Geography Strikes Back

The subtitle says it all:

“To understand today’s global conflicts, forget economics and technology and take a hard look at a map, writes Robert Kaplan.”

This is why I think Military Geography should be a key part of any Professional Military Education curriculum (along with History, Theory, Operational Art, and Strategy) or any undergraduate or graduate program in security studies!!

Economics and technology are intertwined with geography. All three drive the need for a Navy and Marine Corps since so much of the world is ocean. The lack of air bases with adequate terrain and infrastructure at compromise Pacific distances from China is another example.

The tyranny of Pacific distances is why prepositioning is critical and the forward presence of the Army in Korea and the Marines in Japan should be retained. Ground forces are less susceptible to missile fires (if warned and air-defended) and their presence on allied territory assures that those allies join any fight and do not feel abandoned as economic and military allies.

Technology in the form of strategic and intratheater airlift and sealift is also related to geography. Where there are ample air bases and ports, deployment can occur to multiple locations. When allied geography is adjacent to a conflict, forcible entry may not be necessary. The east side of Taiwan and large center mountains provide somewhat of a non forcible entry capability to that eastern shore. Island hopping by helicopters assists the same way from the Philippines and Japan. Where fuel sources and infrastructure already exist, the costs of war are far less. It was far easier to support Vietnam where all battlefields were relatively close to ports, than Iraq and Afghanistan that were much farther away.

The nature of terrain and weather, inherent in METT-TC and geography, are also related to technology and economics. Korean and Afghan mountains and Korean rice paddies inflict a geographic nightmare for the attacker and favor the defender and guerilla. However, like Vietnam, forward deployed forces could be easily resupplied in Korea and troops in MRAP, Bradleys, and tanks can largely shrug off TBM. Helicopters and other fighter airpower also will reign supreme in areas with mountains and vast desert distances with few roads. In Korea, that airpower has fuel access readily at hand. Not so much in Iraq and Afghanistan when its internal supplies were sabotaged or nonexistent due to economics.

I still wonder why Saudi Arabia and Turkey don’t make a deal and attack Syria from the north and south (making a deal with Jordan) and split the Sunni Syrian territory between them. It would provide water pipeline access to Saudi Arabia where so much desalinization requires so much energy. A recent article speculates that Saudis might import energy by 2030 and other articles discuss water shortages worldwide with only 3% of the total being non-salt water. It would allow oil pipelines to the Mediterranean and Turkey to bypass the Straits of Hormuz. It would encircle Iraq (and indirectly Iran) and provide a place for Iraqi Sunnis to migrate, if desired.

Another article in today’s Real Clear World speculates that one reason the Chinese claim the South China Sea is to make us standoff further with aerial intelligence assets. Technology like Global Hawk and Reaper allow monitoring China from just outside the 12 mile limit, and a UCLASS would allow the same…with less risk of an international incident inherent in shooting down a manned aircraft.

Obviously, ice breaker and sub tech are a factor in the arctic where economics will drive oil exploration in a harsh environment. Airpower will be essential there, as well. It will be a situation not unlike the South China Sea with many nations adjacent to the arctic and all claiming some oil drilling rights.

Another excerpt from his book mentioned the Caspian sea area and the oil sources of those other “stans,” coupled with the strategic location of Azerbaijan. If Israel attacks Iran and uses Azerjaiban which is then attacked by Iran, it would result in the U.S. being invited into that territory to surround Iran militarily and secure the oil supplies in that area.