They will affiliate with and declare loyalty to whoever is the international Islamist threat du jour.
For me the ISIS connection is less of interest than the extent to which the repeated failures of negotiation are driving a re-radicalization of the MILF rank and file. The formal MILF leadership is still invested in the peace process, but that’s been going on a long time with nothing to show for it. The formal MILF leadership has little enough control over its field units at the best of times; given those failures it is not at all unlikely that MILF fighters will gravitate toward more radical groups that are seen to be more actively challenging the government.
If the declaration of martial law in Mindanao leads to mass arrests, killings, harassment and abuse of the Muslim populations that are accessible to Government forces, it’s hard to see how the MILF leadership will be able to maintain their current stance; they will have to take up arms again or watch as the followers move off to the more radical groups, leaving them irrelevant.
It’s not a pretty picture, and I hope I’m wrong.
The Marawi fighting is now in its third week, and is blowing up into something much more serious than initially expected. I’m told (personal sources, not media, and potentially erroneous) that the Philippine Marines lost 13 KIA, 29 WIA, 1 MIA on June 9 alone. The military is now estimating that there are up to 500 fighters from different groups, including foreign fighters, entrenched in Marawi. The Air Force is already (also according to private sources) running low on key munitions; this kind of protracted battle is not in their logistic game plan. A US P3 was seen overflying the city yesterday, presumably gathering intel.
Hard to see where it’s going, but this was clearly planned in advance and involves coordination between multiple groups.
Interesting times.