A disturbing repot on Baghlan province in today’s Wall Street Journal

An article in today’s Wall Street Journal discussed the deteriorating security situation in Baghlan province, north of Kabul. According to the article, Taliban popularity is increasing because the movement, although still unpopular, compares increasingly favorably with the government. In addition, anti-government resistance in the north is now multi-ethnic and effectively tailors its political strategy and tactics to local conditions. Some excerpts:

“People don’t love the Taliban—but if they compare them to the government, they see the Taliban as the lesser evil,” said Baghlan Gov. Munshi Abdul Majid, an appointee of President Hamid Karzai.

As a result, the Taliban are winning support beyond the Pashtun community, their traditional base. In Baghlan, where Pashtuns account for less than one-quarter of the province’s 804,000 residents, the insurgency is now drawing ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks and other minorities previously seen as unsympathetic to the rebel cause.

“It’s clear that the insurgents concentrate their efforts on those areas where they can hope to reach a significant impact,” explained Maj. Gen. Hans-Werner Fritz, the German commander of 11,000 coalition troops across Afghanistan’s nine northern provinces. “The northern part could become the game-changer for all of Afghanistan.”

Baghlan is of strategic importance, Gen. Fritz added, because most supplies from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan pass through, including most of the coalition’s fuel. The power line from Uzbekistan, the main source of Kabul’s electricity, also runs through here.

ISAF established the Northern Distribution Network to reduce its logistical dependence on its supply routes through Pakistan. A corollary aim was to reduce Pakistan’s strategic leverage over the military campaign in Afghanistan. Increased Taliban activity in Baghlan and other northern provinces may be designed to put the northern supply routes under threat, reestablishing Taliban and Pakistani leverage.

I recommend reading the whole article.