Uncertain COINage by Dr. Geraint Hughes, Defence-in-Depth

Military manuals do not often attract readers from outside of the profession of arms, and the publication of the US Army/US Marine Corps’ manual on counter-insurgency (FM3/24) by the University of Chicago Press ten years ago was one of those rare occasions where military doctrine gained an audience beyond the armed forces. FM3/24 attracted wider attention because of Iraq, and the protracted insurgency in which US and Coalition forces had become embroiled after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime (March-April 2003). The US armed forces (the Army in particular) had focused almost exclusively on inter-state warfare, and as a result they were collectively unprepared for the challenges of occupying and pacifying Iraq following Saddam’s fall. Abu Ghraib, Haditha, the two battles of Fallujah, mounting American military casualties, and an increasingly disastrous sectarian war between Shiites and Sunnis forced the Army and Marines to rethink their approach to counterinsurgency (COIN). The adoption of FM3/24 – and the ‘surge’ of troops into Iraq in 2007-2008 – appeared to herald a ‘COIN revolution’ in American military thinking, and indeed one of its authors (General David Petraeus) became a household name as a consequence.

Britain also had a reality check over Iraq, and subsequently Afghanistan too. Before 2003 there was an academic and professional consensus that the British Army had an instinctive talent for COIN, based on their experiences fighting guerrillas and terrorists from Palestine in the 1940s to Northern Ireland (1969-1998). The experience of peace support operations (PSO) in the former Yugoslavia and Sierra Leone appeared to provide added justification for this myth, with squaddies being supposedly attuned to the complexities of ‘hearts and minds’; possessing the inherent ability to both cow potential adversaries while winning over the local populace with ‘soft posture’ patrolling and the ‘cultural understanding’ that came from phrase-book chit-chat. The increasingly violent occupation of Basra (2003-2007) and the ferocious fighting experienced in Helmand showed that in fact the British armed forces were no more masters of COIN than their superpower allies were…

Read on.

Pentagon: Airstrike Kills 150 Al-Shabab Fighters in Somalia

Dan Joseph, Voice of America

The Pentagon says a U.S. airstrike in central Somalia has killed more than 150 Al-Shabab militants who were preparing for a large-scale attack.

Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis told reporters Monday that the weekend attack targeted an Al-Shabab training camp about 195 kilometers north of the capital, Mogadishu.  He said both manned and unmanned aircraft were used in the strike.

Davis said the U.S. had learned the fighters were set to depart the camp, and "posed an imminent threat" to U.S. and African Union forces in Somalia.  

"Initial assessments are that more than 150 terrorist fighters were eliminated" in the attack, he said.

The Somali army commander in the region, Colonel Mohamed Omar, gave a death toll of 69 militants killed and 42 wounded, citing reports by local residents.  Omar added he expects the casualty total to rise.

Eyewitness Accounts

Witnesses tell VOA's Somali Service that the airstrike hit Al-Shabab's Raso training camp between the villages of Dharyiow and El-Dibi in the central Hiran region.  The witnesses say the aircraft made two passes over the camp, firing three missiles each time.

According to local villagers, Al-Shabab commanders were at the camp to oversee the graduation of hundreds of trainees when the airstrikes occurred.  There was no immediate word on whether any top Al-Shabab leaders were among those killed.

Under Surveillance

Pentagon spokesman Davis said the U.S. had watched the camp for several weeks before the attack.

Somali military officials believe the recruits were being prepared for attacks in Hiran and in Somalia's Middle Shabelle region.  

The U.S. has a small number of advisers in Somalia assisting the African Union force AMISOM, which is fighting Al-Shabab.   The Islamist militant group has been fighting to overthrow the Somali government since 2007.  

The U.S. has launched numerous airstrikes against the group, including one that killed the group's longtime leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane, in September 2014.