COIN Manpower Ratios: Debunking the 10 to 1 Ratio and Surges
COIN Manpower Ratios: Debunking the 10 to 1 Ratio and Surges
by Joshua Thiel
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“Conventional wisdom holds that a government must expend ten times as much as insurgents in their efforts to contain insurgency” (Mataxis, 1994, p.7). Authors, experts, and military historians establish a variety of ratios for military engagements as a way of forecasting requirements and predicting outcomes. The U.S. Army teaches Second Lieutenants that three to one numerical superiority is the planning factor for a successful attack. However, in order to account for shifting demographics and various operating environments, the U.S. Army established five to one as the tactical number for an urban attack. Similarly in the Department of the Army’s Handbook on Counter Insurgency, produced in 2007 under the direction of General David Petraeus, references the mythical ten to one force ratio prescribed for counterinsurgency (Department of Defense [DoD], 2007, p. 1-13).
Quantifying attacks is a method for conventional planning; it helps turn the fog of war into black and white numbers that end-state minded Americans like and understand: how much will this cost, and can I afford it. However, an insurgency is like no other type of conflict; it exists within a state of gray, with no black or white solution. Analysts constantly search for numbers on manpower, material, and money in order to predict the outcome of insurgencies or to prescribe recommendations for winning. The common numerical comparisons used by authors and military personnel to analyze insurgencies are governed by what is known as the 10 to 1 ratio or expenditure ratio, the minimum requirement to defeat an insurgency. Even U.S. Presidents have used a 10 to 1 ratio as a basis of strategy. The Reagan Administration elected to increase financial pressure on the Soviet forces in Afghanistan, by facilitating the insurgent’s battle of exhaustion, based on the ten to one ratio (Mataxis, 1994, p. 7). The strategy worked and United States assistance allowed the Mujahedeen to erode the Soviet will to invest the resources and manpower necessary to succeed in Afghanistan. However, the Soviet counterinsurgency in Afghanistan is clouded by the same question overarching all counterinsurgency, does victory or defeat rest on the ratio of manpower, or are policies and implementation the decisive components of counterinsurgency?
The 10 to 1 ratio is referred to so frequently that it has become a documented fact, yet remains a scientifically unfounded statistic. Without a documented source of statistical analysis on the 10 to 1 ratio; the ratio is only an assumption. This paper provides statistical data to prove that the 10 to 1 ratio is an invalid ratio; and thereby, the 10 to 1 ratio an invalid tool for analyzing and prescribing manpower for counterinsurgency operations. The data reveals a new ratio and draws conclusions on the relevance of prescribed force ratios for counterinsurgency.
Download The Full Article: COIN Manpower Ratios: Debunking the 10 to 1 Ratio and Surges
Major Joshua Thiel is a United States Army Special Forces Officer and graduate of the Naval Postgraduate School with a Masters of Science in Defense Analysis and a graduate of American Military University with a Masters of Arts in Low Intensity Conflict. His undergraduate degree in Economics is from the United States Military Academy at West Point. He has deployed to Iraq, Thailand, and Papua New Guinea, and has served in both the Infantry and Special Forces. He is currently preparing to return to the 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne).
