Afghanistan: The De-evolution of Insurgency
Afghanistan: The De-evolution of Insurgency
by Kevin Meredith, Sergio Villarreal, and Mitchel Wilkinson
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Given the complex nature of conflict in Afghanistan and the history of external pressures in the region, there exists a need to constantly reexamine the local situation. The dynamic nature of tribal cultures in South West Asia and the shifting relationships that occur at local levels demand revisiting the question of military strategies and reassessment of US and Coalition involvement in the Afghan theater. Afghanistan, as a country ensconced in conflict for centuries, is homeland to numerous ethnic groups. It is further divided into hundreds of tribes and villages; all with varied needs, wants and demands. Scholars have argued that the root causes of regional and local conflict stem from geographic location, imperialist domination and colonial oppression. This article will not focus on these root causes, though important to the present situation. Instead, this article will focus on the present conflict and the label of Insurgency that it bears. In this article we will examine contemporary definitions of insurgencies as presented in The US Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24), compare the insurgency in Afghanistan to other insurgencies and present an argument that the present situation in Afghanistan is in-fact, not an insurgency. In our conclusion, we will present a theory that the situation in Afghanistan more closely resembles a synergy of criminal elements that have coalesced into a loosely organized front to form an anti-government, anti-coalition movement that has insurgent elements involved. Our theory also suggests that there is a cyclical nature of conflict in Afghanistan that includes the growth of insurgency and the de-evolution of insurgency as a part of a constantly changing Chaotic Cannibalistic State; a state of being that consists of groups of people in perpetual conflict, feeding on each other until a foreign body is introduced, at which point they frenzy on the foreign body, sapping strength and resources until the foreign body must limp away.
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Colonel Kevin Meredith is an Armor Officer who served in various command and staff positions in combat tours to Iraq and Afghanistan. Currently, he serves as Team Leader of a Human Terrain Analysis Team in Southern Afghanistan.
Major (ret.) Sergio Villarreal is a PhD Candidate in Psychology who serves as a social scientist on a Human Terrain Analysis Team in southern Afghanistan. He has experience as a military advisor in Colombia and Afghanistan.
Dr. Mitchel Wilkinson is a social scientist on a Human Terrain Analysis Team in Southern Afghanistan. Previously, he served in advisory duties in Afghanistan, Australia, New Zealand, and Vietnam, and he is a former instructor at the University of Oregon and Oregon State University.
