Karzai’s Governing Strategy
Karzai’s Governing Strategy:
A Threat to ISAF COIN Implementation
by James Sisco
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Karzai’s initial governing strategy, focused at centralizing power within the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA), has failed. He perceives that US and international com-munity support for his regime is eroding. Therefore, Karzai is systematically build-ing a coalition of regional powerbrokers in preparation for a post-American Afghanistan. By strategically reshuffling provincial, district, and ministerial positions, Karzai is gradually reproducing the powerbrokers’ political and economic patronage structures he tried for seven years to displace with his own. He is doing so to create the political space required to maintain his family’s influence beyond the 2014 elections or to exit the presidency intact.
Implementing this strategy allows President Karzai to achieve his objectives due to three effects. First, and most importantly, he begins to break his dependence on the international community for his administration’s survival. Second, he is able to leverage remaining international assistance to secure continued powerbroker interest in the short-term viability of GIRoA. Finally, Karzai can choose to reconcile with the Taliban to reinforce his bargaining position. This new Karzai governing strategy mitigates the conse-quences of the impending decline in international support, though at the expense of the Afghan population and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) counterinsurgency (COIN) implementation.
An effective counter to Karzai’s power sharing strategy is a bottom-up, grass roots COIN implementation that directs international resources toward village-level and civil society capacity. GIRoA, the Taliban, and local powerbrokers have very little legitimacy with the population. Building legitimate, accountable governance capacity at the village level buys ISAF valuable time for reform efforts to take hold. Rebalancing Afghan society, so that the local areas exert more influence and checks on powerbrokers and GIRoA, stands to make the entire political structure more accountable.
Download The Full Article: Karzai’s Governing Strategy
LCDR James Sisco is an Afghan Hand currently serving in Afghanistan at ISAF HQ within the Force Reintegration Directorate. He previously serviced in Afghanistan in 2005-2006 as the military liaison for President Karzai. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ISAF, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
