News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. North Korea: Our Army Is Fully Ready to Go into Action: KPA General Staff
2. North Korea Blows Up Liaison Office Shared With South Korea
3. B-1B can hold any target in the region, U.S. Air Force says
4. US Embassy in Seoul Displays, Then Removes Black Lives Matter Banner
5. N. Korea's recent threats unlikely to turn into major military provocation: experts
6. Understanding Kim Yo Jong's hard-line stance toward the South
7. North Korea could have 40 nuclear weapons, Swedish think tank says
8. N. Korea's threats aimed at testing S. Korea-U.S. alliance: ex-U.S. official
9. Behind the Ministry of People's Security's recent name change
10. North Korea threatens to send army into demilitarized border zone
11. S. Korea vows "strong" responses if N. Korea carries out provocation: defense ministry
12. Unification minister says explosion of liaison office was already preannounced
13. Eyes on Kaesong, Mt. Kumgang as N.K. threatens to send troops to disarmed border areas
14. On summit anniversary, Moon says give peace a chance
15. Does Trump Know How Scary Things Are Getting in Korea?
16. Finance ministry to brace for growing inter-Korean tension
17. Seoul’s appeasement policy towards Pyongyang
1. North Korea: Our Army Is Fully Ready to Go into Action: KPA General Staff
KCNA Watch June 16, 2020
The rhetoric continues. It sounds like the nKPA has taken the tasking for action to develop courses of action. It appears they may be planning to reoccupy the guard posts in the DMZ. This may mean the north is planning to abrogate the Comprehensive Military Agreement which had been touted as a success by the South. As we have heard in the responses from the South they want this agreement to be maintained. This appears to be a slap in the face to President Moon.
2. North Korea Blows Up Liaison Office Shared With South Korea
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · June 16, 2020
These reports are "blowing up" my news feed this morning. I wonder if the Moon administration has gotten the message. Kim Jong-un is not going to support President Moon's peace strategy and vision of peace and reconciliation. The question is whether these actions will cause the Moon Administration to admit that its strategy was based on erroneous assumptions about North Korea and will change its strategy to one that will protect South Korea from the evil of the Kim family regime? Or does Kim Jong-un think President Moon will double down on his desire for engagement and that these actions will lead to either sanctions relief or behind the scenes concessions (e.g., money) to try to bring Kim back to intra-Korean negotiations on relations. South Korea (and the ROK/US alliance) need to demonstrate strength and resolve in the face of these North Korean actions
3. B-1B can hold any target in the region, U.S. Air Force says
donga.com · by Sang-Ho Yun · June 12, 2020
This is a correct response to North Korean threats. I had not them sailed the "swan of death" but rather nicknamed "Bone." Rather than kowtow, appease, or give in to North Korean threats, demands, and coercion, we need to stand up to the regime and demonstrate strength and resolve. The Bone is a demonstration of strength and is especially useful because Kim fears its fire power. As the Air Force says it can “hold any target in the region at risk at a time and place of our choosing.”
4. US Embassy in Seoul Displays, Then Removes Black Lives Matter Banner
voanews.com · by William Gallo · June 16, 2020
It may not be fashionable in the US but demonstrating our values around the world is at the heart of what our State Department has to do on a daily basis. That was the message from the Embassy and the Ambassador. I think it was a mistake to order the removal.
5. N. Korea's recent threats unlikely to turn into major military provocation: experts
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 15, 2020
Never say never and as Sun Tzu said, "never assume the enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible." I think we are going to see continued rhetoric and perhaps some kind of provocation but as long as the Alliance remains strong it is unlikely the north will attack unless its survival is at stake. We could see the north play this out over the next few months, perhaps give us an October surprise to try to influence the November election. We may see some combination of continued rhetoric and provocations. That said we do not know what is really happening inside North Korea. Internal pressure could cause Kim to miscalculate and do something more extreme that the Choenan and Y-P do. We have to be ready and the most important aspect of readiness is a strong and focused alliance. We should look at North Korean actions as a wakeup call and ask if our house is in order. If it is not in order we need to make it so.
6. Understanding Kim Yo Jong's hard-line stance toward the South
dailynk.com · By Jang Seul Gi · June 16, 2020
Maybe the regime is experiencing a Game of Thrones scenario. If the speculation below is true and she is exerting this new power of her own volition she may end up like her uncle, Jang Song Taek. I think she can only exercise her current level of power with Kim Jong-un's blessing and approval. This is calculated by KJU and KYJ.
7. North Korea could have 40 nuclear weapons, Swedish think tank says
upi.com · Elizabeth Shim · June 15, 2020
This is a very important piece of information. Quote: "The report also said there are nine nuclear weapons states -- the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea." This is one of the key desires for the Kim regime: to be recognized as a nuclear power.
8. N. Korea's threats aimed at testing S. Korea-U.S. alliance: ex-U.S. official
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 16, 2020
It is not simply about testing the alliance. It is about driving a wedge in the alliance and splitting it altogether. There is a "simple" counter to this - the alliance demonstrates strength and resolve and shows no daylight within the alliance that can be exploited. But that is difficult to do if our alliance is now based on a transactional relationship instead of shared interests, shared values, and a shared strategy.
9. Behind the Ministry of People's Security's recent name change
dailynk.com · By Ha Yoon Ah · June 16, 2020
Despite the retirement of some of the older station chiefs this action may be nothing more than a "new circus tents but the same old clowns." Will there be substantive changes to this organization? I think not, except for the fact that perhaps the agency has been put in its place and in relationship to the superior MSS. But as noted in the article real power lies in the Organization and Guidance Department and the MSS.
10. North Korea threatens to send army into demilitarized border zone
BBC · June 16, 2020
The proper response is to first, increase ROK/US alliance readiness and second, ensure the protection of the escapees/defectors who have been threatened by the Kim family regime. Rather than throwing them under the bus and making their actions illegal, they should be provided protection and their work to support the human rights of the Korean people living in the north should be protected, supported, and enhanced by the ROK government.
11. S. Korea vows "strong" responses if N. Korea carries out provocation: defense ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 16, 2020
These are the right words. Does the Blue House agree with the Defense Ministry? But actions speak louder than words. And the Blue House must undergo a reassessment and a change to its strategy.
12. Unification minister says explosion of liaison office was already preannounced
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · June 16, 2020
I wish the Unification Minister would stop trying to make excuses for north Korea and downplay its actions. We must see the Kim family regime as it really is and not as we would wish it to be.
13. Eyes on Kaesong, Mt. Kumgang as N.K. threatens to send troops to disarmed border areas
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · June 16, 2020
You do have to admire the sophistication and creativity of the regime's provocations. They blew up something that symbolically fundamental to President Moon's vision and strategy that was paid for by South Korea, yet is inside North Korea. Kumgangsan could be next. The north has demanded the South's supposedly dilapidated structures be removed from the tourist area. Blowing them up would be another very symbolic message but something like the liaison office that would not cause a kinetic response from the South (as another shelling of P-Y do would). And of course besides the liaison office in Kaesong there is the whole industrial complex. Maybe we will see a structure blown up each week at KIC until someone gives in to the regime's blackmail diplomacy.
14. On summit anniversary, Moon says give peace a chance
Unfortunately this message runs counter to the reality of North Korea and the Kim family regime. Because President Moon wants to give peace every chance so badly it means the regime will exploit this to its advantage. We can no longer afford to be blind to the realities of North Korea
15. Does Trump Know How Scary Things Are Getting in Korea?
The Daily Beast · June 16, 2020
Unfortunately the message Kim wants us to have is the one in the title - North Korea is scary and we should be afraid. If the ROK/US alliance are strong and resolute and united in our strategy toward the north there is nothing to fear. Kim will not attack into strength. Ys he will continue to conduct provocations but notice how measured they have been so far (e.g. the "sensational" blowing up of the liaison office inside north Korean territory). Perhaps Kim is the one who is afraid because if he conducts another provocation like the Cheonan sinking and Y-P do shelling the response from the alliance could be much more decisive than the response in 2010. But the key condition for not being "scared" is a strong ROK/US alliance.
16. Finance ministry to brace for growing inter-Korean tension
en.yna.co.kr · by 남광식 · June 16, 2020
Interestingly the Korean stock market is rarely impacted by north-South tensions. If it is now it could be a significant sign in the lack of confidence in deterrence and defense in South Korea.
17. Seoul’s appeasement policy towards Pyongyang
donga.com by 한국어 June 16, 2020
Strong criticism of the Moon administration. But it is time to look in the mirror and splash some cold water on your face and ask have we made the right assumptions about the Kim family regime and is it time to rethink the strategy and go in another direction before it is too late? The statements (and today's action) over the past week should be a wake-up call for all those who think north Korea can and will act as a responsible member of the international community. It does not play by those rules. It only plays by its own rules.
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