Small Wars Journal

9/25/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Fri, 09/25/2020 - 10:16am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1.  N.K. leader apologizes to S. Koreans for 'unsavory' shooting case: Cheong Wa Dae

2. The unrepentant brutality of the Kim regime

3. North Korea commits act of brutality

4. Gov't and military are in dereliction of duty

5. What was S. Korea doing for 34 hours after its civilian was killed by N. Korea?

6. 3 fall Army brigade deployments to Afghanistan, South Korea and Europe announced

7. Fertilizer factory explosion claims eight deaths in S. Pyongan Province

8. N. Korea and China recently signed agreement aimed at easing border tensions

9. Repatriated North Korean escapee asks police to send her back to prison

10. North Korea arrests two for using fake money to buy food

11. Moon vows firm response to threats to S. Koreans' lives, safety

12. New defense minister holds first meeting with USFK commander

13. N.K.'s apology shows hotline between Seoul, Pyongyang spy agencies possibly in operation

14. Pyongyang General Hospital: a bright white beacon after the rains

15. Moon's adviser suggests N.K. leader hold summit with Moon and explain about killing

16. For North Korea, UN membership is a key link to larger world

17. What would Trump do with North Korea if he wins a second term?

18. North Korea's nuclear fishing lesson

 

1. N.K. leader apologizes to S. Koreans for 'unsavory' shooting case: Cheong Wa Dae

Yonhap News Agency · by lcd@yna.co.kr · September 25, 2020

What military has their soldiers carry blank rounds while on active duty guarding their nation? Firing two blanks and then 10 live rounds? 

Notice the admonition in this apology - the South should be helping with the suffering from the coronavirus.

We should not be duped by this "apology." Kim is conducting his usual political warfare with Juche characteristics. Yes, it is unusual to receive such a message so quickly. It may be because Kim is facing so many internal problems and he is preparing for future blackmail diplomacy to coerce aid from the South after blaming it for any COVID outbreak in the North (recall the re-defection of the likely North Korean operative who returned to Kaesong who the North said had tested positive for COVID?). The North is likely going to make demands of the South in the near future so this is a necessary step to prepare for that.

So, they only burned the material but never recovered the body? Note the letter counters what the North calls the regrettable that the South Korean military would say they burned the body. (I would bet the signal intercepts confirm the burning).

This is in no way a sincere apology. Again, this is political warfare. And this action by North Korean soldiers is an indication of the nature of the Kim family regime.

I fear this unusual apology will be misinterpreted as Kim is changing his ways and will actually be used as justification for advancing engagement with the North because Kim has apologized and express sincere regret. The only thing Kim regrets is that he has not yet extorted sufficient concessions from the South.  But he will spin (and is spinning) this incident in a way to set up getting such concessions.

 

2. The unrepentant brutality of the Kim regime

HRNK · by Greg Scarlatoiu · September 24, 2020

Statement from our Executive Director of the Committee on Human Rights in North Korea on North Korea's brutality. We should not forget that the Kim family regime is the worst human rights abuser in the modern era. And we should not believe that the North's rapid "apology" indicates any sincere repentance.

 

3. North Korea commits act of brutality

Dong-A Ilbo · by Editorial Board · September 25, 2020

The Dong-A Ilbo editorial board weighs in.

 

4. Gov't and military are in dereliction of duty

Chosun Ilbo · by Editorial Board · September 25, 2020

Questions on this tragic event's timeline. I think that, despite the regime's apology and, frankly, bulls**t explanation (e.g., firing blank rounds??), I am pretty confident there are intelligence intercepts that capture the NKPA describing what happened in real time. But there are some difficult and important questions for the South Korean military and government.

 

5. What was S. Korea doing for 34 hours after its civilian was killed by N. Korea?

Dong-A Ilbo · by Kyu-Jin Shin · September 25, 2020

A key question. Obviously, this undermines confidence in the military and the government. It also reinforces the perception the South wants engagement to support peace at all costs. The costs of peace can be catastrophic in blood and treasure if that peace is not built on a foundation of resolute strength and the commitment to national security above political agendas.

 

6. 3 fall Army brigade deployments to Afghanistan, South Korea and Europe announced

Army Times · by Kyle Rempfer · September 24, 2020

I am waiting for the shoe to drop on Korea. Cancelling the brigade rotation to Korea and bringing home the current rotational brigade with no replacement would be an October surprise to say that we are reducing forces because Korea will not pay for the US presence. It would not technically violate the NDAA, which says no funds will be appropriated for withdrawal of forces unless the SECEDEF certifies such withdrawal will not harm the national security of the US and its allies. Fortunately, I have not heard any discussion of this idea but, for those with a political agenda rather than a national security agenda, I could see this idea as one they would consider.

 

7. Fertilizer factory explosion claims eight deaths in S. Pyongan Province

Daily NK · by Jong So Yong · September 25, 2020

It is dangerous to work in fertilizer factories anywhere but especially in North Korea. And, of course, fertilizer can be dual use. 

But note how the Socialist Workers Paradise of North Korea and the Kim family regime treats its people.

 

8. N. Korea and China recently signed agreement aimed at easing border tensions

Daily NK · by Jang Seul Gi · September 25, 2020

Ease tensions but not trade restrictions? Note the subtitle. Failure to re-open the border means the 400+ markets will continue to be severely impacted, which will contribute to the widespread suffering of the Korean people in the North.

 

9. Repatriated North Korean escapee asks police to send her back to prison

Radio Free Asia · by Jien Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · September 23, 2020

The suffering many Korean in the North endure is just unimaginable.

 

10. North Korea arrests two for using fake money to buy food

Radio Free Asia · by Hyemin Son, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · September 23, 2020

North Korea is arguably the most proficient nation in the world at counterfeiting money (e.g, US one hundred-dollar bills). So, I guess it follows that it should be good at spotting counterfeits used among the population. But the real story is how much the Korean people are suffering and how desperate they are to survive.

 

11. Moon vows firm response to threats to S. Koreans' lives, safety

Yonhap News Agency · lcd@yna.co.kr · September 25, 2020

I have not been able to visit the new Special Warfare Command at Icheon. It is interesting that President Moon gave his address there.

But this statement begs the question: what actions will he take?

 

12. New defense minister holds first meeting with USFK commander

Yonhap News Agency · scaaet@yna.co.kr · September 25, 2020

I wish he had met with the ROK/US Combined Forces Command commander as well as the United Nations Command commander.  (note my attempt at humor for those who understand the complex command relationships in Korea)

 

13. N.K.'s apology shows hotline between Seoul, Pyongyang spy agencies possibly in operation

Yonhap News Agency · julesyi@yna.co.kr · September 25, 2020

I will bet there is even international cell phone connectivity. I bet the head of the NIS in the South and the head of the UFD and the RGB in North Korea have exchanged cell phone numbers. The "hotline" concept may be outdated. But it is fun for the press to speculate about it.

 

14. Pyongyang General Hospital: a bright white beacon after the rains

38 North · by Samantha J. Pitz · September 24, 2020

If and when complete, will the regime begin to announce that it has a coronavirus outbreak?

 

15. Moon's adviser suggests N.K. leader hold summit with Moon and explain about killing

Yonhap News Agency · by elly@yna.co.kr · September 25, 2020

Only Moon Chung-In could try to spin the North's brutal act (as well as its previous demolition of the liaison office) as a way to create a summit opportunity. But I doubt the North would come to a summit and "explain" its actions to President Moon.

 

16. For North Korea, UN membership is a key link to larger world

Miami Herald · by Foster Klug · September 24, 2020

 

17. What would Trump do with North Korea if he wins a second term?

National Interest · by Wallace C. Gregson · September 24, 2020

Good question. But what I want to know is what Kim Jong-Un will do if he is elected for a 2d term or if Biden wins.

 

18. North Korea's nuclear fishing lesson

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · September 24, 2020

An interesting assessment. I disagree with the characterization of being erratic. I think the military was acting as it was trained and within its orders. It may seem erratic to us, but I think it is an indication of the mindset that has been instilled in the military. But does that mean Kim is going to launch an ICBM with a nuclear warhead at the US? No one can know for sure, which is why we must never assume the enemy will not attack, but make ourselves invincible (Sun Tzu).

 

"Because arrogance is born in personal vanity, arrogant people are driven without mercy. They can never get enough power to fill the soul's needs or enough respect to overcome the fear that they deserve less than they are getting."

-Lewis B. Smedes

"Remind me to write an article on the compulsive reading of news. The theme will be that most neuroses can be traced to the unhealthy habit of wallowing in the troubles of five billion strangers."

- Robert A. Heinlein

"Foreknowledge cannot be gotten from ghosts and spirits, cannot be had by analogy, cannot be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of the enemy."

- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Categories: News