Deterring Al Qaeda after Iraq
Deterring Al Qaeda after Iraq:
A Critique of Paul Davis’ RAND Study
by Daniel R. DePetris
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Today marks the last day of Operation Iraqi Freedom. So what? At what cost? To what end? Ever since the successful conclusion of the Cold War, U.S. academics and policymakers have frequently championed deterrence as a military concept. This, of course, is not without substance. Through a combination of nuclear weapons, large bases overseas, and the potential for quick military action, Washington was able to change the Soviet Union’s behavior from a force who aggressively tried to expand communist ideology in the 1960’s to a reserved and degraded confederation by the time of its collapse.
Deterrence is not just about the past, however. Today, the White House uses deterrence throughout its foreign policy, both to keep adversaries in check and to prevent violence from spiraling out of control once conflict is initiated. After Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, deterrence worked on Iraq quite significantly until the collapse of his regime twelve years later. The threat of mutually assured destruction continues to prevent the North Koreans (however “crazy”) from invading its southern neighbor, lest the US military be drawn into the fighting. The most contemporary example of deterrence at work is the containment of the Iranians, who have become isolated in terms of the international community and boxed-in by U.S. forces along its southern coast (via U.S. naval vessels) and its western border (U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan).
Paul Davis- a researcher at the RAND Corp. – is now taking the concept further than it has ever gone before. In a recent study that was just published by the RAND Corp’s National Defense Research Institute, Davis tries to assess whether old-fashioned deterrence theory can work on one of America’s most dangerous contemporary foes: Al’Qaeda (AQ). Is it possible for the United States to deter AQ from launching large-scale attacks on American targets? And if so, can deterrence apply to other terrorist groups as well, say the Pakistani Taliban or Lashkar e-Taiba in South Asia?
Download the Full Article: Deterring Al Qaeda after Iraq
Daniel R. DePetris is an M.A. candidate in the Political Science Department of the Maxwell School at Syracuse University. He is pursuing a specialization in security studies from the Institute of National Security and Counterterrorism (INSCT). The views expressed in this article are his own and do not reflect the views of any organization.
