ISIS Turning Into a Guerrilla Army, Top General Warns
ISIS Turning Into a Guerrilla Army, Top General Warns by Nancy Youssef, The Daily Beast
The capital of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq is now under assault. But ISIS isn’t going anywhere. Instead, the terror group is beginning to rebrand itself from a “caliphate” to an insurgency, a top U.S. general fighting ISIS said Wednesday.
It’s much more than a change of name, or even a shift in tactics. It could well mean that there will be no “lasting defeat” of ISIS, even if it loses control of Iraq’s second-largest city, despite Secretary of Defense Ash Carter’s claim of such a victory just four days ago, when the Iraqi campaign for Mosul began. After two years of either training local forces to fight ISIS or hitting the terror group with airstrikes, U.S. officials said they believe it still could evolve into the kind of threat that has plagued Iraq since shortly after the 2003 U.S. invasion.
Fighting that insurgency cost as much as $2 trillion, according to one estimate, and the lives of nearly 5,000 American troops. At its peak, 170,000-plus forces were required to weaken that uprising. It would be the most bitter of ironies if, years later, Iraq once again devolved into a guerrilla war…
WHY is it that when three major ME/Syrian SMEs not tied to major DC think tanks and or DoD/DoS write weeks ago and post the internal statements of IS leaders to back up their analysis that owning territory or not owning territory does not mean the end of IS and that it is back to guerrilla warfare….WEEKS ago…WHY is it that many in the DoD/DoS and the Obama WH cannot seem to remember that QJBR/AQI/IS came out of the guerrilla phase two Mao model in 2003 along with a large Sunni Salafist insurgency element ….seems we forgot that small fact…so going back to their roots is not a problem for IS and how in the heck is ISF to control a full scale guerrilla war based in the Sunni areas directed against the Iraqi state and ISF….
But outside the world of social media and a few ME think tanks located in the ME….these articles got little to no take up in the US MSM nor in DC….
BUT let a US General state what they stated literally weeks ago AND it makes MSM headlines…..and anyone care to explain the disconnect????
A blinding flash of “no kidding, sir.” I’ve been putting out for months that any military defeat of ISIL will merely convert the current civil war back into a fragmented revolutionary conflict and restore AQ as the leading NSA UW leader in the region. If the Pentagon would have listened to the purpose given by the Whitehouse for this campaign, and not just the task (“defeat”) we would be In a very different place right now. Know the type of war you are in, and when the success of your campaign will naturally convert it into a different type of conflict.
The ultimate political objective of the U.S./the West is to transform outlying states and societies — such as those of the Greater Middle East — more along modern western political, economic, social and value lines.
It is in this context that we must understand the President’s current campaign to first degrade, and then to ultimately destroy, ISIL.
https://blogs.state.gov/stories/2016/02/25/president-obama-discusses-global-campaign-degrade-and-destroy-isil
In this specific regard (to wit: by knowing that the ultimate political goal of the U.S./the West is to transform outlying states and societies — such as those of Iraq and Syria — more along modern western lines) to understand the following comments from our President. (Which are found at the bottom of the item linked immediately above):
“The brutality of ISIL is no match for the yearning of millions who want to live in security and dignity.” He continued, “With allies and partners and the service of our dedicated personnel, our diplomats, our civilians, and our military, we will destroy this barbaric terrorist organization and continue to stand with people across the region who seek a better and a safer future.”
Herein, the “better and safer future” — that the “people across the region seek” — is, from the standpoint of the U.S./the West, only one which mirrors the way of life, the way of governance and the values, attitudes and beliefs of the modern western world.
It is in this context that we might understand why:
a. The current “resistance to unwanted western transformation” entities — such as ISIL, AQ, etc. — will continue to morph. (This, so as to be able to continue the “resistance to unwanted western transformation” fight against the U.S./the West.) And, why:
b. The U.S./the West will need to morph also. (This, so as to [a] be able to overcome these such — ever-changing — “resistance to unwanted western transformation” methods and activities of our current and future enemies and to [b] achieve, in spite of same, the transformation of these outlying states and societies — more along modern western political, economic, social and value lines — as we desire/require.)
Q: Thus, a “generational battle” — to overcome this such “native/civilizational resistance,” and to achieve, in spite of same, the transformation of these outlying states and societies more along the alien and profane political, economic, social and value lines of a foreign civilization (to wit: that of the U.S./the West)?
A: Yep. And obviously. This, given that “universal values” (neither the Soviet/the communist version back-in-the-day, nor the U.S./Western version today) appear to exist.
http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/523/html
New Masters of Revolutionary Warfare: The Islamic State Movement (2002-2016)
Beyond stating the obvious, which is that revolutionary movements tend to ebb and flow over time based on various conditions in the field, I think his principle point is that a counterterrorism strategy is insufficient in countering this type of warfare. He argues we have become overly focused on foreign fighters, while true is only part of the picture. We have also become overly endeavored with networks, and the belief that if we remove a few critical nodes the network will collapse. Like many tactics, they look on paper or PowerPoint charts, but in practice they fall short. Getting it wrong isn’t bad in itself, that is to be expected in any war during the initial phases. What is bad, is failure to learn after more than 15 years of doing this. It seems our approach is now engrained in our CT doctrine as “The Way.” It’s a way, a way to nowhere.
The proverbial “Pandora’s box” has been now truly opened and it will never be closed for the next two decades and the Obama WH has contributed greatly to this….”non action” is in fact “action”…..
EXACTLY what IS wants…fits their narrative to the letter…..
Kurdish authorities have issued an order of deportation of all the Arab refugees from Kirkuk.
السلطات الكردية في…
http://fb.me/31vjgCB3W
If true, exactly the sort of political impact #IS was hoping to have on the way down, lays the ground for recovery.
IS claims it will ride out “defeat” in the desert and return. Not an empty boast
http://bit.ly/2euqHMs#
“The [Shia militia] flags are rankling Sunnis as well as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters taking part in [#MosulOp].”
http://on.wsj.com/2dU3hg5
Sectarianism which has been unleashed by the FULL Obama/Rhodes/Kerry tilt to Iran as the next regional hegemon is going to haunt the US for the next 20-30 years in the ME….
Well worth reading….
Hassan Hassan @hxhassan
New:
Will ISIS defend Mosul or will it live to fight another day? The binary is misleading. A third choice exists:
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/co…o-retake-mosul
The dangers of a protracted battle to retake Mosul
Hassan Hassan
October 23, 2016 Updated: October 23, 2016 05:23 PM
Quote:
The thing about military strategies, an American general said recently, is that they tend to crumble once soldiers begin to engage the enemy. This can apply to the Mosul strategy: protracted fighting could lead to the collapse of a relatively promising strategy to expel the group from its most significant stronghold.
As the battle for Mosul began last Monday, many wondered whether ISIL would stay to defend the city or choose to live to fight another day. After all, the determination of Iraqi forces and their international allies to expel the group from the country’s second largest city means the outcome is almost certain, even if the stronghold is a symbolic and strategic priority for ISIL.
The group chose to withdraw in Fallujah when it became apparent it was overwhelmed militarily, while it fought until the end in Ramadi and Manbij.
The binary choice, however, may not apply to Mosul. ISIL will, most likely, choose to fight until the end. But even if it does not do so, the alternative will not be withdrawal to preserve its forces. Instead, it will probably fight in the hope that the current strategy – built on delicate sectarian, ethnic and political balances – unravels.
The group will choose this path because the stakes for it in this battle are too high. If the current composition of Iraqi forces fighting ISIL expel it from Mosul with relative speed and minimal damage to the city, the win could be a true game-changer for the country and the future of the group. If we know one thing about ISIL, it is that it will not allow this to happen. Typically, it excels at political tradecraft rather than military operations. This ability will be brought to bear in the defining battle for Mosul.
So far, Iraqi forces appear to have the upper hand. The division of labour in the battle and the demand for Kurdish and Shia militias to stay out of Mosul proper are encouraging signs that a victory will have far-reaching consequences for the group. Yet, will the current strategy hold? What happens if the battle drags on for several months? Will the forces continue to show restraint? What if professional forces inside the city feel compelled to seek the help of militias fighting in the vicinity?
The forces fighting on different fronts against ISIL around Mosul are the definition of strange bedfellows. Competing agendas in an area seen as vital for each side to ensure their long-term interests mean that it will be only a matter of time before rivalries start to cause trouble. This trouble might be minor for the overall battle, but it could be disruptive.
Iraqi forces expect the fight to end soon. If the battle drags on, overconfidence can turn into frustration and overreaction. As The Washington Post reported on Friday, Iraqi forces on the front lines are complaining about the slow and sparse close-air support provided by the United States-led coalition. Tal Afar, north-west of Mosul, could become a flashpoint. Turkey continues to insist on having a role in the battle, as Shia militias operating under the banner of Hashd Al Shaabi seem set to launch an attack to retake the city.
Hawija is emerging as another issue for the international coalition. The city is an ISIL stronghold that many wanted liberated before Mosul given its location west of Kirkuk. There are disagreements between Kurdish and Shia militias over who fights in the city. Leaders of Hashd Al Shaabi visited Kirkuk on Saturday to discuss the issue with Kurdish officials, especially after ISIL stormed into Kirkuk and clashed with the Kurdish peshmerga in half a dozen locations inside the city.
Continued……
ISIS can’t afford a quick loss in Mosul. Its focus will likely be the “soft underbelly” of the operation: divisions
BUT on the other sectarian side of this conflict….the Shia…..
Maliki: “Coming, Nineveh!” operation also means “Coming, Raqqa”, “Coming Aleppo” & “Coming, Yemen”.
Maliki: Coming everywhere where Muslims are fighting those wanting to apostatise from Islamic teachings.
This is the same Maliki who called the Anbar campaign in 2013-2014 “a fight between the followers of Hussian against the followers of Yazid”
REMEMBER this is being driven by the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry FULL tilt to Iran as the regions main new hegemon ALL via the IRAN DEAL…think abut that for a moment….
Reading some US-based analysts writing on Aleppo & you’d think only JFS & Ahrar alSham existed. Bizarrely no mention of any other actors.
Such CT-narratives play into Assad/Russia narrative & totally misunderstand Aleppo opposition dynamics.
A self-fulfilling CT prophecy.
We see the exact same problem when dealing with IS….why is that?
Bill M…reference my posted comments below on the importance of Diyala to the IS and all the Sunni Salafist insurgents…..
CTC at West Point @CTCWP
“Losing Mosul, Regenerating in Diyala” by @Mikeknightsiraq & @AlexMello02
https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/losing-mosul-regenerating-in-diyala-how-the-islamic-state-could-exploit-iraqs-sectarian-tinderbox …
Who controls Diyala controls the entire Sunni insurgency….missed in 2003 and now suddenly “discovered” because the CTC writes about it…some of us tried to point this out in 2005 and were basically and largely ignored….
WHEN the Army tried to draw down in late 2006 early 2007 the Army attempted to then turn over the Diyala AO which had taken a complete BCT to half way control and enlarged the AO by 50% still covered by a single BCT….in the face of an ever growing and aggressive guerilla war….make sense to anyone????
It did not then to me and still does not make sense 10 years later…
Bill M…also notice my previous comments on the close ties between QJBR/AQI and now IS and the Iraqi IIS…..
The Isis commander who led the Rutbah operation is Abu Saleh al-Zoubayi — the city’s former chief of intelligence for Saddam Hussain
Secondly, really look at the role of Sufism inside Islam…more than meets the eye especially the Sufi Order….the Naqshbandi Order which al Duri leads the Iraqi Order and which was the strongest Sunni insurgent grouping next to AQI/IS….was working with IS inside Iraq and now has shifted against IS….much as they did in Iraq 2008-2010 period…first working with Is then against them….
Lastly check the impact of the political/religious thinking of Wahi Ali on Sufism in India and how it impacted the political development of the orthodox AFG Taliban……
Might in fact surprise a lot of people….
Robert….here is the most perfect example of why I say those in the US MSM and those people sitting in the DC circle have absolutely no idea about the “ground environment ie the players” in Syria and they never understood even Iraq….
This is a lead article posted by SWJ on Syria and the Kurds by a well know DC journalist….NOTICE he never ever utters a single printed word that many ME SMEs have stated since 1979 the Kurdish YPG/SDF our supposedly best anti Is fighting force inside Iraq/Syria is the same very US named Kurdish terrorist group called PKK…they just changed to names to get US support..AND to protect the “innocent so to speak”..
NOT a single word about that relationship which well known MS SMEs repeat over and over and over…..exists…..along with evidence of that relationship…why is that?
Secondly he utterly failed to mention the fact that that so called US Kurdish proxy is in fact fighting against the CIA supported FSA using Assad/Putin CAS and artillery…..why is that…????
AND he totally failed to mention that wherever YPG goes there is a sudden and total ethnic cleansing of anything Arab confirmed repeatedly by AI and the HWR and to a degree even the UN…BUT not a single mention in the article.
Basically this was a PR paid piece for the YPG nothing more nothing less and again absolutely no understanding of the ME and the ground players.
Why the Middle East knows not to trust the United States
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-the-middle-east-knows-not-to-trust-the-united-states/2016/10/25/09c00c52-9afa-11e6-b3c9-f662adaa0048_story.html?utm_term=.23ce0e870a5f
UNDER that title he could have written a far deeper meaningful article as the ME does not trust the US now and it is just not because of the Kurds…..