Cut the Army, Forget Counterinsurgency (Updated)
Obama’s Favorite Think Tank: Cut the Army, Forget Counterinsurgency by Spencer Ackerman, Wired’s Danger Room. Bluf:
The Obama administration’s favorite defense think tank was once a hothouse of counterinsurgency theory. But now that the government is trying to crawl out of its massive debt, the Center for a New American Security is less about big ground conflicts and more about how to shrink the defense budget. First on the chopping block, according to its forthcoming blueprint for defense cuts: counterinsurgency. Next: the Army and Marines who wage it.
“Extended counterinsurgency operations” are passe once the U.S. draws down in Afghanistan, says Nora Bensahel, a defense expert at CNAS, as the think tank is ubiquitously known in Washington. “We’re judging that a less-likely scenario.” …
More on Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in the Age of Austerity from the Center for a New American Security:
The Budget Control Act of 2011 has set the government on a path to dramatically reduce spending over the next decade, and a congressional "super committee" is now seeking to trim spending by more than $1 trillion beyond the cuts already enacted this year. As additional cuts are made, we must ask: How can the United States responsibly and effectively maximize its security in this era of growing fiscal austerity?
Authored by Center for a New American Security (CNAS) experts LTG David W. Barno, USA (Ret.), Dr. Nora Bensahel and Travis Sharp, the forthcoming report Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of Austerity answers this question and highlights the implications of tough budget cuts on America's military capabilities. Hard Choices outlines four budget cut scenarios and evaluates possible trade-offs among force structure, end strength, procurement and overhead. Barno, Bensahel and Sharp also offer several potential reforms to military pay and benefits.
On October 7, 2011, CNAS will release Hard Choices at an event featuring a discussion with the report authors and leading defense and budget experts Gordon Adams, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center, and Tom Donnelly, Resident Fellow and Director of the Center for Defense Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. RSVP online here.
Copies of Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of Austerity will be available at the event on October 7 and a light breakfast will be served.
Update: Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of Austerity is now posted at CNAS.
What seems to be missed in many of these discussions is the direct relationship between efforts at regime change and involvement in large scale COIN. Aside from insurgencies that we’ve created through regime change, there’s not an insurgency on the planet that demands anything more than a limited FID role from the US: we’re only doing large-scale COIN in places where we chose to remove governments and install new ones.
If we take on regime change, we take on large-scale COIN to go with it. That’s inevitable. If we don’t want to fight large-scale insurgencies, we have to write regime change out of the list of policy options.
The business of America is business. That hasn’t changed. You are looking only at defense. You may not have noticed but the “war” of influence around the world has shifted to economics with the western powers pitted against the influence of China. You may want to rethink “why” we would want to be involved in some of these locations, particularly ones with large populations that reflect future markets or have natural resources we covet.
The business of America may be business, but America has a long history of conflicts that don’t make even the most vestigial business sense, Afghanistan among them.
We may be involved in some competition for influence with China and others. It’s not war, and we gain nothing by trying to pretend it is. Military involvement doesn’t necessarily expand influence, and can often reduce it. If we’re looking it China, isn’t it odd that they seem quite able to maintain and expand business and influence without mucking about in military adventures and COIN morasses?