IRAQ
Top news from Iraq concerns an agreement between US and Iraqi negotiators on a withdrawal of all US combat forces from the country by 2011. Karen DeYoung and Sudarsan Raghavan of the Washington Post report, however, there are still several additional issues to be ironed out prior to a signed and sealed agreement including whether US troops will be subject to Iraqi law if accused of committing crimes.
... The question of immunity for US troops and Defense Department personnel from Iraqi legal jurisdiction -- demanded by Washington and rejected by Baghdad -- remained unresolved. Troop immunity, one US official said, "is the red line for us." Officials said they were still discussing language that would make the distinction between on- and off-duty activities, with provisions allowing for some measure of Iraqi legal jurisdiction over soldiers accused of committing crimes while off-duty.
But negotiators made progress on a specific timetable outlining the departure of US forces from Iraq, something Maliki is under considerable domestic political pressure to secure...
In an editorial the Washington Times raises several questions concerning the potential agreement.
... a number of provisions that are being talked about raise troubling questions. For example, there is the question of whether American contractors would be prosecuted in Iraqi courts. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the Bush administration "dropped its insistence that American contractors remain immune from Iraqi law." If that is true, it would be disturbing news indeed. Contractors like Blackwater International have played a critical role in providing security for Miss Rice and other State Department officials. While Iraq has made remarkable progress in many areas since the fall of Saddam Hussein, we have seen too many situations where Iraqi politicians have attempted to score easy political points by criticizing US contractors. The prosecution of contractors in Iraqi courts should be a non-starter, and American officials should be making that clear to their Iraqi counterparts.
A second - and far more important question - is whether US military personnel would have immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law...
More at the New York Times, Washington Times, Los Angeles Times. and Abu Muqawama.
Richard Oppel Jr., New York Times, is reporting the government of Iraq is taking aim at leaders of US-tied Sunni groups.
The Shiite-dominated government in Iraq is driving out many leaders of Sunni citizen patrols, the groups of former insurgents who joined the American payroll and have been a major pillar in the decline in violence around the nation.
In restive Diyala Province, United States and Iraqi military officials say there were orders to arrest hundreds of members of what is known as the Awakening movement as part of large security operations by the Iraqi military. At least five senior members have been arrested there in recent weeks, leaders of the groups say.
West of Baghdad, former insurgent leaders contend that the Iraqi military is going after 650 Awakening members, many of whom have fled the once-violent area they had kept safe. While the crackdown appears to be focused on a relatively small number of leaders whom the Iraqi government considers the most dangerous, there are influential voices to dismantle the American backed movement entirely...
IRREGULAR WARFARE
Carlo Munoz of Inside Defense (subscription required) reports a Department of Defense draft guidance on Irregular Warfare is under “senior-level review” with the final version scheduled for a late September release. Issues cited in the article include:
… US Special Operations Command, with support from US Joint Forces Command, is also in the midst of prepping a new capabilities-based assessment of its irregular warfare strategy…
The new DOD irregular warfare directive comprises the fields of counterterrorism, unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, counterinsurgency and stability operations under a single banner. But critics argue stability operations should not be included and would best be handled separately…
Rather than developing specific capability requirements, such as language proficiency or cultural awareness, for each of the IW discipline subsets, Pentagon decision-makers opted to consolidate those subset requirements into an overarching IW directive…
On the other hand… some elements of certain warfighting capabilities - related either to stability operations, COIN or counterterrorism -- might not fit under the IW banner. To that end, the official added it is not DOD's intent to shoehorn those capability requirements into the pending guidance…
For additional background on IW see the Irregular Warfare Joint Operating Concept. The stated purpose of the IW JOC is to describe how future joint force commanders will accomplish strategic objectives through the conduct of protracted IW on a global or regional scale. It identifies capabilities and capacities required to successfully prosecute IW. Many of the ideas advocated in this JOC are drawn from best practices of current conflicts and history.
THE LONG WAR
al Qaeda and the Taliban
Writing in a personal capacity, Richard Barrett, the UN's highest ranking official responsible for monitoring the activities of al Qaeda and the Taliban, presented a comprehensive assessment of the capabilities and intentions of these organizations yesterday in New York. Part of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence Future Actions Series, "Barrett's paper offers a personal blueprint for defeating al Qaeda and the Taliban with a precise mix of military and political means". Here are some key points from Barrett's assessment:
- The core al Qaeda leadership remains in place, but it is still far from recovering the position of strength it enjoyed in 2001.
- There has been a considerable backlash against al Qaeda-inspired violence across the Muslim world, with the result that even in places where al Qaeda used to be highly active - such as Iraq, Algeria, Egypt, and Saudi-Arabia - its campaign has lost traction and influence.
- The one geographical area where al Qaeda has retained influence, or even consolidated or increased its standing over the last three years, is the Afghan-Pakistan border region.
- The key to defeating al Qaeda will be to undermine its local base in the Afghan-Pakistan border area.
- It will be important to promote the drift of the Afghan Taliban away from al Qaeda, which could be achieved by allowing President Karzai more political room to negotiate a deal.
- al Qaeda will aim to provoke further intervention by foreign forces, knowing that this is the one thing all the tribes will combine to oppose.
Matt Armstrong at MountainRunner has more.
al Qaeda
A good companion piece to the ICRS assessment is an article published in April’s Proceedings entitled Capitalizing on al Qaeda's Mistakes by Colonel Mark Cancian, US Marine Corps (Retired). While the article's main foucus is on AQ in Iraq, Colonel Cancian does address AQ's inept attempt to expand its attacks outside that country. From the introduction:
Our arch enemy in the war against Islamic extremism has made some major miscues, and the Coalition has been able to take advantage of them.
In the war against Islamist extremists many observers have viewed al Qaeda as a collection of brilliant strategists - adaptable, flexible, culturally sensitive. In contrast, these observers often paint the United States as the opposite - stupid, slow moving, a dinosaur.
This is not the picture that has emerged, however, over the past two years in Iraq's al Anbar province (and in fact, increasingly across the rest of the country). In al Anbar, al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has made a series of tactical and strategic mistakes that Coalition forces were able to use to their advantage. That story has been widely reported in the press. However, the roots of these mistakes deserve more attention, because they indicate fundamental weaknesses in the organization's character and point to broader opportunities in the war.
And in a commentary piece in today's Washington Times, Austin Bay provides an anatomy of terror.
One reason the debate question, "Is terrorism warfare or crime?" irks me is that it is patently both...
Stopping the crimes financing the terrorists won't defeat terrorist organizations. However, focused countercrime operations will crimp their finances and, to use a term I heard a police counterterror officer use, "pressurize" the terrorists' environment. Gen. Petraeus' "Anaconda Strategy" in Iraq employs a number of anti-crime measures and anti-corruption measures, each one applying pressure to a terrorist organization...
RUSSIA
Michael Evans and Kevin Flynn of The Times quote military analysts as saying the "Russian fighting machine is showing its age."
... For an invading force from what used to be a military superpower, Russia's 58th Army did not look like a modern fighting unit. Victory came as a result of overwhelming numerical superiority and a textbook Soviet-style strategy based on detailed planning that leaves little room for flexibility. It was shock and awe by force of numbers, rather than by precision-guided weapons.
The Russians have learnt lessons from American campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan and from their own experiences in the Balkans, but the Georgia operation was old-style fighting with Cold War-era equipment.
The Russians arrived in Georgia not only with inadequately protected troop carriers but also lacking in airborne surveillance platforms to pinpoint targets for their gunners and bombers. They lost four aircraft, shot down by Russian-built Georgian anti-aircraft weapons...
Losing aircraft at the hands of such a tiny opponent was unfortunate. Losing their overall commander, who suffered shrapnel wounds as he travelled in an armoured convoy in South Ossetia, the breakaway Georgian region, looked like carelessness. General Anatoli Khrulyov, the head of the 58th Army, was in a convoy that appeared to lack air cover.
Perhaps, most embarrassingly, the Russians discovered that some of the Georgian equipment was more advanced than their own...
Apparently the Russians fared no better in the information sphere as Clifford Levy reports in the New York Times.
... Yet for all the government’s success at managing the news in Russia, it has seemed ill prepared to press its case internationally. It failed to grasp that the same figure it was mocking on its channels, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, was using his fluency in English to dominate coverage in the rest of the world...
It is not just Russia’s overall image that is at stake. Russia and Georgia have sought to convince the world that the other side is responsible for starting the conflict, committing atrocities and failing to abide by the cease-fire. While international observers will weigh in on many of these questions, the crisis is also being adjudicated in the court of public opinion, especially in Europe, which has become an arbiter between Washington and Moscow as tensions have grown...
US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
The Heritage Foundation just released a study on military demographics entitled Who Serves in the US Military? The Demographics of Enlisted Troops and Officers. The study, authored by Shanea Watkins, Ph.D. and James Sherk, expands on previous studies by using an improved methodology to study the demographic characteristics of newly commissioned officers and personnel who enlisted in 2006 and 2007. Here are some of the findings:
- US military service disproportionately attracts enlisted personnel and officers who do not come from disadvantaged backgrounds.
- Members of the all-volunteer military are significantly more likely to come from high-income neighborhoods than from low-income neighborhoods.
- American soldiers are more educated than their peers.
- Contrary to conventional wisdom, minorities are not overrepresented in military service.
- Similar to previous Heritage Foundation reports on the regional representation of troops, we find that the strong Southern military tradition continues with the 2006 and 2007 enlisted recruits. The South accounts for more than 40 percent of new enlistees—a proportional overrepresentation.
- The Northeast is underrepresented in the enlisted population, while the Midwest and West are roughly proportionally represented.
Study conclusion: The men and women who serve in America’s all-volunteer military do not come disproportionately from disadvantaged backgrounds. Instead, the opposite is true. Both active-duty enlisted troops and officers come disproportionately from high-income neighborhoods - a trend that has increased since 9/11.
America’s troops are highly educated. Enlisted recruits have above-average intelligence and are far more likely than their civilian peers to have a high school degree. Nearly all of the officer corps has at least a four-year college education - far greater than the rate in the civilian population. The racial composition of the military is similar to that of the civilian population, although whites and blacks are slightly overrepresented among enlisted recruits.
WE ARE SOLDIERS STILL
Jules Crittenden at Forward Movement:
“We Are Soldiers Still,” the follow-on to Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway’s Ia Drang epic, is now out. Joe told me a couple of months ago I get a nod in credits for calling attention to Sgt. John Eade’s remarkable story of fighting and surviving when the rest of his platoon had been killed around him...
MORE BOOKS
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
ENDNOTES
Exit Petraeus, Without Fanfare - Wall Street Journal editorial
Foreign Policy Watch on Iraq - New York Times opinion
US Contractors Shouldn't Face Iraqi Courts - Wall Street Journal opinion
Al-Qaeda's Female Bombers: Recruiting In Iraq - Threats Watch
64 in Pakistan Die in Bombing at Arms Plant - New York Times
Bombings at Pakistani Plant Kill 70 - Washington Post
Taliban Claims Responsibility for Pakistan Bombings - Voice of America
Attacks Highlight Renewed Strength of Taliban - Globe and Mail
'No Afghanistan Victory Without More Troops' - Daily Telegraph
Sarkozy Sets an Example on Afghanistan - Globe and Mail editorial
The Key to Rebuilding Afghanistan - Washington Post opinion
Russian Forces Show Signs of Retreat in Parts Of Georgia - Washington Post
In Georgia, a Claim Russia Is Making More Advances - New York Times
US Sees Much to Fear in a Hostile Russia - New York Times analysis
US Warships Run the Gauntlet with Georgia Aid - Danger Room
EUCOM Focused on Aid Missions, for Now - Stars and Stripes
Russia Should Return U.S. Humvees, Pentagon Spokesman Says - AFPS
Russia Suspends Cooperation With NATO - Voice of America
Why Georgia is Not Start of 'Cold War II' - Christian Science Monitor
Russia Growls, NATO Meows - Washington Post opinion
Europe's Security Dithering Endangers Us - Daily Telegraph opinion
What the West Can Do - Washington Post opinion
The World Reacts to Russia - Real Clear Politics opinion
Russia, Georgia & The Death of 1989 - The New Republic opinion
Can Small States Fight Like Insurgents? - CT Lab
Al-Qaida Claims Deadly Algeria Attacks - Associated Press
Israel Fears Russia May Sell Arms to Syria - Los Angeles Times
Israeli Minister Warns Against Early Peace - New York Times
Pakistan Names Date for Presidential Election - The Times
Kashmir Rumbles, Rattling Old Rivals - New York Times
Thousands March in Kashmir Valley - BBC News
Philippines Peace Deal with Muslim Rebels Collapses - Los Angeles Times
Philippines: Mess in Mindanao - Wall Street Journal opinion
Mexico Moves to Curb Drug Crime Wave - Los Angeles Times
Mr. Uribe’s Choice in Colombia - New York Times editorial
Zimbabwe: Dispute Over Parliament - New York Times
Peace Corps to Pare Ranks of Volunteers - Washington Post
Boeing Says It Might Exit Tanker Bidding - Washington Post
EVENTS OF INTEREST
11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.
16-18 September - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.
17 September - The Iranian Puzzle Piece: Understanding Iran in the Global Context (Public Event - Symposium). Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the by the Marine Corps University (MCU) and the Marine Corps University Foundation to enhance the overall understanding of Iran, exploring its internal dynamics, regional perspectives, and extra-regional factors and examining its near-term political and strategic options and their potential impact on the course of action of the United States and the USMC.
