Joining us from Kabul, Afghanistan, is Laura King, reporter for The Los Angeles Times. She's recently been in the country's far eastern region, near the Pakistan border, at Forward Operating Base Salerno. Her piece in today's LA Times reports on a new wave of coordinated Taliban attacks.

Also from Kabul we're joined by Pamela Constable, reporter for The Washington Post. She's just back from Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand Province, the focal point of the current coalition push. She's also been in Faizabad recently, in the country's remote northeast.

From Hardin, Montana, we're joined by Gretchen Peters, a journalist who has covered the Afghanistan-Pakistan region for more than decade with the Associated Press and ABC News. She is author of the new book Seeds of Terror: How Heroin Is Bankrolling the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

From Monterey, California, we're joined by Kalev Sepp, professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. He is a retired Army lieutenant colonel and special forces officer. From 2007 to January 2009, he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Capabilities, helping to oversee global counterterrorism policy.

The New Fight in Afghanistan - Audio of today's program.

The Terrorist Threat to Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons - Shaun Gregory

The Significance of Qari Zain's Assassination in Pakistan - Rahimullah Yusufzai

Pakistan's New Offensive in South Waziristan - Samir Syed

A Diagnosis of Somalia's Failing Transitional Government - Anonymous

The Status of Conflict in the Southern and Central Regions of Somalia - Michael A. Weinstein

A New Phase of Resistance and Insurgency in Iranian Baluchistan - Chris Zambelis

Incorporating Law Enforcement Interrogation Techniques on the Battlefield - Gretchen Peters

Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity

Former presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami have now publicly questioned the legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad's reelection. In doing so, they have questioned the legitimacy of Supreme Ruler Khamenei's authority (see NYT, Economist). This is a dramatic development and almost guarantees a deep political crisis inside Iran.

The timing and manner of Rafsanjani and Khatami's falling-out is especially notable. Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had suppressed street protests, thus removing the pressure of a visible short-term crisis in the country. But in spite of that breathing space and after having several weeks to consider their options, Rafsanjani and Khatami still made the fateful decision to publicly oppose the Supreme Ruler and the power of the IRGC. Being experienced insiders, they would only opt for this course if they have high confidence in their odds. And they must also know that other dictum about palace revolts: "If you strike at the king, you must strike to kill." A compromise political settlement with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad would not likely be a stable outcome.

Will there now be a split within the IRGC? Or will the regular army enter the fight perhaps on the side of the rebels? It is hard to believe that Rafsanjani and Khatami would have committed themselves without the assurance of support from somewhere in the security services.

What do these developments mean for Western interests? There is now no chance (at least over the foreseeable future) of a negotiated settlement with Iran over its nuclear program. It would be pointless for the U.S. to have a negotiation with a regime that lacks legitimacy inside its own country and may be swept away at any moment. Nor should anyone expect that regime to make any concessions on the crown jewel of its (remaining) authority.

Thus the West is left hoping that a new revolution in Iran, if that is what happens, will somehow unravel Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The hope is that Iran's future reform government would opt for positive engagement with the West in order to boost Iran's economy and standard of living. Under this scenario, the new Iranian government would be —to scrap the nuclear and missile programs in order to open up that path or just to conserve money for other investments. Such a scenario is possible but also seems like a long-shot. Recall that Iran's then still-clandestine nuclear program made rapid advances during the supposedly moderate Khatami administration.

The West can tighten financial sanctions on the IRGC, hoping that internal squabbling over money weakens its power. Saudi Arabia can help by using its excess capacity to cap oil prices. The West can use diplomacy to preclude outside investment in Iran's energy sector. Beyond that, there seems little else the West and the Obama administration can do except watch.

By John J. Kruzel

American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, July 20, 2009 -- Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates today announced plans to add up to 22,000 soldiers to the U.S. Army's ranks.

The plus-up of active duty troops will take the Army from 547,000 to 569,000 forces in what Gates characterized as a temporary increase of the Army's "end strength" for three fiscal years.

"This is an important and necessary step to ensure that we continue to properly support the needs of our commanders in the field while providing relief for our current force and their families," the secretary told reporters during a Pentagon news conference.

Gates pointed to escalating violence in Afghanistan and an added U.S. presence there, political turmoil in Pakistan and elimination of the so-called "stop-loss" policy of involuntarily extending a soldier's length of service as reasons behind the decision.

"The cumulative effect of these factors is that the Army faces a period where its ability to continue to deploy combat units at acceptable 'fill rates' is at risk," he said. "Based on current deployment estimates, this is a temporary challenge which will peak in the coming year and abate over the course of the next three years."

Some 130,000 American forces are in Iraq and 58,000 are in Afghanistan, where an influx of deploying troops will bring the number to 68,000 by the end of this year, defense officials said.

"These additional forces will be used to ensure that our deploying units are properly manned, and not to create new combat formations," the defense secretary said, adding that the decision was made after consulting with the Army's top military and civilian leadership and with the backing of President Barack Obama.

Gates, who has described the defense budget as "zero sum," said the cost of the Army increase would be absorbed in funding already allocated in the budget for the next two fiscal years.

"We will take that money from someplace that isn't as high a priority as [adding] more soldiers and taking some additional steps to relieve the stress on the force," he said. "This is a very high priority."

Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appeared alongside Gates today, and also weighed in on the decision.

"I've grown increasingly concerned over the last year and a half about stress on the force and our ability to meet the demands out there," he said. "This temporary increase helps us address that concern. It will also help us get a better handle on [time at home between deployments] and boost the number of people we can deploy with the capabilities our commanders most need."

A new strategic study has spotlighted different approaches adopted by British and U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan to confront armed opponents and the tensions created over the differences, publishers for the Kingston University-led research said Monday.

"Hearts and Minds? British Counterinsurgency from Malaya to Iraq," a special issue of the Journal of Strategic Studies, said the different approaches favored by British and U.S. commanders in Iraq had become a "hot topic" because the military allies looked at ways of combating insurgents from divergent perspectives...

... the various interpretations of "hearts and minds" led to confusion about what degree of consent could be expected from the people and the implication of this for the use of force.

The study said the British military had been generally more "political" and less coercive in its approach to counterinsurgency...

The British approach to counterinsurgency has influenced the recent development of U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine, said the study, citing Petraeus and others. But there are still considerable differences in the British and U.S. approaches to counterinsurgency, and that has led to severe tensions in the relationship between these allies, according to the study.

The study concluded the "hearts and minds" description of the British approach to counterinsurgency might soften its public image, but it was not an effective guide to operations, because it could be interpreted in such divergent ways...

More at United Press International.

Some key points from the presentation:

1) "Because China now has global economic interests it also has expanding global political interests as well as expanding global security interests."

2) "This new context puts China's current leaders in terra incognita. There simply is no precedent in the history of the PRC for a China so enmeshed in the international system. Neither is there any precedent for China's emerging status as a global actor of consequence."

3) "Given China's economic equities in the developing world for energy, minerals, and other critical resources, there is no question as to why China continues to stay actively engaged with and court the nations of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East."

4) "What is new is that the PLA [Peoples Liberation Army] is finally beginning to come on line as an operational asset available to support Beijing's larger national objectives. Today, an incipient expeditionary PLA is taking shape. More than at any time in its history, the PLA is going places and doing things."

5) "A principal mission of PRC external propaganda is to allay fears and concerns that China's rise will pose a threat or that China's rise de facto makes it a revisionist power."

6) "On the issues of capacity and coordination, it is uncertain if 'the system' [Chinese government and its decision-making processes] can adjust quickly enough — or in the ways required — to keep up with new demands."

In sum, an important presentation. I recommend reading the whole thing.

On Monday, July 20, join NBC News for a groundbreaking television event when it sets forth on an international hunt for an accused terrorist with "The Wanted" at 10 PM ET.

"The Wanted" brings together an elite team with backgrounds in intelligence, unconventional warfare and investigative journalism. The show focuses on real operators, in search of real targets -- all in an effort to see individuals brought to justice.

"We hope this program sheds light on an overlooked story," said David Corvo, executive producer at NBC News. "It is surprising how many people with serious accusations against them are living openly and avoiding any sort of judicial process."

The faces of "The Wanted" include Roger Carstens who is recognized as one of the world's preeminent authorities on counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency; former Navy Seal Scott Tyler, an expert in urban reconnaissance and unconventional warfare; David Crane a decorated former US intelligence official and the first American to serve as Chief Prosecutor of an international war crimes tribunal since Justice Robert Jackson at Nuremberg; and Emmy award-winning investigative journalist Adam Ciralsky. Ciralsky also serves as co-executive producer of "The Wanted" with documentary filmmaker Charlie Ebersol.

"'The Wanted' is about seeking justice for the many victims of terrorism and atrocity around the world," said Crane. "It will start a national conversation, an important dialog about war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, and international terrorism, as well as the indifference and political cynicism that hampers international criminal law and the quest for justice. 'The Wanted' drives home the point that the rule of law is more powerful than the rule of the gun."

The July 20 episode follows Mullah Krekar, the founder and leader of Ansar Al Islam, an internationally designated terrorist organization that has been accused of killing hundreds of Americans and other Westerners. Krekar has been called "Bin Laden 2.0" as well as an "Islamic Nazi" and yet he has been living free in Norway -- this after the Norwegian Supreme Court declared him a threat to national security and ordered him deported. In "The Wanted," viewers will be taken inside intelligence briefings in the Middle East and surveillance operations in Krekar's community in Oslo.

On July 27, viewers will travel to Germany on the trail of Mamoun Darkazanli. Called "Bin Laden's financier," Spanish officials indicted Darkazanli in 2003 for providing logistical and financial support to Al Qaeda, specifically in connection with 9/11. Still he remains free in Germany. While the team surveils Darkazanli, negotiations for his deportation begin between Spain and Germany.

Executive Producers and Co-Creators Charlie Ebersol and Adam Ciralsky said, "We are excited about our groundbreaking new TV project 'The Wanted' on NBC, and know that viewers will be intrigued by the show." Ebersol and Ciralsky added, "It's like nothing you've ever seen on TV before. The pairing of rigorous investigative journalism with high-end production values has resulted in a fast-paced show which we hope will leave viewers wanting more."

Update:

An Ex-Green Beret Models His TV-Star Hat for His Comrades - Greg Jaffe, Washington Post.

Roger Carstens went on a mission over the weekend to present his new reality show, "The Wanted," to his fellow special-ops commandos outside MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa. Unlike all the other missions this soldier has undertaken since graduating from West Point in 1986, there was no way to train for this particular sort of military theater.

The earnest, 44-year-old counterterrorism expert had a case of the nerves. He downed two glasses of wine before the screening. Media ethicists and a human-rights group had already trashed the show, but if his fellow soldiers hated it too, then that would crush him. The NBC series (airing at 10 p.m. Monday) purports to track down terrorists and war criminals and deliver them to justice, no matter where in the world they are hiding. It goes after these suspected evildoers with a blend of military know-how, "The Bourne Identity" camera trickery, and gotcha journalism. Months before it aired, critics were making unflattering comparisons to "Dateline NBC's" controversial "To Catch a Predator" series.

Would real soldiers think Carstens's show - in which he is cast as the polished Green Beret alongside a Navy SEAL and an investigative journalist - is an artful, pulse-quickening action reel for their values? Or some perverse showcase for showboats?

More at The Washington Post.

'The Wanted': Set Aside Your Apprehensions - Tom Shales, Washington Post.

While most people are probably familiar with that phrase "the banality of evil," "evil" can have a pathetic buffoonery to it as well. The first of the bad guys to be tracked down on "The Wanted," NBC's new real-life espionage series that launches a different manhunt each week, is sometimes known as "Bin Laden 2.0" - the title a twisted testimonial to his abilities as a murderer.

His name, Mullah Krekar - founder of an international terrorist organization called Ansar al-Islam - sounds very much, when spoken, like "Moolah Cracker," and it is noted that his ricky-ticky whiskers are iconic to an organization whose claims to infamy include the boast that it "leads the world in beheadings." Time marches on - yet simultaneously races backward as well.

Very little of "The Wanted" is dramatized or re-enacted, because in the new era of guerrilla television, the bad guys and good guys play themselves.

More at The Washington Post.

July 28, 2009

National Defense University

Washington, D.C.

The Center for Complex Operations Second Annual Conference will introduce the CCO's latest initiatives, including lessons learned collection efforts, a complex operations journal, and fourteen new case studies written for teaching and training.

Date and Time: July 28, 2009 at 2:00PM. The conference will be followed by a cocktail reception.

Agenda

1:30 PM Registration

2:00 PM Opening Remarks

Dr. Hans Binnendijk

Director, Center for Technology and National Security Policy

Ambassador John E. Herbst

Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization, Department of State

Dr. James Schear

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense

2:45 Keynote Address

Lieutenant General David W. Barno, U.S. Army (Retired)

Director, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies

3:15 Break

3:30 Lessons Learned from the Three Ds

Moderator: Michael Miklaucic, CCO (USAID)

Panelist 1: Ambassador James Dobbins, RAND

Panelist 2: Colonel (P) H.R. McMaster, TRADOC, Army Capabilities Integration Center

Panelist 3: Dr. David Kilcullen, Crumpton Group

4:45 CCO Research Initiatives: Complex Operations Case Studies Series

Moderator: Bernard Carreau, CCO

Panelist 1: Colonel Peter Curry, Marine Corps War College (Invited)

Panelist 2: Dr. Volker Franke, McDaniel College (Invited)

5:30 Closing Session

Ambassador Robin Raphel, Senior Vice President, Cassidy and Associates (Invited)

6:00 Reception

Registration

Please RSVP to Jacqueline Carpenter at CarpenterJ5@ndu.edu or (202) 685-6348.

Location

Lincoln Hall Auditorium, National Defense University, Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, D.C.

For additional Information: Check the CCO Portal for event updates: ccoportal.org.

During Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's visit to Washington next week, the Obama administration will likely seek to reinvigorate that country's flagging reconciliation process as part of ongoing efforts to establish a stable political order in Iraq. Progress, however, continues to be hindered by ongoing violence, deep-seated suspicions, and partisan politics, raising questions about the ultimate prospects for national reconciliation...

Much more at The Washington Institute.