| Small Wars Journal

This Vortex Working Paper is based on a Presentation at the Seminar on Netwars and Peacenets, Institute of Global Studies, Maison des Sciences de l’Homme, Paris, 27-28, June 2011.

Synopsis: Transnational organized crime is a pressing global security issue. Mexico is currently embroiled in a protracted drug war. Mexican drug cartels and allied gangs (actually poly-crime organizations) are currently challenging states and sub-state polities (in Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and beyond) to capitalize on lucrative illicit global economic markets. As a consequence of the exploitation of these global economic flows, the cartels are waging war on each other and state institutions to gain control of the illicit economy. Essentially, they are waging a ‘criminal insurgency’ against the current configuration of states. As such, they are becoming political, as well as economic actors.

This presentation examines the dynamics of this controversial proposition. The control of territorial space—ranging from ‘failed communities’ to ‘failed regions’—will be examined. The presentation will examine the exploitation of weak governance and areas (known as ‘lawless zones,’ ‘ungoverned spaces,’ ‘other governed spaces,’ or ‘zones of impunity’) where state challengers have created parallel or dual sovereignty, or ‘criminal enclaves’ in a neo-feudal political arrangement. The use of instrumental violence, corruption, information operations (including attacks on journalists), street taxation, and provision of social goods in a utilitarian fashion will be discussed. Finally, the dynamics of the transition of cartels and gangs into ‘accidental guerrillas’ and ‘social bandits’ will be explored through the lens of ‘third generation gang’ theory and ‘power-counter power’ relationships. This presentation will serve as a starting point for assessing the threat to security from transnational organized crime through lessons from the Mexican cartels.

(Source: John P. Sullivan, "From Drug Wars to Criminal Insurgency: Mexican Cartels, Criminal Enclaves and Criminal Insurgency in Mexico and Central America, and their Implications for Global Security," Vortex Working Paper No. 6, Bogotá: Scientific Vortex Foundation, March 2012.)

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Influencing Iran: A Fourth Way?

Mahmud slammed the door as he entered his modest house in Tehran. His wife was angry too. For 10 days their lives had been disturbed by various intermittent defects, failures and disruptions. Today, it had taken Mahmud three hours to drive four miles across the city as all traffic lights had gradually remained red, causing gridlock and slow speed collisions at most key junctions. At work, the computers his design company relied upon had repeatedly frozen and basic utilities were frequently interrupted, but not to a pattern that could be adapted to, and only for periods that caused inconvenience, not an emergency.

People would have complained to the government but its web portal was off-line and the modern telephone systems in government departments (but strangely not the Ministry of Health) were proving unreliable. Even the state run media apparatus seemed to be malfunctioning. Weight of digital traffic had closed down a number of state computer systems, whilst others appeared to be suffering from a wave of malicious software programmes. The IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) was broadcasting some government messages but often to only local audiences as national transmissions suffered repeated interruptions. Confused, frustrated and unable to command the adherence they were used to, some clerics on the overseeing Assembly of Experts began to worry the Executive no longer controlled the population. With a legislative election due in March, the apparent loss of centrally held electoral databases was a particular concern.

The internet in Iran appeared to have adopted a mind of its own. Spurious e-mails, texts and Tweets promoting various rumours spread seemingly unhindered, fuelling popular suspicion and distrust. Social messaging services went into overdrive multiplying messages a thousand times, swamping servers and causing many people to block all incoming traffic to their personal accounts. An added annoyance was that many bogus messages were in minority Kurdish, Arabic and Turkic languages. Personal and commercial communication had become difficult. Most of Iran’s 26 million landline telephones were working but each household in Tehran was receiving about 50 random calls a day from unknown sources and often during the night, adding to the general disruption and irritation with life. The 50 million mobile phone users in Iran suffered fewer random calls, but then their service was routinely only available for 12 hours a day.

Elsewhere, Iran’s statist economy was struggling. Deliveries of goods were disrupted by errors in dispatch, invoicing and delivery addresses. Bills went unpaid, government employees found that their electronic personnel records had been deleted or amended; those on the state payroll had not received their monthly pay and intermittent failures of cash machines and accounting systems had generated queues at many banks as people withdrew their savings. Confidence in financial institutions was collapsing and there were early signs that people were panic buying food, petrol, and other commodities. Some state-owned oil, gas and coal plants had stopped production until problems with computer-based control and safety systems were resolved, and the slow degradation of civilian air traffic control systems had seen all international airlines cease flights into Iranian airspace.

The state police, regular military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces had adopted a high level of readiness in response to the deteriorating situation but been hampered by repeated spurious or contradictory orders which could not be authenticated, and the regular appearance of Basij Forces militia members who had received bogus mobilisation notices. The military had also found that many of its computer based Command & Control systems were not functioning correctly, and the suspicion fuelled by erroneous messages on the internet and government communications systems was cultivating a growing friction amongst security personnel who were prone to paranoia. Whilst convinced it was under cyber-attack by foreign enemies, intelligence, surveillance and patrolling indicated there was no unusual foreign military activity in the Gulf region - the burgeoning threat to the Tehran regime was not that of an external attack but of a disintegration of government control as instability engulfed Iranian society.

Mahmud vented his frustration with an uncharacteristic tirade. It wasn’t aimed at his wife but they argued anyway, until the telephone rang…

A fictitious scenario of course, but we appear to be rushing headlong toward a military ‘solution’ to the problem of Iran’s nuclear ambition it raises a serious point. Historically, states pressurise errant regimes through diplomatic, economic or military means. Sometimes a dual-track approach of ‘carrot’ (diplomatic persuasion) and ‘stick’ (economic or military coercion) is used, but usually crises follow a sequence of early diplomacy, economic sanctions, ‘last chance’ diplomacy, and finally military force. Although this sequence may take many months, where time is short recourse to military action may be necessary before economic pressure has taken effect. Thus we find ourselves ramping up economic sanctions against Iran with one eye on the clock and the other on potential military options, for when diplomacy fails nations are only two steps from war, and dangerously so when insufficient time is available for economic measures to produce a desired outcome.

The present discourse on how to change Iran’s nuclear ambition is dominated by this historic triumvirate of diplomacy, economic sanctions and military force, but this obsolescent model neglects the coercive opportunities presented by today’s technology. As a society becomes increasingly reliant on computers, software and information systems to function correctly, new vulnerabilities are created that offer possibilities to disrupt everyday life in numerous ways and to varying degrees. This potential is no longer science fiction and crucially it provides another means of pressuring a regime without resort to military action. In the second decade of the 21^st Century it is time a fourth option - national disturbance - is placed on the table with other coercive options.

Using measures to create national disturbance raises the obvious question are they an act of war? As ‘cyber-attack’ is already in the military lexicon and the targeting of enemy computer-based systems is a growing element of modern warfare, at first glance it seems that they would be. Yet they might cause little concrete or lasting damage to a national infrastructure and no more casualties or physical suffering among a population than effective economic sanctions would. As such, they fall within the existing debate of whether any coercive action against a state constitutes warfare and should not be considered differently. Rather, as they share common traits with both economic sanctions and military force, national disturbance measures could provide a blend of effects from within existing civil and military options. Perhaps most importantly, they might replace the current abrupt transition from economic pressure to martial force with a more progressive application of coercion that makes recourse to military violence less likely.

A number of factors would shape the effectiveness of national disturbance measures, including the level of dependence on computers and information systems within the target society, the degree of resilience (e.g. redundancy) in those systems, and the type, number and duration of measures employed. It would be wrong to view them as a silver bullet, and like all coercive actions they could have unintended effects, but if used successfully against key elements of the Tehran regime they might exert sufficient leverage to defer the need for military force. Why? Because they exploit a fundamental weakness in totalitarian governments - fear of losing control.

A centralised state like Iran must control its population, so measures which disrupt that power undermine regime authority, pose a troubling existential threat, and attract commensurate attention and concern. By generating a national disturbance with the worrying combination of state dysfunction, public unrest and apparent regime impotence it is possible to harness an oppressive regime’s inherent vulnerabilities: the imperative to demonstrate control, and the need for a compliant population; and to do so without firing a shot.

Tehran may fear an externally imposed regime change - that is probably the key driver in the Ayatollahs’ determination to obtain a nuclear weapon - but Iran’s leaders must recognise that an international military invasion to depose the government is not only politically implausible but also practically impossible. Instead, it is the fear of rebellion that Western governments should exploit to seize Tehran’s attention. In Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and crucially Iran’s ally, Syria, the power of popular revolt is clear, so if the international community wishes to influence Tehran’s nuclear ambition then it should exploit what Iran fears most and it can do so through cultivating national disturbance.

As a crisis with Iran draws ever closer the stakes involved demand that military force is not used too soon. In this decade, states have the potential to add a fourth option to the traditional policy tools of diplomacy, economic sanctions and military action - national disturbance. It is time that alternative was fully explored, developed and utilised. For if it has utility then in a scenario with no good choices it just might prevent a war.

5 March SWJ Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

US-Afghanistan Talks Falter Despite Leeway on Detention Facilities - NYT

A Number of Troops Return to Battle after Suffering Severe Wounds - AP

Syria

Syrian Forces Pound Rebel-held Town as Some Aid Gets Through - VOA

Red Cross Allowed into City, but Barred from Worst-Hit Area - WP

Syria Army Shelling Homs and Nearby Villages, Opposition Says - LAT

Heavy Clashes Erupt in South Syria Near Jordan Border - Reuters

Lebanon Expects Influx of Syrian Refugees - NYT

Israel Offers Humanitarian Aid to Syria - WT

Iran

Ahmadinejad's Supporters Defeated in Parliamentary Election - VOA

Elections Favor Ayatollah’s Allies, Dealing Blow to President - NYT

Obama: Diplomacy Top Option on Iran - VOA

‘Loose Talk of War’ Only Helps Iran, President Says - NYT

Obama Rejects 'Bluster' over Iran but Assures Israel's Supporters - LAT

Obama Warns of Force Against Iran - BBC

Obama Assures Israel US Force an Option on Iran - AP

Peres: US, Israel Agree on Stopping Iranian Nukes - WT

Israeli Leaders Praise Obama's AIPAC Speech - AP

Obama, Netanyahu Face Struggle Over Iran 'Red Lines' - Reuters

West Pushes Hard on Iran at Nuclear Meeting - AP

House Bill Seeks Report on Iran in Latin America - WT

Israel's Brinkmanship, America's Peril - LAT opinion

Would Military Strike on Iran Be Legal? - RCP opinion

Iraq

Al Qaeda in Iraq Mounts Comeback - WT

20 Police Killed in Western Iraq - NYT

Wave of Iraq Attacks Kills Police - BBC

Officials: 25 Police Killed in Western Iraq - AP

Iraq, Saudi Arabia Show Relations Thaw - WP

Middle East / North Africa

Israel Trims Detention of Palestinian Hunger-Striker - Reuters

Southern Yemen Fighting Kills 35 Soldiers, 20 al-Qaida Militants - VOA

Dozens of Yemeni Soldiers Reported Dead in Militant Attack - NYT

Saudi Flexes Gulf Grip With Bahrain 'Union' Plans - AP

Libyan Militia Says UK Journalists are 'Spies' - BBC

Libya: Fury over Attack on British War Graves in Benghazi - BBC

United States

Attorney General to Explain Rationale for Targeting US Citizens Abroad - WP

US to Offer Legal Backing for 'Targeted Killing' - Reuters

Gitmo War Crimes Court Surprises Some Observers - AP

Guilty Verdicts for Guantanamo Prisoners - AP

Obama’s Allies, Foes Speculate on a Big Second-term Agenda - WP

Families Oppose 9/11 Remains at Memorial Museum - AP

National Guard Troops Respond to Midwestern, Southern Tornadoes - AFPS

A Fair Deal for a Terrorist - WP editorial

Defense is Under the Gun - WP opinion

Can US Still Promote Democracy Abroad? - FP opinion

Africa

Nigeria Military Kills 3 Suspected Sect Members - AP

At Least 200 Reported Dead in Republic of Congo Blasts - VOA

'Bad Wiring' Caused Congo Blasts - BBC

IOM: Impossible to Meet Deadline for Repatriating S. Sudanese - VOA

Americas

House Bill Seeks Report on Iran in Latin America - WT

Venezuela's Chavez says Tumor was Malignant - BBC

Chavez Faces More Cancer Treatment Before Venezuela Vote - Reuters

Peru Captures 'Shining Path Boss' - BBC

Haiti's Martelly Wants Camps of Ex-Soldiers Cleared - Reuters

Falklands are British, Not Argentine - WT opinion

Asia Pacific

China's Premier Warns of Slower Growth - WP

In China’s Annual Assessment, Wen Is Optimistic - NYT

China Ups Domestic Spending as Economy Slows - AP

China Boosts 2012 Military Spending - VOA

China Announces Double-Digit Hike in Defense Budget - LAT

China to Boost Military Spending - WP

China Boosts Military Spending More Than 11 Percent - NYT

China Begins Parliament Session - BBC

China: Tibetan Mother of 4 Sets Herself on Fire in Protest - VOA

China: Tibet Woman Sets Herself on Fire - BBC

Korean Nuclear Envoys Could Meet During US Forum - AP

Market Blast Kills 1, Wounds 7 in Thailand's South - AP

Indonesia Sentences Militant to 18 Years in Prison - AP

Europe

Putin Declares Victory in Russian Presidential Election - VOA

Russia: Putin Celebrates Election Victory - BBC

Russia: Putin Wins, but Opposition Keeps Pressing - NYT

Russia: Putin Wins Election Amid Fraud Complaints - WP

Putin Declares Presidential Victory in Russia - LAT

Russia: Putin Faces Energized Opposition - WP

Russian Turnout Includes Thousands of Eager Election Observers - NYT

Foreign Observers: Serious Problems in Russia Vote - AP

Monitors: Russian Vote Skewed in Putin's Favor - Reuters

Russia: Medvedev Orders Review of Tycoon’s Conviction - NYT

Iceland Ex-Premier Trial Begins - BBC

Small Bomb Blast Near Turkish PM Building - Reuters

Russia: The End of Putinism - WP opinion

Putin's Pyrrhic Victory - LAT opinion

Cleaning Up in Moscow - FP opinion

Read more about 5 March SWJ Roundup

The Responsibilities of Civilian Policy Advocates

My views on the responsibility to protect concept and its advocates cavalier promotion of their cavalierly acronymed (R2P) construct previously boiled over into a debate on civil-military relations. When I rhetorically asked on Twitter if they were ready to head down to the recruiting station to back up their convictions, I was accused of stepping afoul of the dictates of civilian control of the military. I had no such intentions, as I subsequently stated. Instead, I was asserting that R2Pers' moral certitudes were not backed up by a sufficient and sober counting of the costs. Thinking of the "sacrifice" in the sterile terms that have accompanied a decade's worth of airport thank-yous and sporting events kickoffs is not the same as the heart-rending, gut-wrenching feeling of losing someone close to you; the flesh-tearing, life-changing pain of being maimed or killed by war; or the numbing, mind-altering experience of searching for parts of bodies, pulling dead children from rubble, and the like. These are not a prerequisite for policy prescription, however the very terrible realities of war should not be glossed over in an attempt to sell lethal policy. The advocates will state that these things are on-going in Syria, that they have contemplated them, and that we have a responsibility to stop it. They will also state that the military has signed up for such things and that it must stand ready to make such sacrifices.

They also believe, against the weight of recent experience and longer historical example, that this will somehow be different. That nifty technology will somehow make it easier, cleaner. That aseptic corridors will be acceded to by a dictator determined not to find his end in a roadside ditch under the blows of his once-subjects, a gunshot, and the slow bleed, in great pain, during which he knows he is dying. This image is undoubtedly seared into Assad's mind and that of his coterie. But, surely, he will play fair with us.

All the more reason to take him out, they will say. He is craven and cannot be allowed to continue this crime of epic proportions. They do not see that their desire for a limited and humane intervention faces the vote of a determined enemy that will want to draw us into the quagmire, will want our precision-guided munitions to fall into the ambiguous targets of war, where cameras capture the wreckage of children, bright clothes smeared with blood and dusted with the gray remnants of a home collapsed upon them. A father with tears in his eyes stands, hands pointing to the body, palms outward in helplessness. Why, he asks, why do the Americans keep doing this? Suicide bombers, IEDs, or missiles will cross lines on maps in op-eds and journal articles and we will call them cowards. Meanwhile, drones or manned aircraft will loiter tens of thousands of feet above in impunity after the destruction of Syria's integrated air defense system with a bombing campaign that shocks all of the interventionists in its ferocity and breadth. As the map lines blur, the bombs will fall silently, following the invisible beam of a laser. They will fall into the ambiguity on the other side of the line and our moral certitude will shake, shudder, and eventually crumble as a civil war spreads in the murk. We will look at the lines, now covered in dust, and bicker over what to do and how to do it.

Actors in Syria and in the region will tell us that they never wanted us there in the first place. People scarred by war, their earliest memories marked by the smell of seared hair and flesh, burning plastic and rubber, the wails of mothers and sisters, a father, a grandfather, a brother transformed forever into a wrecked corpse, will march to the charge of another invasion, another occupation. These will be the ones that survived by the lessons learned in a decade of war. We will stand, the lines now vanished, trampled by the movement of patrols into the ambiguity, not wanting to press beyond our conception of a limited intervention, but unable to leave. The R2Pers will not be in the midst of this. They will be writing from their study, incredulous that military and civilian officials could have botched such a simple mission once again. Wondering why we hadn't learned all the lessons of the better wars we could throw.

Surely, it cannot be as bad as all that, you might say. True. It may not be as bad as I say, but it will surely be more messy than the glib op-ed that Anne-Marie Slaughter threw together for the New York Times last week. CNN reports that the military is looking at using as many as 75,000 troops just to secure potential Syrian chemical weapons sites. The realities of a Syrian intervention are far messy than Dr. Slaughter is willing to countenance in her infantile fantasy masquerading as policy prescription. Therein lies the rub. Dr. Slaughter is a respected policy elite and people take her ideas seriously. Therefore, she has a responsibility to be honest and open in her advocacy with regard to the risks and complexities of her proposal. Dr. Slaughter tweeted a few weeks ago that those outside of government could partake in one-sided advocacy, leaving policy-makers in government to sort out the details. This is the height of irresponsibility. Essentially, she is saying that people like her are free to sell the American people on a policy in NYT op-eds without fully disclosing the costs and complexities, leaving the unhappy recipients in government with the task of dealing with the unstated costs and risks, while public debate shaped by dishonest people like her has closed off some of their policy options.

Slaughter states that simply arming the opposition would lead to destabilizing civil war. However, arming the Free Syrian Army to create "no-kill zones," that is enabling the FSA to control swathes of territory just within the sovereign borders of Syria would somehow bring an end to the butchery. Not mentioned is how the FSA would take or hold this territory against the likely violent disagreement of the regime. We are talking about battle here. Not potshots against regime forces, but the taking and holding of territory. This is not just glossed over in the Slaughter plan, but completely ignored. She speaks blithely of the use of special forces to enable the FSA, and how they could enable the FSA to cordon population centers and rid them of snipers. What you don't see here is the bloody battle and likely airstrikes needed to push the bulk of the regime forces away from these population centers to be cordoned. Nor does it discuss the brutal and psychologically exhausting game of counter-sniper operations.

Slaughter next discusses locating tank and artillery units. What she does not discuss is what is to be done once they are located. Will they be showered with leaflets? Or will she expect us to neutralize them? That is a clean term. It involves using aircraft, which means destroying an extremely capable integrated air defense system (IADS). While there has been commentary to the contrary, this is much different than slipping through once or twice on raids as the Israelis have done. Rest assured, any use of air in Syria will require an elaborate take-down of the IADS that will shock the bleeding hearts in our midst. Even with the use of new technology to electronically disable the system temporarily, any attacker will use bombs to take them out permanently. Also, no matter how precise the weapons, whether used against IADS, tanks, or artillery, the amount of explosive and shards of metal required to destroy such targets creates a deadly bloom that extends well beyond their intended target. When missiles, artillery pieces, or tanks are located in and amongst civilian structures, collateral damage (as described above far more messily) will occur.

Slaughter asserts that all of this will be done only defensively and only against those that "dare" to attack the haughtily termed no kill zones. Defensively is not defined here. Does defense include taking out the IADS? Does defense include taking out artillery in range of the no-kill zones? Does defense include taking territory inside Syria to establish no-kill zones? Does defense include counterattacking against Syrian forces that mass in preparation to push these "foreign fighters" (as they will be termed) out of their territory? Does defense include pushing farther into Syrian territory when these no-kill zones fail to stop the killing beyond their neat lines?

Slaughter then goes completely off the rails of credibility when she states that Turkey and the Arab League should help the opposition more actively through the use of remotely piloted helicopters, both for logistical missions and to "attack" Syrian air defenses and mortars (she leaves out artillery here, not sure why) that can range the no-kill zones. First, we see here that even Slaughter cannot sort out her charade of a purely defensive operation. How is an attack purely defensive? Second, if Slaughter was informed to an extent just one step above dangerous ignorance of military affairs, she would realize that her call for the Turks and Arab League to use remotely piloted helicopters for logistical and attack missions is roughly equivalent to a call to use sharks with lasers on their heads to do the same. She cites American use of remotely piloted helicopters in Afghanistan. True. The U.S. has used two prototype remotely piloted helicopters to perform logistical missions in Afghanistan. These are prototypes, however. They have not been used in an attack role. Using drone helicopters in an attack role against sophisticated air defenses or artillery positions is so far off even for America right now that she may as well have advocated using teleporters and phaser guns. To imagine that the Arab League and Turkey can obtain and use such technology operationally in any meaningful numbers is so ludicrous as to be a lie. I don't expect Slaughter to be a military expert, but stepping back from the technological aspects I do expect her to understand that concerted action by the Arab League, even in the most circumscribed situation, is not immediately forthcoming. Advanced military operations using breakthrough technology is completely out of the realm of credible policy prescription.

Thus, the last few paragraphs of Slaughter's vapid essay indicate that it is completely out of touch with reality. She states that it is up to the Arab League and Turkey to adopt a plan of action. That simply is not going to happen in any form similar to what she advocates. The only way that such a plan will be implemented is if the U.S. twists arms and stands ready to do all the heavy lifting. In reality, then, Slaughter's neat plan will degenerate into the U.S. sticking its nose into yet another quagmire.

I do not believe that only those with military experience are qualified to advocate military intervention. Nor do I object to the primacy of civilian control over the military. I do object to policy advocation so simplistic and incorrect as to be deliberately misleading. War and military force is a brutal and imprecise instrument. It is ugly, destructive, wasteful, and stupid. It makes no clean cuts, creates no neat solutions. Sometimes it is the only option and sometimes the terrible horrors of war are required to prevent catastrophe. We must be brutally honest and circumspect, however, in our advocacy of policy. If the benefits truly outweigh the costs, let us discuss and air the best estimates and make an informed decision. Advocacy like that of Anne-Marie Slaughter, however, is so disingenuous and so powerful with the pulpit that she commands as to be its own sort of evil. It is an evil that I hope she corrects.

Mexico's Challenges: Lessons in the War Against Organized Crime

Eduardo Guerrero, a consultant on security affairs at Lantia Consultores, addresses lessons in the war against organized crime in ReVista: Harvard Review of Latin America.

… Given the disappointing performance of the Mexican government’s security strategy, I started collecting data and analyzing the origins and dynamics of the current crime and violence epidemics. Calderón’s strategy has certainly had some positive features, and some adjustments have already been implemented. However, the security situation in Mexico calls for major corrections in government strategy that the next president—to be elected in July 2012—will have to address…

Read more about Mexico's Challenges: Lessons in the War Against Organized Crime

4 March SWJ Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

CIA-led Force May Speed Afghan Exit - AP

Panetta: Taliban’s Murder Tactics Show Their Weakness - AFPS

US Newspaper Says Quran Burning Followed a Chain of Mishaps - VOA

Conflicting Accounts Over Afghan Quran Burnings - AP

Afghan Army Chief Warns Against Another NATO Blunder - Reuters

How to Rebuild Trust in Afghanistan - WP opinion

Pakistan

Pakistan Proposes Curbs on Media - WP

Syria

Syrian Forces Shell Homs, Block Aid to Rebel Stronghold - VOA

Government Blocks Aid Convoy, Tightening Hold on Devastated Area - NYT

Red Cross Attempts Entry to Baba Amr for Third Time - BBC

Syria blocks Red Cross aid to Baba Amr - WP

Fresh Assault on Homs as Red Cross Seeks Access - AP

Syrian Rebels in Idlib Bide their Time - LAT

Syria Splits Along Sectarian Lines, Shaking Mideast - McClatchy

US Sees Iran’s Hand in Syrian Crackdown - WP

Turkey Compares Syrian Conflict to 1990s Balkans - AP

Turkey Says Assad's Forces Committing War Crimes - Reuters

China Offers Plan on Syria but Nixes Intervention - AP

Latest in Mysterious Car Bombings in Kills Three - LAT

Satellite Images Appear to Show Shelling of Homs - WP

Bearing Witness in Syria: A War Reporter’s Last Days - NYT

Iran

Obama, Netanyahu to Hold Critical Talks on Iran Options - VOA

US Backers of Israel Pressure Obama Over Policy on Iran - NYT

Iran Trumps Palestinians as Top US-Israel Issue - AP

Ahmadinejad Rivals Lead in Parliamentary Vote - VOA

Ahmadinejad Critics Lead after Vote - WP

Iran: Poll Turnout 'Slap' to West - BBC

Iranian Opposition Group Eyes Jordan Relocation - AP

Should Israel Strike Iran - WP opinion

Decoding Obama's Message on Iran - WP opinion

Egypt

Egypt Prepares to Draft Constitution - WP

Egypt Lawmakers Clash Over Writing Constitution - AP

US Says Ties With Egypt Still Strong After NGO Row - Reuters

Egypt Appoints New Judges for Nonprofit Trial - AP

Egypt Parliament Sees 'Interference' in Activists' Release - Reuters

Egypt’s Famed al-Azhar Mosque at a Crossroads - WP

Middle East / North Africa

Israeli Minister Says World Cannot Protect Israel - AP

Palestinians to Give Israelis Deadline on Talks - AP

Suicide Bombers Hit Yemen Army Camp, Kill Soldier - AP

Four Dead in South Yemen Blasts, Al Qaeda Blamed - Reuters

Freed of Gadhafi, Libya's Instability Only Deepens - AP

Muslim Brotherhood Forms Political Party in Libya - AP

Suicide Bomber Attacks Algerian Security Base - Reuters

Is Israel a Formal US Ally? - CSM editorial

The ‘One State’ Solution - WP opinion

Why Is America Obsessed With Israel? - FP opinion

United States

US Busts Multi-Million Dollar Counterfeiting Ring Linked to China - VOA

President Obama Says US Must Refine Energy Goals - VOA

Los Alamos Braces for Layoffs at Lab - NYT

Surveillance, Security and Civil Liberties - NYT editorial

Africa

Sudan’s Bashir Lashes Out at ICC - VOA

Sudan's Bashir Slams ICC Warrant for Defense Minister - Reuters

Rebel, Army Clashes Kill Nine in Somalia's Puntland - Reuters

Report: 10 Dead in Ethnic Clashes in Burkina Faso - AP

Americas

VP Biden Goes to Latin American Amid Drug Debate - AP

Drug Allegations May Hamper Former Mexico Ruling Party's Return - LAT

Three Killed by Bomb in Colombia - BBC

In Colombia, Freedom Nears After 14-Year Captivity - AP

Venezuela Releases Photos of Chavez with Castro - VOA

Brother of Peru's President In in Prison Transfer - AP

Asia Pacific

China to Up Defense Spending by 11.2 Pct in 2012 - AP

China Protest Village Elects Head - BBC

China Protest Leaders Elected to Lead Village - LAT

Protest’s Success May Not Change China - NYT

North Korea's Kim Orders High Alert During DMZ Visit - S&S

North Korea: Military Exercises Show US is ‘Double Faced - VOA

Japanese PM Says Government Shares Blame for Nuclear Disaster - NYT

Burma Democracy Leader Falls Ill During Campaign Rally - NYT

As Burma Thaws, Decades-Old Civil War Festers On - AP

A North Korean Corleone - NYT opinion

Europe

With Putin Ahead in Surveys, Voting Starts in Russia’s Presidential Election - VOA

Russian Presidential Vote Begins - BBC

Putin Heads Toward Russia’s Presidency - WP

Fear of Return to ’90s Hardship Fuels Support for Putin - NYT

Russia Youth Have Known Nothing but Putin, Won't Vote for Him - LAT

Russian Election: Putin Seeks Return to Kremlin - AP

Putin Set to Reclaim the Kremlin in Russian Vote - Reuters

French-German Border Shapes More Than Territory - NYT

South Asia

More Indians see Democracy as Burden - WP

Surveys Point to Election Blow for India's Gandhis - Reuters

Read more about 4 March SWJ Roundup

Tyler Hicks on Anthony Shadid's Last Mission

Tyler Hicks' missive on Anthony Shadid's last mission has drawn attention and many tweets for the one sentence R2Pers will use to make their case: "The Free Syrian Army is much more organized than the rebel fighters in Libya." What this misses is the fact that the forces of the Syrian regime are far more intact than they were in Libya. Qaddafis officials and his military quickly defected in large numbers. The same has not been the case in Syria. There is much more to read the article for, however.

The pace down was faster and easier than coming up a week earlier, and this time our bags were carried by horses instead of on our backs. But then I could hear that Anthony’s breathing became strained, and within a mile he was asking to rest. He will get through this as he did on the much more strenuous hike in, I thought, and with one of my arms around his waist, and the other holding his forearm, we continued to walk.

Soon after, Anthony stopped and leaned against a large boulder, and unlike the first time, when he had merely labored for breath, now he collapsed onto the ground. I called out his name, but he was already unconscious and his breathing had stopped completely. I performed CPR for half an hour while begging the smugglers to find a doctor. I hoped for a miracle. ... Finally, a small covered truck drove quietly within sight of us and we carried Anthony, whose death I could still not come to terms with, into the back, where I climbed in with him.

Read more about Tyler Hicks on Anthony Shadid's Last Mission

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