Obama’s Syria Plan Teams Up American and Russian Forces
Obama’s Syria Plan Teams Up American and Russian Forces by Josh Rogin, Washington Post
The Obama administration’s new proposal to Russia on Syria is more extensive than previously known. It would open the way for deep cooperation between U.S. and Russian military and intelligence agencies and coordinated air attacks by American and Russian planes on Syrian rebels deemed to be terrorists, according to the text of the proposal I obtained.
Secretary of State John F. Kerry plans to discuss the plan with top Russian officials in a visit to Moscow on Thursday. As I first reported last month, the administration is proposing joining with Russia in a ramped-up bombing campaign against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syria branch, which is also known as the Nusrah Front. What hasn’t been previously reported is that the United States is suggesting a new military command-and-control headquarters to coordinate the air campaign that would house U.S. and Russian military officers, intelligence officials and subject-matter experts.
Overall, the proposal would dramatically shift the United States’ Syria policy by directing more American military power against Jabhat al-Nusra, which unlike the Islamic State is focused on fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. While this would expand the U.S. counterterrorism mission in Syria, it would also be a boon for the Assad regime, which could see the forces it is fighting dramatically weakened. The plan also represents a big change in U.S.-Russia policy. It would give Russian President Vladimir Putin something he has long wanted: closer military relations with the United States and a thawing of his international isolation. That’s why the Pentagon was initially opposed to the plan…
Here is the perfect example of the “Russia” that the Obama/Kerry WH wants to do deals with in both eastern Ukraine and Syria….
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-d…?trk=prof-post
THIS is really worth reading as the writer was a Swedish military trained sniper who fought in the Ukrainian volunteer Azor BN from the very beginning and then setup their own basic training course for all new BN members….based on a modified copy of a US Ranger course…
Many items mentioned in this article I have posted a lot of comments “around some of his comments” and have wondered about particular developments…and there was never anything concrete to be found until this….
How the death of a senior Lieutenant unraveled the Russian support in East Ukraine
Published on July 13, 2016
Mikael Skillt
Quote:
During 2014 while being deployed in the ATO zone with my unit I was an active user of social media trying to show the world what was happening in Ukraine, which wasn’t easy with the massive Russian propaganda machine working on full power. It was during this time that I came into contact with Dima, he was an senior Lieutenant with the 76th VDV but had recently been discharged and got an contract with one of the Russian PMCs that sent him and his six man team to sector M (Area between Donetsk and Mariupol). Me and Dima used to argue all the time presenting what we considered to be the truth in all of this, we never were rude towards each other but rather had a mutual respect.
This continued all thru the operations of Marinka, Ilovaisk and some kind of an friendship grew between of us. When I was deployed at Shyrokino, Dima sent me an warning. In this private message he told me that a major attack would be launched against Shyrokino and that his group would take part in it. At the time I didn’t believe him, but time would tell that his warning was real and Im not sure if it helped my group or not, but still the gesture was appreciated.
Dima and me made an agreement that if the two of us would survive the war we would meet up on neutral ground and share an ice cream, sadly only one of us would made it out alive. Dima went quite for a while and life passed on as normal for me, when I suddenly was contacted by a friend of Dima asking for a favor. The contact with Dima had been lost for a while and his family couldn’t get in touch with him, so they were afraid that he was captured by the Ukrainians and asked me to find any information about this.
I was given his rank, full name, date of birth and all the other data I needed to ask my friends within the Ukrainian structures. After a week the answer came, there was no prisoner that would match Dima, and I informed his friend. One week passed and his friend contacted me again, telling me that Dima and 4 of his soldiers had been killed in an ambush just outside Zorya, the ambush was considered an accident committed by the separatist group ’Oplot’ but it happened just after Dima refused to follow orders. Apparently Dima wanted to defect to the Ukrainian side, he was tired of the war and the killings, this I didn’t know of until I received the messages from his friend. Dima left a wife and two small children behind when buried in an unmarked grave north of Stila in Donbas.
I asked his friend to send my regards to Dimas wife and went on with my life until one day I get the most peculiar email, where one of the contractors for LNR contacts me and wondering why some officers from GRU wanted him to contact me. I reply that I had no idea and that I wanted no part in whatever schemes Russia was trying to play, the next email that comes from ”Ivan” explain a bit more on why he contacted me and it turns out that Dima had a lot of friends within the Russian army that didn’t approve of how Russia have handled the matter. For a couple of emails we try to establish some kind of feeling for each other and then ”Ivan” starts explaining how Russia where sending equipment into Ukraine, how they set up training camps in Rostov and how Russian special forces where sent into Ukraine.
The email dating from December 2014 explaining how most of the PMC contractors had left Ukraine and behind was parts of the regular army and the volunteers from Russia, mostly being hardcore socialists, drunks or ex prisoners given a choice to fight and be free. Specialists from the Russian army where frequently sent into Eastern Ukraine to support the Russia backed separatists trying to build an army with the equipment Russia sent them thru the parts of uncontrolled border.
In order for Russia to send equipment and personel into Ukraine they used Rostov as an FOB and all personel would have to sign up there, while being in Rostov their passports and phones would be taken from them and stored in Rostov, then they would be given documents showing that they where properly enlisted in the Luhansks Peoples Republic, once their formal affairs was finished they would be sent by bus to the Ukrainian uncontrolled border and pass into occupied Ukrainian territory where they would be met by an officer from the local separatists. Ivan was assigned as an military advisor in May 2014 and got to oversee a lot of the operations planned by Russia and executed by the local separatists, one of these operations where to ship equipment from Russia into occupied Ukraine.
In the very early events, Russia didn’t supply anything, they were just sending the Cossacks to secure the elections, they were accompanied by a few volunteers, most of them carried their own (light) equipment, there was very few given to the locals
This would soon change as resistance grew and Russia understood that this would require a lot more help, massive amounts of small arms and ammunition where sent to LNR, most of it would be leftovers from the Georgian conflict. During this time the Cossacks grew in numbers and so did the volunteers, all of them were trained by Russian or by Russia appointed instructors, some of them were trained outside of Rostov in special weaponry such as tanks (T-64), GRAD or handling of manpads, while infantry training was carried out inside the territory of LNR by several nations from within the Russian federation.
Also around April 2014 there was a temporally camp on the outskirts of Rostov where local volunteers where trained in the use of special equipment like ATGMs, MANPADS, tanks and artillery. Base was moved in August to near Kvaisi, outside of Russia
When the summer came in 2014 Russia was pouring in weaponry into the Ukrainian occupied territory including so called “volunteers” from Ossetia, Chechnya, Abkhazia and Buryatia with them came equipment painted with Ukrainian markings, all not to show the heritage of the equipment. Within Russia documents would say that the equipment passing thru belonged to the small states and was given to the separatists as support against an oppressive Ukrainian government. With the fake volunteers came full units of VDV- and GRU units that would oversee and commit covert operations within Ukraine.
All major operations, like the big attack on Airport (Donetsk) where carried out by these guys and some other experienced groups under GRU command in Rostov
As well as most tanks (exception are the captured ones). Yes they were really captured, or bought from Ukraine side, it was more than you’d expect in a civil war, so there’s some truth in that, problem is, it went to the local groups
To be able to move troops and to attack fairly unnoticed by the OSCE, officers would approach the OSCE and tell them that is wasn’t safe to go into that area due to fighting and while OSCE was waiting for things to slow down they would bring in full battalions to attack and then retreat leaving only local separatists in the area, all of this was possible due to the fixed schedule of the OSCE drone patrolling the borders, a schedule everyone was aware off. During the late summer Russia kept sending equipment and even decided to send very unique equipment since they noticed that the west really didn’t care even tho it couldn’t be any question marks regarding who that was supporting the separatists. Now T-72 and RPOs started to flow cross the Russian/Ukrainian border.
In late summer we received more advanced equipment, even some T-72, lots and lots of RPOs, which were damn effective and I think more GRADs than the whole Ukraine ever had (not really but you get me I guess)
The volunteers turned out to be a complicated group to control and several fights broke out between regular Russian army and the local warlords wanting to go on an rampage against what they saw as growing fascism in Ukraine, they where considered to be a liability for the Russians since they refused to follow orders and caused more trouble then expected, they where behind a lot of the rising criminality in the area. By december most of the local warlords within LNR was dealt with either by force or by politics, meaning that those that didn’t get killed ended up moving to Donetsk Peoples Republic, where they could have a more free reign under Motorola or Givi. Maybe the most infamous group to leave LNR for DNR was the battalion under Alexandr ”Batman” Bednov, within this battalion was the only known openly neo-nazi group fighting for a ”Novorossiya”
Now the majority of the fighting force in LPR are under Russian command, there’s still smaller groups of locals, which resist but they’re the minority
In November 2014 a surge of Russian soldiers was sent into Ukraine, but their main mission wasn’t to wage war but to keep the separatists under control and provide them with enough weapons and equipment for the separatists to be able to fight on without winning, this mission have led to quite a few bursts of openly hostilities between Russian armed forces and local warlords, killing at least two commanders of the ”Novorossiya” forces. But the leadership within the two ”states” are under control and they control most of their forces without any trouble.
Well I met Motorola twice, he’s a charming guy, very entertaining but he has no real military experience as a leader and his group refused all orders to stop fighting…
Continued…
Kyle W. Orton
@KyleWOrton
US to offer Russia an ‘anti-terror pact’ in Syria
http://bit.ly/29ALYho via @Josiensor.
Comments from @Charles_Lister and me.
“The rebellion will feel, not unjustifiably, that this is the US taking sides against them.”
Michael Weiss
✔ @michaeldweiss Seems also Obama’s attempt to tie Hillary’s hand. She’ll have limited options once a deal with Moscow is locked in.
Nancy Youssef, نانسى @nancyayoussef
Overheard at the Pentagon: “I think when ‘cessation of hostilities’ is translated from English to Russian, it becomes ‘bitch slap America.'”
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
“Ceasefire” is supposedly in place in #Syria right now. We just have to bribe #Russia/#Assad by helping them win; then they might comply.
If we coordinate with Moscow in Syria we are condoning and legitimizing every atrocity they’ve committed.
Russia jets recently killed 135 civilian relatives of US-backed rebels in no-man’s land on #Syria-Jordan border.
Moscow *will* push back against some items of #Obama’s proposal tomorrow with Sec. Kerry, but core points likely to soon be attempted.
No underestimating how much this will, for many Syrians, “prove” Jabhat al-Nusra’s narrative was “right” all along.
Obama is fully supporting JaN (AQ) 500%
Bill…here is the core problem and I have been hammering this for two years now…..
The Obama admin leaned on Russia to save its bacon in Syria repeatedly and was burned every time. No lessons learned https://www.commentarymagazine.com/f…russian-hands/ …
American Power in Russian Hands
Noah Rothman / July 14, 2016
You would think that Barack Obama would have learned his lesson by now. You would be wrong.
Quote:
According to reporting by the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin, the United States has proposed to cooperate with Russia in the skies over Syria. The proposed plan would create a new joint military command-and-control office where both nations’ militaries could coordinate their strikes on terrorist targets. What’s troubling in this proposal, however, is it would appear to prioritize Russian targets and, thus, Russian interests.
“Overall, the proposal would dramatically shift the United States’ Syria policy by directing more American military power against Jabhat al-Nusra, which unlike the Islamic State is focused on fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,” read Rogin’s dispatch. The proposal would ostensibly allow the United States to draw Russia into making more strikes on ISIS targets, which it has been previously reluctant to do, jointly with American forces. In the event, however, that there was a substantial threat to its Assad regime allies from Nusra or the terror group advanced beyond unspecified “designated areas,” the Russian air force could act unilaterally.
How this proposal advances American interests in the region is subject to interpretation. The risks, meanwhile, are clear, present, and simply cataloged:
Kerry sees the proposal as a way to reduce the violence in Syria and ground the regime’s air force. The risk is that attacking Jabhat al-Nusra in conjunction with the Russians will spur terrorist recruiting, increase civilian casualties and put the United States firmly on the wrong side of the revolution in the eyes of the Syrian people. Also, there’s no enforcement mechanism if the Putin or Assad regimes violate their commitments — as they have consistently done until now.
Secondly, this pact would ratify what Russia partially achieved with its “de-confliction” agreement with the United States: the legitimization of its military intervention in Syria. And if Russia’s intervention in Syria is legitimate, then so are the interests it is defending: namely, the preservation of the genocidal Bashar al-Assad regime.
In the absence of a multinational coalition, Barack Obama has never been comfortable with anything more than pinprick precision displays of kinetic American military power. In Syria, the president has been losing members of that anti-ISIS coalition for some time, and Russia’s addition might suffice to mollify some of their concerns about the appearance of unilateralism. The president has, however, been relying on Russia to effectively manage American interests in the Middle East for years and has repeatedly been burned in the process.
In his desperation to avoid following through with his “red line” for action in Syria in the autumn of 2013, after a series of mass casualty chemical weapons attacks on civilian populations by Assad forces, the president leaned on Russia. In a prime-time address to the nation, Obama announced that Moscow had agreed to broker a third way in which they would oversee the removal of chemical weapons from Syria so that American airstrikes can be avoided. Today, chemical weapons stockpiles are still in Assad regime hands, as well as in the possession of terror groups like ISIS, and American airstrikes were not averted.
Russian support for Assad, welcomed by an American administration that continued to issue contradictory calls for the Syrian dictator’s abdication, was a great success. Russia bought time for his forces, which were beleaguered and collapsing by October of 2013, and they secured their last post-Soviet port on the Mediterranean at Tartus. But those gains could not be sustained forever without direct intervention. After weeks of importing support personnel and equipment, a Russian three-star general marched into the American embassy in Baghdad with a simple message. Federation air strikes on “terrorist” targets in Syria would begin momentarily. “If you have forces in the area we request they leave,” he reportedly said. Russian forces immediately began harassing American drones, shadowing Turkish fighter planes, and seeking to push the West out of theater by force.
Even after all this, the Obama administration continued to hope that Russia could somehow extricate itself from the Syrian nightmare it allowed to metastasize through inaction. Even as Russian forces reportedly deployed cluster munitions on civilian targets and targeted brick-and-mortar hospitals with airstrikes, the White House still begged the Kremlin to impose a ceasefire on the belligerents in Syria. Time and again, the administration has been disappointed by their Russian counterparts, but that disappointment never seems to dissuade them from taking another kick at the football.
It should be abundantly clear by now that this administration will never be comfortable with America’s prohibitive military power. They would prefer to be used and embarrassed by their erstwhile partners in the Russian government than to unapologetically pursue American interests and grand strategy. In Syria, in particular, the Obama administration’s reputation has been severely damaged. If only the White House could see it.
Outside of so called “concrete measures” not much else came out of an over eight hour set of meetings….
FRANCE 24 English
✔ @France24_en Kerry: US, Russia agree ‘concrete steps’ to save Syria truce
http://f24.my/29Zwg1H
THIS shows just how much even Kerry is in an altered state of reality when it comes to Syria as there has been no CoH for now days…..on end after massive Iranian, Assad and Putin air and ground attacks…..
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
Kerry’s precedents for US-Russia cooperation: #IranDeal, 2013 CW “deal,” DEC 2015 climate change deal. Cheers you up for #Syria, doesn’t it?
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
Kerry’s press conference with Lavrov last night is incredible: history re-written on IS, Russia/Iran’s role in Syria
http://bit.ly/29DMzQg
Quote:
SECRETARY KERRY: So with respect to Turkey, I only – because we have been engaged very deeply in discussions all day, and literally Sergey and I caught up to the news of what may or may not be happening at the very last minute before coming in here. So I think it’s inappropriate for me to comment except to say that we’ve heard the reports that others have heard. I don’t have any details at this point in time. I hope there will be stability and peace and continuity within Turkey, but I have nothing to add with respect to what has transpired at this moment.
With respect to the critics who may or may not be making judgments about what may or may not have been agreed upon, first of all, they don’t know the details of what we have or haven’t agreed on. And number two, we have homework to do, and I said that very clearly. Number three, the United Nations Security Council has labeled both Daesh – or ISIL, as some call it – and al-Nusrah, which is al-Qaida – they are labeled as terrorist organizations. And the United States has no clouds over our – there’s nothing standing in the way of our judgment about the need to be standing up against and fighting against terrorism. And both are terrorists.
So if some critic is criticizing the United States or Russia for going after al-Nusrah, which is a terrorist organization, because they’re good fighters against Assad, they have their priorities completely screwed up. The fact is that Nusrah is plotting against countries in the world. What happened in Nice last night could just as well have come from Nusrah or wherever it came from as any other entity, because that’s what they do. And so I have no illusions about what we need to do. I also have confidence in the people of Syria and confidence in the opposition – the non-terrorist organization opposition, the legitimate opposition, the opposition we have supported – to continue to fight for their freedom and for their principles and their values within Syria. And there is nothing that we are doing that is going to undermine the particular fundamentals between them and the Assad regime.
We have always said – and nothing that we’re talking about doing here will change the fact – that there is no military solution to the problem of Syria. It requires a diplomatic, political solution. And that political solution requires going to the table and having a negotiation in Geneva according to the terms of the Geneva accord.
Now, as I said a moment ago, there are two principal violators that have been persistently violating what is going on with respect to the ceasefire. And one is, as I said, the Assad regime with its indiscriminate bombing, and the second is obviously the question of al-Nusrah – which, as you just said, is fighting against Assad and which is providing no peace and security and which, regrettably, some opposition have occasionally chosen to fight with because they are fighting against Assad. But that doesn’t excuse it, and it will not excuse it in our eyes. We saw what happened when people said the same thing about ISIL for a period of time – oh, don’t worry, they’re just a force against Assad, and down the road we can take them on. Well, they became more than just a force. And so I think that it is important for the United States, Russia, the entire coalition of ISSG to stand up against terrorism, and that is what we intend to continue to do.
Now, we continue – not one iota of our policy has changed with respect to the Assad regime. We still believe that Syria can’t have peace while Assad is there. We believe that. We have a difference with Russia on that. But notwithstanding that difference, we both believe it is important for us to try to reestablish the cessation of hostilities.
And when we first came to the table in Vienna and I proposed a ceasefire, put it on the table, it was not Russia or Iran that said no. Both of them said yes, we should have a ceasefire. But there were others at the table who opposed proceeding forward with a ceasefire, and some of them, unfortunately, I think, may regret that today. But the point is simply that we have consistently been working towards the full implementation of a ceasefire.
Now, final comment. It gets very confusing, obviously, on the ground with respect to who’s who and who’s where, and that’s part of the homework we’re going to do in order to absolutely be able to be clearer to people about who is supported by whom and who needs to change their behavior in order to adhere to the ceasefire itself.
And we had a long conversation about that today. I’m not going to share all the details of it because it won’t work unless certain things, conditions which we agree have to be met, are put in place. So we’re not here promising the world, not here tonight to suggest to you that overnight this is going to change. But I am here with confidence that if the things we talked about and agreed ought to be implemented are, in fact, implemented, then this has the opportunity to change the playing field significantly. And let the proof be in the pudding, not in our words.
REMEMBER…this is virtually the same thing that Obama stated in 2014 about Putin’s actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine….
(And let the proof be in the pudding, not in our words.)
“We will judge Putin by his actions not his words”……….
So was Kerry just “channeling” Obama/Rhodes and the Russian WH??????????
Reports Russian warplanes targeted Azaz city near Turkish border north Aleppo for the first time in months.
Kerry-Lavrov cooperation deal quickly translated into actions on the ground targeting the moderate rebels AKA FSA suppose to be excluded.
BUT WAIT did not the Russian FM and Putin virtually guarantee that all Assad chemical weapons had been removed from Syria….APPARENTLY Russia lied…again as usual and yet Obama and Kerry insist on trusting them….
How did this not cause a bigger stir? OPCW all but accuses Syria of lying; US warns Assad may retain CW
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Jul-13/361877-syria-must-explain-chemical-warfare-agents-watchdog.ashx#.V4Z8HZ1yZKA.twitter … v @JPZanders
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister ·
This has [grudgingly] been known for a long time within high-level govt circles — 20%+ of 2013 stockpiles remain.
Sami @Paradoxy13 · 17 Jan 2015
Assad’s alleged secret #CW storage sites in #Damascus according to a senior official in the Republican Guard.
Just how crazy is the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH getting these days…..
First they cannot identify who bombed two Syrian hospitals in the middle of the night….
Secondly, they cannot identify who bombed two Syrian IDP camps……
Thirdly, they cannot even state who is dropping cluster, incendiary and thermobaric bombs on Syrian civilians……
Fourthly…they never could prove who invaded eastern Ukraine
THEN this…they had no idea about the developing coup……..
No intel on #Russia invading #Ukraine. No intel on ‘special status’ fallout.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6knKz4Xzb90 …
Appears that we need to replace the entire US Intel Community with open source social media analysts……
Syria rebel leader who has been fighting for five years: “[The West] abandoned us…and then condemns us when we are forced to seek help [from al-Nusra].”
Actually explains why the Obama/Kerry/Rhodes and now Russian WH has totally failed in Syria…….in one single sentence…..
Robert Ford @fordrs58
Obama thinks 2013 CW deal a big achievement(?), but US officials (at OPCW, UN) denounce Syr govt violations of deal.
Really worth reading…why is it that social media and Syrian SMEs are far better informed than the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH, the entire 700 person NSC and the entire US IC and CENTCOM combined……….
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
In this, I exclusively reveal a secret process aiming to split +/- 1/3 of Jabhat al-Nusra away -> new non-AQ group.
“Under Pressure, #Syria’s Rebels Face al-Nusra Quandary”
My new *exclusive* piece.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/…b0e7c8735055e4 …
Larijani advisor Hossein Sheikholeslam, an old Levant hand who helped midwife Hezbollah in 80s, back as Iranian amb to Syria—1st stint 98-03
Was a hostage-taker at US Embassy in 1979. A telling appointment, as #Tehran takes a grip over #Assad in #Damascus.
Those “moderates again…..
BREAKING: Secret docs obtained by AP show deal which would allow Iran to replace its centrifuges after just 11 years
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/140ca…ke-constraints …
MUSTWATCH
English interview with doctor John Keller – only Western (US) doctor in #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF-sXRw5nTM …
I haven’t seen anything that looked like a terrorist (in Aleppo). I have seen damage done to children, pregnant women and family houses.”
It’s louder on Mars than on Earth when it comes to condemning Rus/Syr air strikes on Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ft_wMI_CYI …
NonstopTerror
10 civilians killed, 35 injured in 5 Russian air strikes on #Idlib overnight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl3frL36rjs …
Just another air strike on #children by Putin&Assad, this time in #Idlib city.
Heard of it from any of the MSM?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnV7YVU1dek …
REMEMBER..even the Russian Syrian Ambassador recently publicly stated that Assad would not be attacking Aleppo…..right……
For all the Kerry talking with the Russians nothing has been achieved as Putin simply wants a total victory over any opposition to Assad…and until Obama/Kerry/Rhodes WH does something forceful…Putin will not react.
Kerry and Nuland just went to Moscow “to judge if Russia/Putin was serious about finding a resolution to eastern Ukraine and Syria”…..NOTICE outside of a press conference where Nuland was not even present NOTHING absolutely NOTHING was achieved….
We have the heaviest fighting on the Minsk 2 front line since August 2015 with heavy UAF loses and yet they still attempt to hold to the agreement and try not to return heavy artillery fire out of fear of being blamed by the US and the Normandy Four of “violating Minsk 2″…..
In the Syria the killing of civilians just keeps on keeping on….with an average of over 100 civilians a day being killed and that includes children and women..
The only thing US & Russia seems to agree on in Syria is killing more civilians & completely destroying the country to enforce their interests and or lack of interest.
WHEN will the Obama/Kerry/Rhodes and now Russian Wh finally learn that Putin only understands force….probably never since they are out of the WH in five months…..they are already in “let’s throw this to the next President” mode we have “safely secured our own legacy” but at what cost to the lives of Ukrainians and Syrians and the damage done to the US FP for years to come.
Notice the Russian response to the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH plan………
Aleppo today.
The worldwide accepted genocide continues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUDTY4eMUVY …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrjr9utTT-M …
A third @sams_usa hospital is bombed in #Aleppo today. Many injured.Aleppo residents have no way to go @BBCWorld
BUT WAIT was it not the US that could not figure out just who was bombing Syrian hospitals….or bombing IDP camps…or dropping cluster, incendiary or thermobaric munitions……?????
Now in Manbij when a former school housing IDPs is hit killing over 125 civilians…men, women and children….silence out of the US…but initially they claimed those killed were IS until social media pointed out otherwise…..along with the photos and videos…..
Notice the same thing happened in Iraq when a so called IS convoy out of Fallujah was hit and civilians were killed.
Some might say this is a direct result of the not wanting to do “stupid shit” UNQUOTE by the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH….
The White Helmets
@SyriaCivilDef
This video shows a typical day in Aleppo – follow the work of a medical team in #Aleepo. MUST WATCH. https://www.facebook.com/aleppo24news/videos/1123104444394990/ …
BUT since the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH does not care about genocide we will be seeing more of this daily now……
Even though from 2013….must be read as it gives insight into the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH where “not doing stupid #### UNQUOTE became the driving force of their combined Syrian/ISFP……
http://www.theatlantic.com/internati…deaths/275328/
Why Is There a ‘Red Line’ on Chemical Weapons but Not on 70,000 Deaths?
Obama’s strategy in the Middle East is ‘engage where we must, disengage where we can’
Animal carcasses lie on the ground, killed by what residents said was a chemical weapon attack on Tuesday, in Khan al-Assal area near the northern city of Aleppo, March 23, 2013. (George Ourfalian/Reuters)
Quote:
As evidence of the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons mounts, the Obama administration has further confused matters regarding its own stated “red lines.” The evidence appears to be strong but not necessarily “conclusive.” As the April 25th White House letter states, “the chain of custody is not clear, so we cannot confirm how the exposure occurred and under what conditions.” This sort of rhetoric points to an administration that finds itself cornered but, at the same time, seems intent on postponing any decisive action for as long humanly possible. The debate over whether, how, when, and to what extent lines were crossed not only seems petty (and undermines the very notion of a red line); it is also a distraction.
Presumably, the Obama administration’s red-lining of chemical weapons isn’t just about the risk of mass civilian casualties. After all, mass slaughter — with over 70,000 killed — has already happened and hasn’t apparently shaken the U.S. commitment to studied inaction. The real concern is over the security implications of chemical weapon use or transport. First, the weapons could fall into the hands of non-state actors, metastasizing the terror threat. Second (and related to the first), the spread of chemical weapons would lead to unprecedented regional destabilization in the form of a sharp increase in refugee flows, which, in turn, could threaten the stability of friendly autocrats like the Jordanian monarchy.
These concerns are of course justified, but the focus on security implications — rather than focusing on the 70,000 already killed by good old-fashioned artillery and aircraft — suggests an outdated (and morally problematic) calculus for action. In saying that chemical weapons are a red line, the Obama administration is also saying that the killing of 70,000 Syrians is not a red line, which, when you think about it, is a remarkable thing to say.
More than two years after the Arab uprisings began, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that U.S. policy toward the Middle East is more or less the same as it was before. Whether it is Secretary of State John Kerry effusively
Animal carcasses lie on the ground, killed by what residents said was a chemical weapon attack on Tuesday, in Khan al-Assal area near the northern city of Aleppo, March 23, 2013. (George Ourfalian/Reuters)
As evidence of the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons mounts, the Obama administration has further confused matters regarding its own stated “red lines.” The evidence appears to be strong but not necessarily “conclusive.” As the April 25th White House letter states, “the chain of custody is not clear, so we cannot confirm how the exposure occurred and under what conditions.” This sort of rhetoric points to an administration that finds itself cornered but, at the same time, seems intent on postponing any decisive action for as long humanly possible. The debate over whether, how, when, and to what extent lines were crossed not only seems petty (and undermines the very notion of a red line); it is also a distraction.
Presumably, the Obama administration’s red-lining of chemical weapons isn’t just about the risk of mass civilian casualties. After all, mass slaughter — with over 70,000 killed — has already happened and hasn’t apparently shaken the U.S. commitment to studied inaction. The real concern is over the security implications of chemical weapon use or transport. First, the weapons could fall into the hands of non-state actors, metastasizing the terror threat. Second (and related to the first), the spread of chemical weapons would lead to unprecedented regional destabilization in the form of a sharp increase in refugee flows, which, in turn, could threaten the stability of friendly autocrats like the Jordanian monarchy.
These concerns are of course justified, but the focus on security implications — rather than focusing on the 70,000 already killed by good old-fashioned artillery and aircraft — suggests an outdated (and morally problematic) calculus for action. In saying that chemical weapons are a red line, the Obama administration is also saying that the killing of 70,000 Syrians is not a red line, which, when you think about it, is a remarkable thing to say.
More than two years after the Arab uprisings began, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that U.S. policy toward the Middle East is more or less the same as it was before. Whether it is Secretary of State John Kerry effusively praising
regimes and failing to muster even a sentence of criticism; the unwillingness to condition economic assistance on democratic reform in countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan; or conducting business as usual in Bahrain, one of the worst human rights offenders in the region; the bottom line is much the same – security trumps all.
I joked on twitter recently that if an alien came from outer space and was only allowed to read transcripts of Secretary Kerry’s regional press conferences, it would probably have no idea that something called the “Arab Spring” happened. For hardline realists, this is perhaps evidence of prudence and sobriety. They, and others, are right to point out that the United States isn’t exactly a human rights NGO. It is the responsibility and duty of politicians to protect American citizens, not Syrians. This is all fair and good, but one would have hoped — particularly after September 11th — that we retired the notion that Americans can stay insulated from what happens in Syria, or Lebanon, or Jordan.
This leads us to an even more troubling question: if one of the world-historical moments of recent decades doesn’t lead us to re-think the fundamental assumptions guiding U.S. policy, then what will? The timing, of course, was unfortunate. Arabs decided to have their revolutions in a post-Bush era of recession and self-doubt. Not only that, the Obama administration turned out to be more ideological than one might have expected. The unwillingness to entertain limited intervention in Syria — despite there being both a compelling moral and strategic rationale — points to a president who is not willing to re-examine positions and change course even after the situation on the ground has changed radically. The Obama administration simply does not want to intervene in Syria (again, just look at the excruciating wording of the White House letter ).
The basic thrust of Obama’s strategy in the Middle East — if one can call it that — is engage where we must, disengage where we can. It is about reducing our footprint in a troubled region. It is about a loss of faith — after the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan — in America’s capacity for “good” intervention. This is all understandable. But it is also unfortunate. Because halting the slaughter — by targeting the Syrian military assets doing the actual killing — is something that the United States and its allies could do, if they wanted to (former senior U.S. official Fred Hof outlines how here). It might not be enough to bring down the regime, at least not anytime soon, but it would be enough to protect and save at least some of the Syrian civilians who find themselves in the regime’s crosshairs. Of course, for many, that’s simply not a good enough reason. But it should be.
BTW…notice the estimated figure of 70,000 killed….SINCE this article the indecision of the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH to do any “stupid ####” UNQUOTE has now contributed to over 500,000 and counting daily and YET this WH still insists in not doing “stupid ####” UNQUOTE.
Nonstop #terrorism also continues vs. the last survivors of #Daraya, W of #Damascus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws2b_V_S_RM …
In #Syria, every day sees the same #Assad/#Putin terrorism.
Also #Aleppo was hit hard today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny0CiTrQo-U …
While Kerry is off talking to Putin and the Russian FM around the world …ROME…..literally burns to the ground and it appears the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH really does not care as at least they can say for their “legacy” we did not do anything stupid” outside of allowing genocide and war crimes to exist while we talked……
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
From @ICRC: pro-#Assad coalition systematically taking apart the necessities for life in #Aleppo, #Syria.
Just the beginning of the crushing of #Aleppo:
Russia’s airstrikes yesterday destroyed three hospitals and blood bank in al-Sha’ar. #Syria
The #Assad-#Iran-#Russia coalition siege of #Aleppo will likely go dark for a while; then the stories of starvation and atrocity will emerge
Appears that the US so called Kurdish proxy SDF is not so “independent after all” as Kerry, CENTOM, US SOF and the Obama WH claim these days….
Arabic tweet says there have been clashes between the PYD and Arabs within the SDF (that the PYD dominates) in Tel Abyad.
Lot of internal tensions. EG Arab groups in the SDF have complained before that the PYD keeps them deliberately weak and dependent.
NOTICE that they use the term PYD not YPG as the PYD is in fact the core group and is inherently tied to the Kurdish terrorist group PKK as many have said and the US has largely ignored….
THIS does tie into the BBC Manbij field reporting that YPG is in fact leading the attack and the comments that the local Arab Sunni’s would rather be saved by IS instead of the Kurds.
Genocide and war crimes the “true legacy” of this “do nothing stupid” Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH Syrian FP…..
121 casualties across #Syria on Saturday (23.7.2016), among them 28 woman and 19 children.
– LCC
Rastan today.
Baby girls and old men – #Assad’s & #Putin’s favorite targets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn1U46Jmbkc …
Aleppo is FULL OF CHILDREN, 100.000+, and other civilians.
The world accepts #Putin & #Assad slaughtering them all.
The moment an #Assad #BarrelBomb hits a 5 floor building in #Huraytan near #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-e5-GGnlAU …
Deliberate, targeted air strikes on civilians
by #Russia happen every day in #Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGaP9AqcGnQ …
Just another #Russian massacre in #Aleppo that killed 10 civilians today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUiJlJ83xlM …
Just the beginning of the crushing of Aleppo:
Russia’s airstrikes yesterday destroyed three hospitals and blood bank in al-Sha’ar. #Syria
REMEMBER when the Russian Syrian Ambassador recently lied as is normal for Russians…..”Assad is not going to attack Aleppo”…….sure…….AND the Obama WH believed him apparently…..
REMEMBER….Assad in a much carried interview ALSO stated he was going to retake Aleppo and what was the West’s response…utter and complete silence…..
ProRussian commenter with very solid ties to Moscow confirms that the Russians deliberately bombed a US/UK base
Yury Barmin
@yurybarmin
A) Moscow implicitly confirms that the strike did take place; B) Moscow makes it clear that it knows where US/UK secret bases are located
AND this is the Russian Obama/Kerry are trying to cut a backdoor deal on in Syria??????
The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef
6 medical facilities targeted in 24 hours in Aleppo City. Below statement predicts effect of +200 deaths/day
This is the end result of having absolutely no strategy outside of “not doing anything stupid”……..which BTW even a five year old child can do….
AND Iran the so called Obama “moderate” is not intent on creating a “greater Iran in Syria”…….
Iraqi Shi’a militia ‘Assad Allah al-Ghalib’ dispatches additional forces to “raise the banner of Ali” across Syria
Manbij Unconfirmed reports that SDF offer for ISIS to withdraw from city has been accepted.
This is interesting as YPG in the past has often worked together with IS…meaning IS would withdraw from positions close to YPG and then YPG would immediately occupy them….and using that game YPG has taken over more Arab Sunni territory…
So will this be declared a victory over IS…especially if they withdraw with their fighters and weapons….
Irbin last night following Assad airstrikes on a market #Damascus
https://youtu.be/99hEiiERICs
https://youtu.be/SBy9xJPdWYU
Horrific photos coming out of Atarib in rural #Aleppo now, 25+ killed & 50+ wounded in at least 25 #Russia|n airstrikes
Multiple Russian/Assad airstrikes with regular & cluster munitions target Atarib in west rural #Aleppo
4 dead inc. 3 children & over 40 wounded in regime airstrikes on a local market in Irbin, eastern Ghouta, #Damascus
https://youtu.be/NOInDartqFg
Let’s see…the US, Russia and UN are talking as usual about Syria and while they talk this continues….
AND this is the Russia the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH and the entire 700 person NSC that wants to “do business with Russia” while the entire rest of the US government ie DoD, DoS and European allies are against it…….
Another day of the world ignoring #Assad’s & #Putin’s air strikes on civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocCRe6YRj0w …
Assad war planes hit #Houla this morning, injuring 3 civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjgPAzpRN88 …
Appears that Russia is now blaming civilians for simply living in Aleppo these days and in other Syrian towns they bomb…
Russian Mission UN
✔ @RussiaUN #Churkin: Use of civilians as human shields by the militants is inadmissible
Churkin: It’s time to stop the unjustified delays and resume intra-Syrian negotiations under @UN auspices
BUT WAIT did he really mean those Russian mercenaries firing from Donetsk civilian areas and verified by OSCE…a slip of the tongue maybe….
Churkin demands explanations from the West on the attacks on the Syrian Manbij
BUT WAIT he does not explain why Assad and Russia are killing on average via their air strikes over 100 per day and WHY Russia bombed five hospitals. one blood bank and the UN humanitarian aid supply warehouse does he…..
REMEMBER this is the exact same Russia Obama/Kerry and the entire NSC want “to do business with”…in the veiled hope Russia stops bombing…which is a total illusion…
AND DoD correctly stated…”with Russia there is no trust”….
What people do when time is running out and one has to “enhance their legacies”…..
More of the Russia that Obama/Kerry/Rhofdes and the entire NSC “thinks they can trust” which BTW it appears that DoD does not “trust”…..
On the history of Russian dezinformatsiya campaigns, from Michael Weiss
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article…h-the-dnc.html …
Russian Wicked Leaks did not just start with the DNC hack ……
To read 80 page report: Russia’s Government Funded Organisations in the EU (The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing) http://www.martenscentre.eu/sites/de…sia-gongos.pdf …
BUT WAIT…even in the face of clear Russian security service hacking tools and clearly identified as such this is the Russian response……
#Kremlin spokesman #Peskov calls charges of #Russian involvement in #DNC hacking the “usual fun and games” during #US electoral campaigns.
Moscow Brings Its Propaganda War to the United States http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/25/moscow-brings-its-propaganda-war-to-the-united-states/ …
The UN is basically a worthless organization in Syria as they cannot even supply humanitarian aid where needed without asking the permission of Assad and Putin…just as the Us must “ask permission from Putin”…..
UN calls for ceasefires to ease civilians’ despair in Aleppo
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20…P=share_btn_tw …
Translation: another month of Russia/regime bombing
Simply declare a no fly zone over Aleppo and the problem is ended….
BUT WAIT………
Obama is not just unwilling to do anything to stop siege, but offer a partnership with Russia that only benefit Assad militia on the ground
Take note. From this day on, the US will be considered by Syrian activists as complicit in all Russian and Assadist warcrimes.
For the first time it is now apparent that the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH have actually reinforced the ME perception that there is in fact a golden handshake in both their explicit support of Assad and his regime forces…even the former US Ambassador to Syria has been trying desperately trying to dispel that “golden handshake” perception and YET Obama is bound and determined to do exactly that with this plan….
This so called plan by Obama/Rhodes and Kerry has been totally dismissed by the DoD, the entire Intelligence Community, the JCoS and a large number of Western allies especially since Russia has never held to a single commitment in eastern Ukraine nor in the so callfe Syrian CoH…SO why would they now….
Besides Obama/Rhodes/Kerry are trying to lock in the next US President to the plan as well……
http://www.businessinsider.com/kerry…ia-2016-7?IR=T
John Kerry: Military cooperation plan with Russia in Syria will be announced ‘somewhere in early August’
VIENTIANE/GENEVA (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday he hoped to announce in early August details of a U.S. plan for closer military cooperation and intelligence sharing with Russia on Syria.
Kerry, speaking after meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of a meeting of Southeast Asian nations in Laos, said there had been progress in recent days on moving forward with the plan.
The proposal would have Washington and Moscow share intelligence to coordinate air strikes against the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and prohibit the Syrian air force from attacking moderate rebel groups.
In Geneva, U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura said he aimed to convene a new round of Syria peace talks toward the end of August, quietly scrapping a previous Aug. 1 deadline while keeping some time pressure on the U.S.-Russia deal.
“Our aim, let me say very clearly, is to proceed with a third round of intra-Syrian talks toward the end of August,” de Mistura told reporters after meeting U.S. Syria envoy Michael Ratney and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov.
De Mistura said he strongly hoped Lavrov and Kerry would make concrete and visible progress because that would improve the situation on the ground and the environment for the peace talks, although such progress was not a precondition for talks.
More details of the U.S.-Russia plan needed to be worked out in the next few days, he said.
Kerry has defended the proposal despite deep skepticism among top American military and intelligence officials, including Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford, over working with Russia.
“My hope is that somewhere in early August we would be in a position to stand up in front of you and tell you what we’re able to do with the hopes it can make a difference to lives of people in Syria and to the course of the war,” Kerry told a news conference in the capital Vientiane.
QUESTIONS ABOUT TRANSPARENCY
During the discussions, he and Lavrov outlined the next stage of implementing the plan, including a series of technical-level meetings to address concerns by the U.S. military and intelligence community.
Kerry’s State Department and White House allies say the plan is the best chance to limit the fighting that is driving thousands of Syrian civilians, with some trained Islamic State fighters mixed in, into exile in Europe, and preventing humanitarian aid from reaching tens of thousands more.
A senior Western diplomat said the lack of transparency of the U.S.-Russia talks was frustrating and – with increased targeting of civilians and hospitals on the ground – it was hard to foresee any deal.
“The Americans are risking a lot for a deal that is as unlikely to be honored as previous engagements the Russians have made,” the diplomat said.
US allies are extremely agitated with Kerry as they have absolutely no idea what he has committed them to since he has a tendency to over promise the Russians as he has done in eastern Ukraine….
OUTLAW 09 is online now Report Post
From Aleppo 48 minutes ago……this is what happens when a WH FP is built on biases and false ideas built around “do nothing stupid”…even a mouse can do that these days…..but it takes leadership and personal courage to do something in the face of genocide and war crimes…….
The Shia have only ever brought betrayal and death to the land of Aleppo. If Aleppo falls it is all lost. We may see a Shia century..
Does the US really want KSA to go to full war in order to dam in the Iranian revolutionary Islam…..apparently so…….they have stated they are ready and willing to….
Apparently this WH does not know Iranian revolutionary Islam exists in the ME….and regards those US citizens killed by Iran to be basically just collateral damage along the way of “doing nothing stupid”…..
The Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH has for some very odd reason fully backed away from previous administrations who openly and publicly stated the US is against genocide and war crimes…….
AND this WH and NSC completely ignores the UNSC US Ambassador Power WHO wrote a 600 page book on genocide and the effects of genocide on politics.
WHY is that????
Samantha Power Verified account
@AmbassadorPower
Strikes by Assad regime hit 4 Aleppo hospitals in <48 hrs. Russia must do its part to stop the fighting. My remarks:
http://usun.state.gov/remarks/7381
Bombing hospitals is a known Russian-Assad tactic. Obama’s coordination w/Putin makes us now openly and directly complicit in mass murder.
AND this is that “highly successful Syrian strategy/FP” this WH keeps talking about…..
Notice that there is a major event ongoing for the last several weeks in the JaN (AQ) about their formal split from AQ …openly covered by social media driven by three major ME/Syrian SMEs and VIRTUALLY ignored by the US MSM and this WH…..
BUT for the ME…extremely important specially for the defeat of IS on their own terms……which is the only way IS will be defeated in the end.
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
After 5 days of (unusual) silence, Jabhat al-Nusra’s Al-Manara al-Baydha media wing has re-awoken – issuing 7 posts today.
A #Nusra_Front official tells AP the group’s leader #AlGolani plans to announce a disassociation with #al-Qaida soon #Syria
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
I’m told probably in a live interview with Al-Jazeera tomorrow.
Also, some key #Nusra leaders may still refuse.
From another commenter yesterday……
It is about finalized, split between AQ and JN decided unanimously by #Nusra, however everything else is just guesses.
For a breakdown of those ongoing JaN internal discussions it has been covered on the Syrian thread.
IF one takes the time one might notice AQ has not carried out any attacks on the West….has been strictly IS and AQ has “declared war on IS”…AGAIN largely missed on US MSM and here at SWJ…..
YPG apologists dare to call the capture of the “Youth Housing Complex” defensive.
It’s not. Assad-YPG coalition.
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/758292103319392256 …
This is a total offensive move against FSA in full support of Assad as the Kurds believe that Assad will allow them to split on their own…
The US supported Kurdish proxy YPG is working hand in hand with Assad…that cannot be the Obama FM….but maybe it is….?????
According to YPG propagandist here, YPG & Assad have a “strategic cease-fire” only involve jointly attacking rebels https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/758294934344597505 …
An interesting critique of the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry Russian proposal…and it is coming finally to the same conclusion those top ME/Syrian SMEs have been drumbeating since the proposal was first surfaced….it will weaken the anti Assad forces, turn the civil war into a true civil war, drive far more Syrians into the arms of AQ and basically KEEP Assad in power….not remove him…..
http://warontherocks.com/2016/07/wha…ly-as-planned/
What if a U.S.-Russian Deal in Syria Goes Exactly as Planned?
Faysal Itani
Most critics of the White House’s proposed U.S.-Russian cooperative arrangement against terrorists in Syria, the terms of which were recently leaked, have focused on what could go wrong. Russia may simply violate the terms of any agreement reached thereby undermining the mission, embarrassing the United States, and hurting its local partners. I am far more troubled, however, by what would happen if the agreement goes as planned. A successful Joint Implementation Group (JIG) would likely weaken or eliminate a strong component of the insurgency without compensating for the lost capacity, further tilting the military balance in the regime’s favor. Unless the United States can prevent that, the JIG would make a lasting negotiated settlement in Syria more difficult than it already is, setting the stage for open-ended civil war and further radicalization.
The JIG’s terms do not overwhelmingly favor Russia, at least not on paper. They place constraints on its military action in Syria in return for intelligence sharing and possible direct operational cooperation against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. Russia would also refrain from targeting jointly designated (and presumably opposition-controlled) areas. Russia would compel the regime to ground its air force across much of Syria. Indeed, Russia might find the JIG’s terms too onerous. It can after all continue its own unrestrained war on al-Nusra and the broader insurgency alike without U.S. cooperation.
If Russia does accept the JIG proposal, it could later derail it through cheating. It could simply violate the terms, especially over target designation and rules of engagement. The document does not mention any penalties for violations, but there appear to be none. Russia may fail (or fail to try) to prevent regime aircraft from operating over “safe” areas, just as it has failed to stop the regime from violating the Cessation of Hostilities, which broke down after a few weeks. Of course, there is little goodwill between the United States and Russia over Syria anyway, meaning intelligence sharing is inherently problematic.
In theory however the JIG could unfold exactly as planned: Russia and the United States would jointly weaken al-Nusra as a serious strategic threat to the regimeRussia would limit its attacks to designated targets and areas. And regime aircraft would be grounded across much of Syria. That would save innocents from regime aerial bombardment — a worthy goal in itself. Strategically, however, the JIG should be judged by the extent that it serves key U.S. policy goals in Syria: fighting extremism and enabling a negotiated settlement to the civil war. Weakening al-Nusra will bring some temporary satisfaction, but under the current military balance it would destroy any chance of a political settlement to the civil war. It also has the potential to further radicalize Syrians fighting the regime who would be rid of al-Nusra, but then find themselves even less prepared to resist regime violence and negotiate a lasting peace.
Like any U.S. policy in Syria, the JIG can succeed only to the extent that it accounts for the main context: the civil war. Both al-Nusra and the civilian suffering that the JIG seeks to mitigate are products of this war. Since Russia intervened against the opposition in October 2015, the military balance has increasingly favored the regime, which has made and continues to make important progress against the rebels. The highly strategic province of Idlib (where al-Nusra is strongest) is the insurgency’s most critical remaining stronghold and a staging point for major operations. Here, al-Nusra fights alongside other Islamist and nationalist brigades, but it is likely the single most capable fighting force in that coalition.
The JIG would break al-Nusra as a conventional fighting force, with two important effects. First, all else being equal, without al-Nusra the opposition will lose Idlib and, with it, its position in northern Syria. The insurgency would no longer pose a strategic threat to the regime, eliminating any incentive for the latter to negotiate a meaningful political settlement with the opposition. Indeed, the regime would be well-placed to crush the remaining insurgent groups as well, including U.S.-backed fighters. A successful JIG would prevent a negotiated settlement by eliminating much of al-Nusra’s capability without replacing or compensating for the insurgency’s lost capacity. This would either prolong the war or facilitate regime progress, killing and radicalizing more Syrians.
Second, anti-regime Syrians will see the JIG as a joint U.S.-Russian war on the insurgency writ large. Unlike the Islamic State for example, al-Nusra has built considerable local Syrian acceptance, including among major insurgent groups. It is reportedly considering disassociating itself from al-Qaeda to further bind itself with other Syrian insurgent groups. It will be increasingly difficult to target al-Nusra without harming civilians and other opposition fighters. Even if the United States and Russia do so with relative success, Syrians fighting Assad know the end-results will be a weakened insurgency, an intact regime, and a legitimized Russian role in Syria. Just as predictably, this will further radicalize both insurgents and civilians in targeted areas, especially as the JIG permits regime artillery and rocket strikes on opposition territory where the United States and Russia will also be targeting.
Those wanting to fight extremists and end the Syrian war must concede that any counter-Nusra plan should not strengthen the regime, whose military confidence remains the main driver of radicalization and obstacle to a negotiated settlement. An isolated military effort against al-Nusra would greatly improve Assad’s military position. Al-Nusra should be destroyed of course, but the JIG as currently conceived would very likely sabotage broader U.S. counterterrorism and strategic interests in Syria. An anti-Nusra effort should instead be paired with direct and proxy military pressure on the regime to prevent its capitalizing on a post-Nusra opposition’s weakness. This could include increased qualitative military support to vetted insurgents and a U.S. commitment to punishing any regime targeting of civilians. There are other means, but the aim is to make the military option unpalatable to the regime. Al-Nusra should not be targeted at the price of condemning Syria to endless war and terrorism. If unaccompanied by robust U.S. measures to protect a weakening insurgency and contain an emboldened regime, the JIG will probably destroy the Syrian opposition, rule out any negotiated settlement, and replace one set of radicals with another.
BUT what happens if in fact JaN splits formally from AQ and aligns itself with a number of the FSA units?????
Which BTW is currently about to happen….
THIS cannot be the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry strategy??????
750 medical personnel killed in Syria,698 killed in attacks carried out by govt forces & their Russian allies:@P4HR
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2016/07/24/intense-airstrikes-syria-aleppo-province-hit-clinics/rVQadVyFZHwZekIHPZ9IrN/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter …
This Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH truly do need to revisit their concept of FP…”not to do stupid shit” UNQUOTE…as it is failing badly contributing to the US being openly and clearly complicit in Assad and Putin’s genocide and war crimes…..
Awesome, powerful & shocking article by Samer Attar, after 2 weeks in #Aleppo…
The US Govt *must* do more, now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini…583_story.html
A doctor’s plea to President Obama: Please act to save civilians in Syria
Quote:
Samer Attar, a surgeon with Northwestern Medicine in Chicago, is a volunteer with the Syrian American Medical Society and the Aleppo City Medical Council.
“Please don’t cut off my leg,” a Syrian man pleaded. He had been shopping when a missile hit a crowded market. The blast seared off his hair and charred his face. He could not see that his leg was hanging by a thread of flesh and could not be saved. His screams were amplified by the echoes of the dozens just as horrifically injured around him.
I am an American surgeon who recently spent two weeks working in an underground hospital in eastern Aleppo, Syria. I have been there a few times, and each time I go, I descend into lower depths of hell. It’s shocking how the very same inhuman conditions have been allowed to continue for years.
The path to this hell is Castello Road — which was the last remaining road leading into rebel-held Aleppo when I was there. The road smells of burned metal and rotten flesh, and it is littered with charred vehicles. Plumes of smoke scatter the horizon. Gutted homes with pancaked roofs, exposed wires and twisted rebar line the sides. At every moment, you feel you may be hit by a bomb or a rocket.
Inside the city, the screech of jets, the whirring of helicopters, the vibrating blasts of mortar shells and barrel bombs, the incessant ricochet of bullets — these sounds and sensations rarely stop. Civilians still manage to live there. They would rather die at home than live in a tent or drown in a boat, or they are simply too poor, too crippled, too sick or too defiant to leave their homes.
The hospital where I worked has been attacked so many times by airstrikes that it has been driven literally underground — with a ramp leading into the basement. Scalpels are dull, anesthesia is a luxury, sterility is an approximation.
Inside, the scenes are grim.
On July 1, a rocket hit a nearby marketplace. The hospital shook from the blast. The victims were not terrorists or soldiers. They were civilians shopping for the upcoming Eid celebration. Twenty-five people were killed. Dozens more were injured. There were not enough beds, so patients were placed on floors smeared with blood and body parts, with barely a place to step. Dead bodies were piled into the street to make room for incoming wounded.
The screaming never let up. Children covered in blood and dust and pockmarked with shrapnel screamed for their parents and siblings. Some would be reunited whole; others would learn whom they had lost, or which of their children’s limbs were missing or mutilated. Some had the bone shards of disintegrated bystanders embedded in their skin — routine findings after such attacks.
I saw a child, breathing but silent, with severe burns and his intestines protruding from his belly. His skin and hair were burned off. He died a couple of days later. A 5-year-old had just died before him due to respiratory failure — shrapnel from a bomb cut his spinal cord and paralyzed him from the chest down. One surgeon cut open a man’s chest in a last-ditch effort to clamp a bleeding vessel near the heart. It worked temporarily, but the man had lost too much blood, and there was no more blood to give him. Two children would later bleed to death in the operating room for similar reasons. I did an above-knee amputation on a stretcher in a hallway because all the operating rooms were full. Others whose limbs were traumatically amputated in the attack had to sit with tourniquets until an operating room opened. We later learned that a child had been decapitated by the blast.
Such slaughter occurred daily. Here, innocent civilians being blinded, amputated, burned, paralyzed, crushed and mutilated by bombs is the routine. Here, the world has shown little solidarity with innocents being massacred. This was not the work of the Islamic State. The terrorism I saw in Aleppo came from helicopters and jets in the sky.
I asked one nurse if he ever gets scared and how he manages the exhaustion. He replied, “This is Aleppo. We don’t have time to be scared. We are being crushed like bugs daily, and the world has abandoned us. Pretty soon we may be permanently sieged, cut off. But it is our duty to be here, and who will help these people if we leave them?”
A few days after I left, the Castello Road was cut. Russian jets and Syrian government soldiers bomb and shoot anything that moves. Before, passage was a roll of the dice. Now it is a death sentence.
I had to say goodbye to my Syrian friends and colleagues knowing that soon they would be cut off from the outside world, left to suffer and starve. I have no other words to describe the fear, the horror and the urgency of what I witnessed there.
I plead with the Obama administration to act. It must boldly confront Russia to halt the bombardment of Aleppo and Castello Road, the only humanitarian supply line to hundreds of thousands of people in eastern Aleppo. It must pressure and threaten the Syrian government to do the same. It must enforce a no-fly zone, using coalition air power already in place and in force against the Islamic State. All sieges must be lifted in accordance with U.N. Security Council resolutions. The Castello Road must remain open.
Innocent people are dying on all sides in Syria, but it is time to let the Syrian government know that the world will act upon a red line against its disproportionate crimes and atrocities.
We now see just how the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH has actually supported the Putin/Assad genocide and war crimes and basically destroyed 70 years of US FP in the ME……..and that is really doing something totally “stupid”….
RUS defence minister’s “humanitarian operation” / exit from rebel districts in #Aleppo coincides w/#Assad’s amnesty. https://twitter.com/ArtWendeley/stat…81023168921601 …
THE last time Russia offered a so call “safe corridor” in eastern Ukraine they slaughtered hundreds of unarmed UAF personnel and took tens of prisoners…..
“HumOp” started this morning
They opened a street in the center.
People have the choice: Flee or die.
And if they leave rebel districts, their fate is more than uncertain.
#Assad has 150.000 in prisons.
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
Make no mistake, #Russia played key role in closing the siege on #Aleppo.
Now at advantage, it offers a way out that few will take.
Assad’s “amnesty” reflects the same strategy: offer a way out, but when 90% rebels refuse, justify “terrorist” label & continued war.
Russia playing it smart in #Syria:
Depopulate #Aleppo, leaving only armed groups – who will not surrender – & then justify future siege.
The Obama/Rhodes and Kerry WH truly appear to believe they can actually “trust” Putin…..which he has repeatedly shown he cannot be trusted…..
REMEMBER in 2014 this following Obama public statement…
“we will judge Putin on his actions not his words”…..?????
REMEMBER when Assad gave an interview and stated he would recapture Aleppo and the West together with Putin indicated he was crazy for saying it…THEN recently the Syrian Russian Ambassador stated Assad is not interested in capturing Aleppo…..???????
Pictures
#Russia dropped some Russian food over #AleppoUnderSiege today.
The operation & closure was LONG-PLANNED.
BUT BOMBS five hospitals and a blood bank and destroys the UN Food Warehouse…that is the Putin Obama/Kerry want to “trust”…..
BreakingReport
After dropping leaflets, #Assad soldiers shoot at civilians, trying to leave
Here is one source, I can reveal, saying despite text messages and leaflets, not a single exit for civilians opened.
To be crystal clear:
#Russia signed the CoH on Feb26
#Russia fully ignored it since then
#Russia enabled Assad to besiege Aleppo
Really hard to watch. Syrian child lost his family by Russian airstrikes recites Quran while weeping
Direct result by a WH unwilling to “do anything stupid”…..
Russia systematically strikes & destroys Aleppo bakeries, markets & hospitals then drop this small amount of food with a flyer saying “surrender”.
Even in the face of constant ground fighting and constant Russian/Assad air strikes a highly successful withdrawal of fighters and civilians was conducted……
Assad forces in Bani_Zayd district
NOT A SINGLE civilian of the formerly 10.000+ left to greet the “liberators”…
MSF International
✔ @MSF #Syria “If the attacks on health facilities do not stop, soon there will be no more medical services available in east Aleppo”
AND there are currently an estimated 350,000 inside East Aleppo…
CENTCOM commander Votel calls siege of Aleppo a “human disaster.” 350,000 stuck in city under Syrian and Russian bombardments
CURRENTLY 1M besieged Syrians …besieged by Assad regimes, Hezbollah and Iranian IRGC and Shia militias….
How come, two decades after we promised “never again”, we allow a new Srebrenica every six months in Aleppo?
Least we forget…….
17 years ago, the same Sergei Shoigu opened a “humanitarian corridor” out of Grozny. It went as well as you’d expect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Grozny_refugee_convoy_shooting …
Reference the split of the AQ proxy in Syria JaN from AQ and it’s renaming to JFS.
Voice of America
✔ @VOANews Syrian Rebel Realignment Likely as al-Qaida Leader Blesses Split
http://bit.ly/2ar3KII
Extensively carried on the Syrian thread……five days ago when it appears western MSM knew nothing about it as did not apparently the Obama WH….
Taken from the Syrian thread….
OUTLAW 09
ISIS broke ties with Al Qaeda years ago. In my opinion, the new move will complicate the situation for the rebels & help Nusra. Here’s how:
Nusra’s move won’t make it easier for countries like Qatar & Turkey to support it. No, it’ll make it harder for them to support other groups
The US will go ahead to uproot Nusra. It’s now easier, not more difficult, to lump like-minded groups with it. Those that cooperate with it.
Before, it was easier to say: Ahrar is Syrian not AQ like Nusra. Now it’s about Syria’s jihadis, none is foreign (ISIS, Fath al-Sham, Ahrar)
CrowBat response
I disagree here.
Surely, at the first look, it does look that way. Then, hand at heart, whether it’s ‘Jabhat an-Nusra’ or ‘Jabhat Fateh ash-Sham’, it’s a ‘wolf in sheepskin’ at best.
But, that’s not important. Important is the following:
1.) The West has completely abandoned not only the Syrian insurgents, but Syria as a country and a nation, and especially any sort of Syrians in general (especially those wishing to live in a pluralist and peaceful country).
2.) People in the West – in general, but politicians, intel etc. too – actually barely pay attention at the war in Syria. Plus, all think that all Syrian insurgents are ‘al-Qaida any way’. So, please: who to hell shall care?
Something like ‘transformation of the JAN into the JFS’ is just ‘nothing special’ for majority of people here.
3.) The JFS is now free to complete the take-over of the insurgency in Aleppo and Idlib Governorates. Clearly, this is going to mean that (at least this part of) the revolution is stolen by the worst sort of a mix of local Wahhabists and foreign Jihadists.
But, as said above: who cares? Everybody thinks that’s the way this revolution developed right from the start. So, why think anything changed now…?
4.) And finally… Turkey and Qatar can say, ‘stupid Westerners: you can’t blame them they’re al-Qaida; they officially distanced themselves from your enemies; so shut the f..k up.’
And the West will have to shut the f..k up, like it already shut the f..k up about such things like Qatar supporting the JAN, or the regime being supported by at least four major groups considered terrorist organizations in the West (namely the IRGC, Hezbollah, PFLP-GC and the PLA).
BTW this completely checkmates the US…as JaN with it’s formal ties to AQ was declared a “terrorist grouping”.
BUT behold they split from AQ and formed a new group….BTW neither the older name JaN nor the new name JFS HAVE ever declared the West their enemy nor have they ever attacked the US nor have they killed a single US citizen AND now they have declared war on Assad, Iran and IS.
What more can the US want????
A number of ME SMEs largely ignored in the US MSM and the Obama WH have been predicting this move for months and that the non action by the
Obama WH will in the end drive Syrians straight into the arms of jihadists that are not moderates such as the FSA.
THAT is exactly what happens when there is a FP of “doing nothing stupid”……
For those in the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH who somehow have yet to figure out that there is a five year long genocide occurring in Syria being driven by Assad and now by Russia……who BTW this WH still wants to work with as they “trust” what Putin has been telling them……
ITV News
✔ @itvnews ‘I’m pulling dead children from rubble’: British volunteer’s insight into besieged Aleppo
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-07-28/british-rescue-worker-describes-having-to-pull-dead-children-from-rubble-after-syria-airstrikes/ …
The White House is as complicit as the criminals in Kremlin & Damascus
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article…-in-syria.html …
WHY does the Obama WH give the Russians a “pass” when they commit war crimes and contribute to Assad’s genocide……????
1. the US could not figure out who conducted accurate and precise night time air strikes on hospitals and IDP camps
2. the US could not figure out who was dropping cluster, incendiary and thermobaric munitions on civilians OR if it cluster munitions were being used at all….
3. the US could not figure out who was bombing market places and bakeries….
Syria No Russia’n humanitarian corridor in Aleppo’s Bustan al-Qaser district
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF0Cxvc13fM …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.194988&lon=37.146428&z=16&m=b …
Putin propaganda
AND the Obama WH wanted to “trust” Putin ……..??