Small Wars Journal

Islamic State Brutality Could Backfire

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 10:51pm

Islamic State Brutality Could Backfire

Barbara Slavin, Voice of America

The group that calls itself the Islamic State (IS) is reportedly expanding its reach in the Middle East and North Africa. But it may start losing its appeal to potential recruits through actions that expose its extreme brutality.

The release of a gruesome video showing the burning to death of a Jordanian pilot– weeks before IS offered to trade him for a female terrorist jailed in Jordan – exposed the depths of the organization's cynicism and sadism. It also united Jordanians, who had been somewhat ambivalent members of a 60-nation anti-IS coalition, in demands for revenge. On Wednesday, Jordan executed two militants at dawn.

Rather than dissuade Jordan from continuing its participation in the coalition against IS, the execution of Lt. Muath al-Kaseasbeh could increase popular support for Jordan to resume flying missions against the terrorist group.  Another member of the coalition, the United Arab Emirates, had suspended flying after Kaseasbeh’s capture, demanding better U.S. resources to recover downed pilots; it remains to be seen how that government will react.

One positive development would be if Kaseasbeh’s death helped persuade foreign governments and individuals not to accede to IS demands for ransoms and prisoner swaps in return for captured nationals.

The proposed trade of Kaseasbeh – and a Japanese journalist who was subsequently beheaded – came to naught when IS failed to produce proof that the pilot was still alive. The Jordanian was captured Dec. 26 when his F-16 went down in northern Syria and apparently was executed only a few days later.

Given the events surrounding the Jordanian’s murder, it is clear that there can be no assurance that the jihadis are telling the truth when they claim that their captives have not already been killed. If fewer ransoms are paid, that will dry up the group's resources – already depleted because of falling oil sales  – and perhaps discourage what has become a wave of abductions.

The savage killing of Kaseasbeh could also have an impact on IS recruitment.

Up until now, the group has been expanding its appeal across the Middle East to North Africa and attracting recruits from Western Europe and even the United States who are lured in some cases by the notion of creating a new Islamic caliphate.

According to testimony Tuesday by Marine Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, IS has extended its reach beyond Iraq and Syria to “ungoverned and under-governed areas” in in Algeria, Egypt and Libya.

A recent report by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization at King’s College, London, put the number of foreigners who have joined jihadist groups in Iraq and Syria at over 20,000 – more than the number that joined the jihad against Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s. In the past, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia have been the origin of the largest number of recruits – at least 1,500 each – with 500 coming from Germany and Britain and about a hundred from the United States.

The brutal execution of Kaseasbeh will provide ample new material for those who design public diplomacy campaigns on social media against jihadi recruitment. His death is a timely reminder that most of the victims of IS have been fellow Sunni Muslims.

Two weeks from now, the White House is due to hold a major conference on how to counter violent extremism

Initially expected to have a largely domestic focus – showcasing pilot projects in Boston, Los Angeles and Minneapolis -St. Paul — the meeting was expanded to include foreign officials in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris.

It would be sensible to invite Jordanians and other U.S. Arab allies to attend the meeting to discuss how to glean something positive from the nightmare that ended Kaseasbeh’s life. The latest events should inspire new efforts to persuade impressionable youth that the actions of IS are a perversion of the concept of holy war and a desecration of the most basic tenets of Islam.

Comments

Outlaw 09

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 9:24am

There has been some chatter on the net that the brutality of the IS videos is due simply to their running out of prisoners from western and other Arab allied countries thus they are prone to exploit each execution to get the max info war messaging they can get out to their global followers.

Mass executions of say Iraqi, Assad military or Kurds just does not get the media attention western prisoners get.

Sounds brutal but it seems to be a fact of life for IS these days as it is planned into their ground campaigns.

thedrosophil

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 9:05am

Two thoughts:

First: as Michael J. Totten rightly noted in October, ISIS/DAESH brutality is precisely what is drawing many to fill its ranks. (<A HREF="http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/islamic-state-…;)

Second: ISIS/DAESH brutality can only backfire if there's a credible alternative. We SWJ commentators can, should, and do debate the history of small wars, often quite vigorously. One thing we can agree upon is that, at least at the tactical and operational levels, success in small wars has typically involved providing a preferable alternative for the populace to choose. Reactionary Sunnis in Anbar didn't spearhead the Anbar Awakening because they loved the United States Marine Corps; they did so because the Islamic State in Iraq was torturing children to death, <I>and</I> the Marines provided what as at that time a preferable, <I>sustainable</I> alternative. In my favorite case study, the Dhofar Rebellion, the Dhofaris didn't love the new Sultan or identify with the British and Omani troops, but the Sultan and his allies provided a sustainable alternative to the PFLO(AG)'s brutality. Without a sustainable alternative which is preferable to the populace in ISIS/DAESH-occupied terrority, their brutality will not backfire.